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31. Can cities cope?

Author:
Francis Kibirige, John Martin Kewaza, Ronald Makanga Kakumba, Stevenson Ssevume Male, Muhammad Ssenkumba, George William Kayanja, Fred Male, and Pius Tibaingana
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
On 1 July 2020, less than a year before January 2021 presidential and parliamentary elections, Uganda’s minister of local government, acting under the Local Governments Act and with the approval of Parliament, elevated 10 of the 15 earmarked municipal councils across the country to city status (Parliament of the Republic of Uganda, 1997, 2020). City status, equal in stature to district local government status, is the highest level that local government units can attain under the current law and is synonymous with near-autonomy, including significant political influence and more control over resource mobilisation and use. Residents in the newly elevated city environs celebrated this administrative milestone amid surging expectations of immediate upgrades of public-services infrastructure and jobs. But the respective administrations awoke to the realities of over-stretched, outdated services infrastructure, and inadequate funding incapable of meeting the heightened level of demand. Can these new cities fulfil their mandate – even in the face of COVID-19-related impacts on the economy and personal living conditions – and cope with soaring public expectations? Evidence from the 2022 Afrobarometer survey suggests that it will not be easy, as the public mood, engagement with elected local leaders, and public service-delivery ratings are on the decline while mistrust, perceptions of official corruption, and resentment toward paying taxes are on the rise.
Topic:
Education, Health, Governance, Leadership, Institutions, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

32. Analysis of the Implementation of Auditor General's Recommendations in Local Governments to Enhance Accountability

Author:
David Andrew Omona, Isaac Katono, Jeremy Waiswa, Maurice Olobo, Alfred Wonyaka, and Simon Peter Mukisa
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This research paper presents the findings of the study on the status of implementation of the Auditor General’s (AG’s) recommendations in Local Governments (LGs) in Uganda. In implementing their mandates, local governments are expected to ensure compliance with existing laws and guidelines. As such, the Local Governments, through the National Performance Assessments conducted by the Office of the Prime Minister, are assessed on their level of compliance and accountability. The findings noted that contrary to the other requirements beyond the timely submission of information to the Permanent Secretary/ Secretary to the Treasury, the status of implementation of the Internal Auditor General and the Auditor General’s findings from the previous financial years remains a challenge for most Local Governments. It is on this basis that this study was conceptualised. The main objective of the study was to analyse the level of implementation of the Auditor General’s recommendations in local governments to enhance accountability. Specifically, the study sought to: (a) Establish the status of implementation of the Auditor General’s recommendations in selected districts, (b) Establish the status of Action on Parliament’s resolutions on District Local Governments (DLGs), Auditor General’s recommendations, (c) Examine challenges that affect the implementations of the Auditor General’s recommendations at District Local Governments and Parliament levels and (d) Make proposals to improve on the level of implementation and enforcement of the Auditor General’s recommendations. The study has important implications for promoting transparency, accountability, and good governance in local governments in Uganda. The methodology used in the study was generally qualitative in nature. Districts, Ministries Departments and Agencies were selected using maximum variation sampling, and the persons therein were selected using a purposive sampling strategy. Data was collected using document analysis, interviews, and focus group discussions with people at the entities under study. The data collected was analysed through examination, transcription, editing, and analysis of the qualitative data obtained from the field and facilitated by Atlas ti. Software and content analysis enabled a deeper exploration of the themes and narratives emerging from these qualitative data sources. In addition, the study was limited to 16 districts, including Amuria, Amuru, Arua, Gulu, Hoima, Kabarole, Kabale, Kaliro, Lira, Luwero, Mbarara, Moroto, Mukono, Sheema, Tororo, Wakiso, and select Ministries Departments and Agencies.
Topic:
Governance, Accountability, Transparency, Compliance, Local Government, and Implementation
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

33. Optimizing the Role of the Extractive Industries in Domestic Revenue Mobilization: Analysis of Uganda's Mining, Oil, and Gas Revenue Generation and Management Laws

Author:
Dan Ngabirano and Onesmus Mugyenyi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Dwindling aid and more recently the devastating effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic have rendered many African countries socially, politically, and economically vulnerable. Many are unable to effectively provide basic goods and services for their people, and their ability to pursue long-term development goals has been severely undermined. Given this situation, several African governments continue to fall behind in honouring their global commitments such as those made under the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the various regional and international human rights treaties that they are party to. To bridge the current funding gap, several African countries have turned to extensive borrowing with even more damaging consequences. In the face of this crisis, African countries have been urged to embrace and, in some instances, enhance their domestic revenue mobilization efforts as a more reliable and sustainable option. Uganda has heeded this call and in 2019, the country adopted a five-year Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy (DRMS). The key objective of this strategy is to improve revenue collection and lift the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio to between 16%-18%. More critically, DRMS recognizes the strategic role and potential contribution of oil, gas, and mineral revenues to national development. The DRMS underlines the need for the development of a strong extractive industries taxation fiscal regime. Given this reality, this study was conceived and set out to review and analyze the various laws, policies, and practices relevant to Uganda’s extractive industries fiscal regime, and to establish the extent to which these may enhance revenue generation, management, and equitable sharing of resource wealth. While focused on petroleum revenue generation, management and sharing in the Albertine region districts of Hoima, Buliisa and Kikuube, the study refers to experiences from gold mining in Mubende district. In this regard, the study established that gold mining in the district has for the most part been informal and unregulated. For this reason, both the central government and Mubende district local government have not been very successful in generating critical revenues from the largely artisanal and small-scale miners-dominated sector. Secondly, where revenue has been realized from gold mining in a few instances, it has been paid to the central government with less benefit to the district local government.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Mining, Revenue Management, and Extractive Industries
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

34. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:
Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:
International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

35. A Framework for Assessing Implementation of Economic Inclusion Programmes in Uganda

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
Reducing inequality and inclusive growth are at the top of the global development agenda. The theme of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”. SDG 8 specifi cally addresses inclusive and sustainable growth. The eradication of poverty and attaining middle income status remains Uganda’s main national development goal as laid out in the National Development Plan (NDP III) 2020/21 – 2024/25. Whereas Uganda experienced sustained economic growth during the pre-Covid-19 period, there were indications that poverty was not reducing, and that inequality was increasing. The Covid-19 pandemic and prolonged lock down exacerbated the situation with almost 3% of the people falling into poverty and compounding inequality. As the world and the country builds back, there is need for specifi c focus of those excluded from economic opportunities. Economic Empowerment Programmes (EIPs) are increasingly being used the world over as vehicles for achieving inclusive economic growth. EIPs have been described as ‘a bundle of coordinated multidimensional interventions that support individuals, households and communities in increasing incomes and assets. For Uganda, implementation of the EIP has been aff ected by poor design and implementation as well as corruption that have rendered the EIPs ineff ective. At the same time, performance evaluations of the EIPs undertaken have had limited infl uence on the design of subsequent programmes. In many cases same interventions have been repackaged under diff erent names and touted as new programmes. There is no doubt that improving the plight of the poor and other categories of people excluded from economic opportunities will require eff ective implementation of EIPs. This Framework for Assessing Implementation of EIPs in Uganda is part of eff orts to improve implementation of the EIP. It is motivated by the inadequacy of existing frameworks to cause change in the design and execution of EIPs in Uganda. The framework is rooted in social accountability and builds on previous works of the Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE) on governance and public expenditure analysis and monitoring. The theory of change for this EIP framework is assess, disseminate, advocate. By assessing the designs and implementation of EIPs and disseminating the fi ndings of the assessment to implementers and benefi ciaries and using the fi ndings for advocacy, then the design and implementation of EIPs will improve and with it the likelihood of achieving programme outcomes and ultimately impact. The framework has six assessment areas namely programme design, effi cacy, quality of M&E, effi ciency, compliance, and risk management. It is guided by the following principles: social accountability, participation, empowerment for engagement, learning and optimisation.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Policy Implementation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

36. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:
Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:
Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

37. Unresponsive and corrupt? Ugandan MPs hold key to how citizens perceive them

Author:
Matthias Krönke and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Uganda’s legislature is made up of 556 members of Parliament (MPs) who are meant to represent and serve their constituents and oversee the government’s actions. Since President Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party came to power in 1986 and appointed all members of Parliament, the country’s legislature has changed in several important ways (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009). First, today all MPs are either directly elected via a first-past-the-post system or indirectly elected via special electoral colleges. Second, the number of parliamentarians has almost doubled over 25 years, from 295 in the 6th Parliament (1996-2001) to 556 in the current 11th Parliament (Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1996; Parliament of Uganda, 2022).1 This drastic increase can be attributed to the continued creation of new constituencies and the allocation of parliamentary seats for special-interest groups. Proponents of this development say it reflects citizens’ demands, but critics describe it as part of a political strategy to protect and grow the ruling party’s seat share in Parliament by increasing the number of constituencies in NRM strongholds (Nakatudde, 2020; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). This debate has now entered a new phase with the recent ruling by the country’s Constitutional Court that Parliament and the Electoral Commission violated articles 51 and 63 of the Constitution by creating new constituencies that do not meet the population quota, based on data from the 2002 and 2014 census counts. The upshot of this ruling are proposals to downsize Uganda’s Parliament and redraw constituency boundaries (Barigaba, 2022). Third, the operating costs of the growing Parliament (MP and staff salaries, allowances, etc.) have increased drastically over the past two decades. Today Ugandan MPs’ salaries (35 million Uganda shillings, or about USD 9,700, per month) surpass those of most MPs elsewhere in Africa and in the European Union (BusinessTech, 2017; Olukya, 2021; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). The cost of running Uganda’s 11th Parliament was expected to increase by more than 50 billion Ugandan shillings (USD 14.1 million), a substantial increase compared to the previous Parliament (Mufumba, 2021). Fourth, the share of MPs who return to Parliament after their first term in office continues to decrease. While about 50% of MPs did not return for a second term in the 6th (1996-2001) and 7th (2001-2006) Parliaments, this rate has increased to 53% (2006-2011), 55% (2011-2016), and 58% (2016-2021) in subsequent Parliaments. Most recently, of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, 319 were not voted back to the 11th Parliament (2021-2026), while 31 did not contest or chose to run for other offices, and only 107 MPs returned (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009; Forum for Women in Democracy, 2016; Independent, 2021). How do these changes affect 1) how citizens relate to their elected representatives and 2) how MPs address the needs of ordinary citizens? More broadly, are citizens being served by their MPs? To answer these questions, this policy paper begins by clarifying the foundations of the citizen-MP relationship and outlining the four key roles that MPs are generally expected to fulfil. The subsequent sections assess their performance in these roles against citizen expectations and other indicators. We find that Ugandans are becoming increasingly aware of their role in holding their MPs accountable. Most citizens are dissatisfied with how their MPs are doing their jobs, perceive them as corrupt, and say MPs don’t listen to constituents’ concerns. Residents of the Central region and Kampala are particularly critical of their MPs’ performance, probably due at least in part to high constituent-to-MP ratios in those areas. Citizens’ assessments of MP performance are associated with MPs’ perceived responsiveness and corruption as well as whether citizens have had contact with their MPs. In contrast, citizens’ demographic characteristics and views about democracy do not seem to drive their views of their elected representatives. There are two clear policy implications of these findings. First, at the institutional level, it is important to even out the citizen-to-MP ratios across the country. This is in line with the recent constitutional court ruling to base the creation of constituencies on census data. The second policy implication of our findings is that MPs have it in their own hands to change how citizens view their performance by improving on how they engage with them.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

38. The effectiveness of social protection in five African countries through normal times and times of crisis

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Iva V. Tasseva, and Gemma Wright
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We study the effectiveness of social protection benefits in reducing income and consumption poverty in five sub-Saharan African countries—Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia—in normal times and times of widespread economic crisis. Using tax–benefit microsimulation models with representative household survey data, first we estimate the coverage of benefits and their poverty-reducing effects in each country. Second, we study the ability of benefit automatic stabilizers to reduce losses in incomes and consumption in times of crisis, by simulating hypothetical reductions to earnings and employment. Although the coverage of benefits is fairly high in Ghana and Zambia, the poverty-reducing impact of benefits in all five countries is low in normal times. The effectiveness of benefits to stabilize income and consumption in times of crisis is also limited because many benefits are linked to proxies of income, not income itself, or have tight eligibility criteria. Social assistance programmes are typically unresponsive to losses in household earnings and employment and provide limited support for unemployed people.
Topic:
Poverty, Crisis Management, Economic Crisis, and Income
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia, and Ghana

39. New Producer Contract Terms and Uncertainty: Lessons From the Recent Past

Author:
Patrick Heller, Perrine Toledano, Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, and David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The petroleum industry is volatile, and governments in “new producer” countries have operated at a significant information disadvantage when negotiating with international oil companies. This challenge is growing today; new producer countries face intensifying questions around whether to offer fiscal incentives to maintain investment in the face of 1) the pandemic-induced volatility in oil prices and 2) long-term questions about the future of the industry in the face of the climate crisis and the global energy transition. This confluence of short-term and long-term uncertainty is prompting a reexamination of the narrative that once took hold in many new producer countries. The traditional story was one of linear progression from being non-producers to small levels of production to ultimately having oil and gas become a major economic contributor over the long term. This notion of progression was associated with a commonly held theory: After a country’s first major discovery, the geological risk that wells will be dry was expected to decrease. Countries could therefore shift from a position of having to grant tax breaks (and other concessions) to international investors, to taking a tougher stance in laws and negotiations for new projects going forward. In this paper we examine whether this theory has been borne out in practice and make recommendations to support new producers in their navigation of the uncertainty associated with the energy transition. Among the eight “new producer” countries, for which we analyzed a total of 26 contracts signed before and 25 contracts signed after discovery events (all occurring between 2001 and 2014), the evidence is mixed. Only three of the eight countries in our sample—Ghana, Mozambique and Uganda—demonstrated a clear pattern in the direction of more stringent terms in post-discovery contracts. They featured definitive steps to increase some of the obligations of contractors to the state, and no significant terms that became less stringent. Five out of eight countries did not meaningfully alter their approach to gain greater concessions from their company partners.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Governance, Gas, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, and Ghana

40. Increasing Salience and Strategic Engagement for Women Economic Empowerment, Women Empowerment Collectives, and Gender Integration in Uganda

Author:
Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Florence Kuteesa, Emmanuel Keith Kisaame, Richard Ayesigwa, Phoebe Atukunda, and Philemon Okillong
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This study assessed the salience and strategic engagement for women economic empowerment, women empowerment collectives, and gender integration in Uganda. It delivers the roadmap for effective engagement of Women Economic Empowerment, Women Empowerment Collectives, and Gender Integration to refocus strategies for women economic empowerment, reflecting on effective stakeholders' engagement and pursuing commitment to leverage the synergies for WEE in a systematic and coordinated manner.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Economy, Empowerment, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa