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421. The end of the EU project in Turkey? Determinants of Turkey's EU bid under the AKP regime

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Ever since the founding of the Republic in 1923, the idea of making Turkey a European country has been a major component of the nation-building project, although Europe has also been perceived as a threat. The incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) embarked on an EU-inspired reform project at first, but has subsequently taken an increasingly anti-European position. Turkey's EU bid under the AKP government needs to be seen within the context of the domestic power struggle, whose origins can be traced to two opposing modernization alternatives: radical and Islamic. Within the domestic power struggle, the AKP has used the EU process as a tool to de-legitimize the secularist state elite-lite, composed of the armed forces and the judiciary. After having consolidated its hegemony, the AKP abandoned its EU aspirations, and there is currently very little societal pressure from the AKP constituency to continue the EU reforms.
Topic:
Power Politics, Regime Change, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

422. "Don't poke the Russian bear": Turkish policy in the Ukrainian crisis

Author:
Balkan Devlen
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
From the start of the Ukrainian crisis Turkey kept a low profile and adopted a strategy best described as "don't poke the Russian bear". Russia is a major Turkish trading partner and Turkey relies heavily on Russian natural gas for its energy needs, while Turkish prime minister Erdogan has also been dealing with serious domestic challenges in the last year. Therefore, due to both external and internal factors, Turkey will avoid confronting Russia directly and will pass the buck to the U.S. and EU. In the short to medium term there are three plausible scenarios under which Turkey will change its current policy. They include the oppression of Crimean Tatars by the Russian authorities; military confrontation in the Black Sea between Russia and NATO; or a more unified, tougher stance against Russia by the West. In the long term Turkey most likely will revert to its traditional role of balancing Russia by strengthening its ties with the West, while reducing its energy dependence on Russia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Asia

423. Critical Junctures, Catalysts, and Democratic Consolidation in Turkey

Author:
Ramazan Kiling
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Ramazan Kilinç argues that at critical junctures, structural factors weaken and actors are enabled to gain strength for future political trajectories. He applies this argument to democratic consolidation in Turkey. He finds that the 1997 military intervention unintentionally led to the eventual outcome of democratic consolidation. In the absence of this catalyst, it might have taken several more years for structural factors to generate democratization.
Political Geography:
Turkey

424. Nowhere May They Roam: Ottoman Area-Denial Operations and Lessons for the Strait of Hormuz

Author:
Timothy Choi
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
On March 18th, 1915, a combined fleet of British and French battleships attempted to force their way through the Dardanelles, the southern half of the Turkish Straits that connected the Mediterranean with the Black Sea. "Attempted" is the key word, for it was a spectacular failure. Two of the greatest navies in the world had failed to enforce their will upon the puny and seemingly obsolete forces of the Ottoman Empire, sparking the infamous and bloody Gallipoli land campaign.
Political Geography:
United States and Turkey

425. A Quick Glance at the History of Elections in Turkey

Author:
Ibrahim Dalmis
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Generally speaking, two traditions – right-wing politics and the Left – have dominated Turkish politics over the years. This study aims to analyze historic election results in order to determine roughly how much popular support each political movement enjoys in the country. Starting from transition to multi-party system in Turkey, one can see the emergence of several ideologies, groups and political parties that appeal to various social classes. Although military interventions caused a rupture in the democratization of the country, there has been a lively political environment with dynamic party politics and elections. During the span of Turkish democracy, a number parties were established and closed. This article examines the trajectory of elections and party perfomances with a special emphasis on ideology and electoral base of the parties.
Topic:
Environment
Political Geography:
Turkey

426. The AK Party: Dominant Party, New Turkey and Polarization

Author:
E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
One of the fiercest electoral battles fought in the Turkish political history, the March 30, 2014 local elections yielded results akin to an outcome of a general election. The AK Party's victory in the ballot box has serious implications for Turkish politics and society in general. This paper will thus discuss and explain the implications of the elections for the AK Party' metamorphosis into a dominant party. The paper will also shed light on how the AK Party's consolidation of its power has led to the emegence of a "New Turkey." Last, the article will point to the increased polarization in Turkish society, an externality of the AK Party's dominant party status and the New Turkey.
Political Geography:
Turkey

427. The Structural Causes of Political Crisis in Turkey

Author:
Osman Can
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The December 17th process was started allegedly by a political move by the Gülen movement, which, until recently, had been seen as a religious organization. As the government and the parliament – institutions of democratic representation – countered this move through the use of their constitutional powers, the debate has turned into a totalistic and ontological struggle. However, very few people argue that the problems are actually not independent of the constitutional system of the Turkish Republic, but rather unavoidable consequences of the existing system. If we consider the political steps and strategies pursued by the Gülen movement, we see that we are faced with the most familiar game in Turkish political history, namely the shaping of politics through the use of state institutions.
Topic:
History
Political Geography:
Turkey

428. Strengths and Constraints of Turkish Policy in the South Caucasus

Author:
Bayram Balci
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Just after the end of the Soviet Union and the emergence of three independent states in the South Caucasus Turkey started to manifest a real interest for this region. Energy issue, which is the key issue in this Turkish policy since the beginning, is expected to remain the key priority for Turkey because of its growing economy. Ankara tries to have a balanced relations with the three South Caucasian countries, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, but for multiple reasons, Turkey's policy in the South Caucasus is still determined by its relations with Azerbaijan who is the best ally and economic partner for Ankara.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Soviet Union, and Georgia

429. The Impact of the "New" Zero Problems Policy and the Arab Spring on the Relations between Turkey and Lebanese Factions

Author:
Mustafa Yetim and Bilal Hamade
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
As the Arab Spring unfolds, a new power configuration is emerging in the Middle East. Turkey is at the center of the new setting, with a fully engaged leadership role that was adopted by the ruling AK Party. In the Levant area, Ankara's influence is even greater due to Turkey's full support of the Syrian opposition against the Syrian Baath regime. In this context, it becomes clear that the increasingly involved Turkish role in the region has direct and indirect effects on the stability of countries in the Levant, one of which is Lebanon.
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

430. The Longest Year of Turkish Politics: 2014

Author:
Taha Ozhan
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Like all long political years, the year 2014 did not begin on January 1st; rather, 2014 politically began at the end of May with the Taksim events. Nevertheless, the year may end on an optimistic note. It could be said that, unless the date of the upcoming general elections change, the long political year of 2014 will extend to June 2015. Had the government been overthrown by the police-judiciary coup in December 17th., Turkey would have been sentenced to a neo-tutelage regime for many years to come. The first phase of the tripartite elections race in Turkey ended with Erdogan's victory. The upcoming presidential elections in August 2014 will be the second phase. The March 30 elections clearly demonstrated that the AK Party will continue to play an important part in Turkey's political scene for years to come.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Turkey and India