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1. The New Syria and the Regional Balance of Power

Author:
Amjed Rasheed
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December 2024 and the subsequent rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now leading the Syrian interim government in the country, have dramatically shaped the regional balance of power. Remarkably, the HTS-led interim government has been making some serious attempts to consolidate its control, and boost legitimacy, but also rebuild Syria after 14 years of civil war and a half-a-century of Assad dynasty rule. In its pursuit to achieve these ends, the interim government has launched diplomatic efforts toward regional and international powerhouses. Everybody, including Russia, is currently welcome to visit Damascus. Yet there is also failure so far to open up the transition to others, which could generate grievances and lead to disruptive regional interference. While the success of such a policy remains to be gauged, the HTS approach to accommodate regional contradiction is worth explaining.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

2. An analysis of the impact of Turkish attacks on Syria on future normalization efforts between the two nations

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In a televised address after a Cabinet meeting on January 16, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirmed his country's commitment to eliminating what he referred to as "terrorist hideouts" in Syria. These areas extend from Tel Rifaat to Ain al-Arab, and from Hasakah to Manbij. Erdogan stressed, “Our military presence beyond our borders is critical to the national security of our country and for the peace of our citizens. There’s no turning back from this.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, Bashar al-Assad, and PKK
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

3. Turkish-Syrian Rapprochement: A Path Studded with Conflicting Aims

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkish President Erdoğan has expressed his desire to meet with Syrian President Assad after years of hostility. However, reconciliation is complex due to conflicting goals: Erdoğan seeks to legitimise arrangements securing his gains, while Assad demands a full Turkish withdrawal from Syrian affairs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4. Erdoğan and Asad’s Slow Rapprochement: Too Weak to Make a Deal

Author:
Joel Parker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest edition of Turkeyscope, Joel Parker discusses the chances of a rapprochement between Turkey and Syria. He argues that the Syrian regime will not accept full normalization without an end to Turkish military presence in northeastern Syria, which is unlikely to happen.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

5. Türkiye’s and the EU’s Coordinated and Divergent Approaches to the 2011 Syrian Crisis

Author:
Yusuf Avar
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis has prompted immediate reactions from the EU and a few other countries, including the US, Russia, and Türkiye, as well as some of their proxies. This research purposefully limits itself to examining Türkiye’s and the EU’s reactions to the Syrian civil war. According to the study’s results Türkiye and the EU have differences and similarities in six key policy areas: (1) Assad’s oppressive actions against its people drew criticism from Türkiye and the EU. (2) Türkiye and the EU have suffered as a result of the ISIS danger resulting from the Syrian civil conflict. (3) Türkiye and the EU both have humanitarian concerns and have made an effort to assist Syrian refugees. (4) Türkiye has engaged in two military operations in northern Syria in opposition to the YPG. The EU denounced these military maneuvers by Türkiye. (5) The EU and Türkiye have had discussions over the issue of foreign fighters. The EU criticized Türkiye as it failed to secure its borders, and as a result, foreign fighters utilized the country as a transit between Syria and European nations. (6) Despite opposition from the EU, Türkiye has insisted on creating a “safe zone” in Syria for Syrian refugees.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

6. Relations Between Russia and Türkiye in The Context of The Syrian Conflict: From Edge of the War to Strategic Cooperation

Author:
Cenk Özatıcı and Polat Üründül
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article analyses the changing dynamics in Turkish-Russian relations during the Syrian civil war. The Syrian civil war has had a significant impact on relations between Türkiye and Russia. Initially, at odds over Türkiye’s support for Syrian opposition forces and Russia’s support for the Assad regime, tensions peaked when the Turks shot down a Russian warplane. This paper argues that Türkiye’s security concerns, including threats from the Syrian regime and the PYD and Russia’s desire to remove obstacles to its national interests in Syria, have led to strategic cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s pragmatic approach to Türkiye’s security needs and its military dominance in Syria encouraged Türkiye to cooperate with the Russians. This cooperation, evident in projects such as the Astana process and arms deals, was also seen as an opportunity by Russia to weaken NATO and strengthen the Assad regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Strategic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

7. A Fractured Border: Syria, Türkiye, and Cantonization

Author:
Armenak Tokmajyan and Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Several factors related to the civil war in Syria have engendered the cantonization of the country’s north. From east to west, five northern border regions are to various degrees self-governing, though four are backed by, and even dependent on, Türkiye. Ongoing indirect negotiations between Türkiye and Syria—which were previously at loggerheads—may result in an adjustment of the boundaries of these cantons, but will not alter, let alone reverse, the phenomenon of cantonization.
Topic:
Governance, Syrian War, Borders, and Cantonization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

8. Erdoğan’s Syria Policy: Continuation of the Status Quo?

Author:
Sinem Adar
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Erdoğan’s victory was driven by rhetoric stoking further conflict with Kurdish actors in Turkey and Syria. He is unlikely to back down from this position in the future. Turkey will seek to balance its “forever war” with the PKK against desires to repatriate Syrian refugees in potential negotiations with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Refugees, Syrian War, Kurds, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

9. Escape from the Syrian Labyrinth: A Road Map

Author:
Michael Doran and Omer Ozkizilcik
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The Ukraine war has led Americans to rediscover what first drew them, some seven decades ago, into a military alliance with the Turks: Turkey’s indispensability as a counterweight to Russia. However, even as Washington and Ankara have found common cause in Ukraine, they continue to work at cross purposes in Syria. In a demonstration of bold, fresh, and practical thinking, Turkish scholar Ömer Özkizilcik offers us a road map for aligning American and Turkish policies there too. But first, to set the stage for Özkizilcik’s plan, Hudson Senior Fellow Michael Doran surveys the strategic logic and the diplomatic context that make the road map compulsory reading.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

10. From aid to inclusion: A better way to help Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan

Author:
Kelly Petillo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The number of Syrian refugees attempting to enter Europe has doubled in the last two years. This shift is driven by growing hostility towards Syrian refugees in host states Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Governments in these countries are ratcheting up the political rhetoric and deploying new ways to force Syrians to return. Home-grown economic and social pressures, and problems caused by the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, contribute to these tensions. Europeans’ support for Syrian refugees remains humanitarian-led and short-termist. The EU and its member states should switch to a longer-term ‘inclusion’ approach that helps Syrians live in dignity in their host countries. This new approach would also benefit local communities, as well as discourage Syrians from making the dangerous journey to Europe.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Syrian War, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan