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11. Uganda’s Oil Refinery: Gauging the Government’s Stake

Author:
Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Uganda’s planned oil refinery will have several benefits for the country, including for its security of fuel supply and balance of payments. The refinery could be reasonably profitable, generating an internal rate of return of 13 percent in a baseline scenario. The government is planning to take a 40 percent stake but may ultimately pay a higher price for this equity than it expects. Even if it borrows to cover its upfront contribution to costs, it will need to divert around $330 million in present value terms from the national budget for loan repayments in the 2030s. This price will increase if downside risks, such as cost overruns or lower global oil prices, materialize. The government can take several steps to increase interest from other investors, including by reducing the risk of cost overruns, ensuring deregulated product prices continue, and providing less risky forms of state support such as tax incentives. These should reduce the need for the government to take a large stake.
Topic:
Oil, Regulation, and Investment
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

12. How Donors Can Better Support Urban Refugees in Kampala and Nairobi

Author:
Johnstone Kotut, Anneleen Vos, Helen Dempster, and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The majority of refugees worldwide live in urban areas. It is often assumed that these urban-based refugees are self-reliant, and therefore no longer require external support. This paper challenges this assumption by reviewing secondary literature on the experience of 136,887 refugees who live in Kampala, Uganda and the 96,348 refugees who live in Nairobi, Kenya. It identifies three distinct challenges that these urban-based refugees face compared to their camp- and settlement-based peers: access to essential services without recognised documentation, access to decent housing, and access to social and professional networks. It then reviews whether and how the largest bilateral and multilateral donors in Uganda and Kenya support urban-based refugees, and concludes by offering recommendations for those donors interested in expanding their support. While this paper and its recommendations have specific relevance for those urban-based refugees in Kampala and Nairobi, they have broader relevance to urban refugee populations in all low- and middle-income countries.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Donors
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

13. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

14. CTC Sentinel: March 2024 Issue

Author:
Barak Mendelsohn, Paul Cruickshank, Caleb Weiss, and Ryan O'Farrell
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Barak Mendelsohn examines the future of the jihadi movement. His article is the second in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that examines emerging counterterrorism challenges and long-term developments. Mendelsohn writes that over 20 years after 9/11, “jihadi violence in the West is low, but the number of Sunni jihadi outfits around the world has increased. And while the central leaderships of both al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State appear in tatters, many of their affiliates are experiencing expansion.” He argues that “anti-regime grievances, the appeal of religious ideology, and the ability to hurt, are likely to maintain jihadism as a viable resistance ideology.” He further warns that “jihadism is still a powerful force and is making inroads in various regions” and that “a more modest jihadi strategy with a regional focus is offering jihadis a new path forward.” But, he notes, “a sustainable jihadi success would require moderation that is simply antithetical to the nature of the ideology.” Our interview is with Mitchell D. Silber, the executive director of the Community Security Initiative, an intiative “created by the leading organizations in the Jewish community in New York to protect the Jewish population and Jewish institutions in the Greater New York City metro area.” He previously served as Director of Intelligence Analysis at the New York City Police Department. Silber describes how in the months since the October 7 attacks in Israel, there has been a surge in antisemitic threats and violence in the greater New York area. “This is kind of like a category five storm. Five times the amount of hateful postings that our intelligence desk had to vet through,” he says, adding that “since October 7, 2023, there have been at least 23 anti-Jewish assaults in New York City.” He outlines how in response to these grave threats, the Jewish “community, leadership, and organizations have rallied, have risen to the occasion, and are now creating the security architecture that we never had before in the United States in order to meet the moment.” Finally, Caleb Weiss and Ryan O’Farrell examine how Operation Shujaa, launched in late 2021 by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda against the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) in the border regions of the DRC near Uganda, has degraded the ability of the group to disseminate propaganda via the Islamic State’s central media apparatus. They write: “While still a serious and deadly threat inside Congo and beyond, [ISCAP’s] propaganda output is a shell of its former self. This decline is, in part, thanks to the current joint Ugandan-Congolese operations against it.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, Antisemitism, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, New York, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Global Focus, and United States of America

15. The Functionality of Uganda’s Single Spine Agricultural Extension System

Author:
Elijah Dickens Mushemeza
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This report presents the findings and discussions on the functionality of the single-spine agricultural extension system in Uganda. The recommendations from the research process will potentially inform the implementation of the new national agricultural extension strategy aligned to the NDP III, the Parish Model and the national agenda of socio-economic transformation. The single spine extension system was conceptualized as a well-coordinated, harmonized, public sectorled pluralistic extension system. The aim was to eliminate the parallel institutional arrangements that emerged during the NAADS program implementation. It aims at enhancing agricultural production and productivity, value addition, food security, household income and export. In addition, it focuses on building the capacity of individual farmers and farmer institutions to have greater access to and control over structures and processes that transform their resources and assets into the outcomes that they desire to achieve their goals. The study sought to address four objectives: (i) assessing the effectiveness of coordination among key actors (including clarity of mandates) in the delivery of agricultural extension; (ii) assessing the functionality of transparency and accountability mechanisms in the single spine agricultural extension system; (iii) assessing the performance of the system in the attainment of key agricultural extension outcomes; and (iii) assessing the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension services. The report gives a background to the reform and an overview of the strategy that has been used to implement it. The report gives the methodology utilised in the research process, the limitations of the study and how methodological challenges were addressed. The report brings out the findings in relation to the objectives set and in particular; on coordination dilemmas, transparency and accountability mechanisms, and performance of the system and the effects of COVID-19 on the delivery of agricultural extension service.
Topic:
Agriculture, Governance, Reform, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

16. Compliance Assessment of the FY 2023/24 Budget to Climate Change Interventions in the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII)

Author:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that climate change is occurring in the world today. Climate change is a global development challenge with adverse effects manifested in different ways at national and local levels especially in the vulnerable least prepared countries like Uganda. It is associated with negative severe effects on human well-being and ecosystems which equally hinders the achievement of sustainable development and social equity goals hence becoming one of the drivers of exclusion. This makes it an urgent problem that requires global, regional and national efforts towards effective mitigation and adaptation responses. Swift effective response to climate change could significantly contribute to the attainment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while delayed action is predicted to have severe and irreversible consequences for natural and human systems. Uganda’s frameworks to sustainable development (Uganda’s Vision 2040, the NDP III, sectoral policies and plans) highlight climate change as an outstanding development challenge. This implies that the attainment of the country’s long-term development goals and the building of resilient communities that will mitigate and adapt to climate change largely depends on the significant allocation of financial resources to climate change interventions specified in the development frameworks. The NDPIII 2020/21-2024/25) not only integrates climate change across all its twenty (20) programmes but also provides for their strategic interventions and targets. This integration trickles down to the NDPIII Results Framework and Programme Implementation Action Plans (PEAPs) and is also supposed to fully cascade down to the national budget. This report presents the compliance assessment of the FY 2023/24 budget to climate change interventions in the third National Development Plan (NDPIII) based on ten (10) priority programmes selected due to their real or potential contribution to climate change and their strategic importance to the development process. Overall, the analysis revealed that the FY2023/24 Annual Budget (AB) to climate change interventions in NDP III is unsatisfactory at 55.35 percent which is slightly lower than last year’s compliance level of 64.7 percent. However, there were variations in the compliance levels of the different programmes. The programmes on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources programme (83.3%), and Sustainable Minerals Development programme (80%) had a satisfactory level of compliance. On the other hand, the programmes of Human Capital Development (62.5%), Integrated transport infrastructure and services (61.1%), and Tourism development (66.7%) had a moderately satisfactory level of compliance. Lastly, the programmes of Sustainable Urbanisation and housing (56.7%), Natural Resources, Environment, Climate Change, Water and Land Management (56.3%), Agro-industrialization programme (28%), Digital transformation (40%), Private Sector Development (0%) had a far below an unsatisfactory level of compliance (below 60%).
Topic:
Climate Change, Budget, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

17. A Bid to Contain Pressure: What are the motives behind Iranian President's East Africa tour?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went on a trip to Africa from July 11 to 13, 2023, during which he visited Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on invitations from the leaders of the three countries, President William Ruto, Yoweri Museveni and President Emmerson Mnangagwa, respectively. Raisi led a high-level delegation including First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Health Minister Behrouz Aghaei, and Minister of Agriculture Seyyed Javad Sadati Nejad, and several other high-ranking officials and businessmen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Iran, Middle East, Zimbabwe, and East Africa

18. Does Project-Level Aid for Water and Sanitation Improve Child Health Outcomes? Evidence from Household Panel Data in Uganda

Author:
Lynda Pickbourn, Raymond Caraher, and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the effectiveness of aid to the water, sanitation, and hygiene sector (WASH aid) have focused primarily on access to these services as the benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of aid in this sector. Given the importance of WASH services for public health outcomes, the effectiveness of WASH aid should also be evaluated in terms of its impact on health outcomes. This is especially important in low- and middle-income countries where achieving sustained improvements in child health outcomes remains a challenge. This paper uses geocoded sub-national data on the location of WASH aid projects in Uganda in conjunction with six waves of nationally representative household-level panel survey data to examine the impact of aid-funded WASH projects on the probability of stunting among Ugandan children and infants. Analysing aid effectiveness at the sub-national level avoids the problems of cross-country heterogeneity in aid effectiveness that plagues other studies. Results of the difference-in-differences regression analysis suggest that proximity to an aid-funded WASH project reduces the probability of stunting by 14–21 per cent. The results suggest that scaling up aid to the WASH sector can help improve child health outcomes in the country.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Water, Sanitation, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

19. Advancing Victims’ Rights and Rebuilding Just Communities: Local Strategies for Achieving Reparation as a Part of Sustainable Development

Author:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
This comparative study examines strategies used by local actors to facilitate the operationalization of reparations for victims of widespread human rights violations, while highlighting the synergies between these efforts and sustainable development. The study is based on the fieldwork of ICTJ and its partners in four contexts—Colombia, The Gambia, Tunisia, and Uganda. These countries represent a range of different situations, where the progress made, challenges faced, and overall political and institutional contexts vary significantly. Nonetheless, comparison of the approaches used across the cases offers valuable insights for those working in these and other contexts. In The Gambia, the truth commission and legislation for reparations have created expectations among victims, but a program has yet to be implemented. In Uganda, the legal and policy framework for reparations exists, but there is no enabling legislation or mechanism to provide them as a result of stalled political will. In Tunisia, the truth commission recommended reparations, but the political and economic situation make operationalization unlikely. In Colombia, challenges faced by reparations have informed the design of restorative sanctions that include reparative projects but are yet to be implemented. The major insights gained from this comparative study relate to the specific ways in which reparations can contribute to individual and community well-being and development; innovative and effective approaches to ensuring victims and communities receive reparations and support, including through collective action, engagement with government, and grassroots initiatives; the integration of victims’ needs and priorities into development policies and models; and the reparative elements of complementary accountability and reform measures that are participatory, address corruption and marginalization, and contribute to gender justice and equality. The report offers practical guidance and policy recommendations for advancing reparations as an integral element of broader societal efforts to facilitate inclusion, justice, peace, and development.
Topic:
Human Rights, Sustainable Development Goals, Accountability, Reparations, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Colombia, South America, Tunisia, and Gambia

20. Migration and Displacement in Secondary Cities: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda

Author:
Samuel Davidoff-Gore and Camille Le Coz
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The world is becoming increasingly urbanized, driven both by long-standing patterns of rural-urban migration and the growth of new small and mid-sized cities. While sprawling megacities often receive the most policy and public attention, secondary cities are some of the fastest growing in many parts of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. Migrants and displaced persons, often drawn to small and mid-sized cities by the promise of greater economic opportunities and better access to services than exist in rural areas, can nonetheless face a variety of challenges, as can the communities in which they settle. This study explores these dynamics in Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda. These countries and the studied cities within them are emblematic of urbanization trends in West and East Africa, respectively, and they illustrate a range of migration and displacement experiences and policy approaches that offer lessons for refugee- and migrant-receiving secondary cities. The report examines common challenges to migrants’ socioeconomic inclusion in secondary cities, including the gender dynamics at play beneath broader trends. It also looks at how cities, local representatives of the central government, and civil-society organizations have sought to respond to migration-related challenges and factors that have limited their actions. The report is part of a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation's Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
Topic:
Migration, Urbanization, Employment, Economy, Displacement, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Côte d'Ivoire