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201. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

202. The Defense Monitor: How Little is Enough: U.S. End–Use Monitoring and Oversight of the Weapons Trade

Author:
Fleur A. Burke
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
When the united states began airstrikes in Afghanistan in October 2001, U.S. planes were threatened by Stinger missiles that had been provided to the mujaheddin by the United States in the 1980s. Since at least the mid-1990s, the use of legally exported U.S. weaponry to bomb and burn Kurdish villages in southeastern Turkey has been documented. Turkish forces have also used U.S.-supplied light weaponry in specific human rights violations, ranging from torture to indiscriminate firing on civilians.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Turkey

203. Bigger EU, Wider CFSP, Stronger ESDP?

Author:
Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Last spring, the research team of the then WEU Institute for Security Studies came up with the idea of carrying out a targeted screening of the prevailing (and evolving) views on CFSP and ESDP in the candidate countries. In order to preserve some homogeneity and comparability, the screening would be limited to the ten Central European applicants. In fact, the Mediterranean candidates (Cyprus and Malta, let alone Turkey) pose completely different problems, while the whole exercise was intended to try and assess what CFSP/ESDP means to the part of Europe that was 'kidnapped' for almost half a century – according to Milan Kundera's well-known metaphor from the 1980s – and is now about to 'return' where it belongs. In a way, however, the project was also intended to try and assess what such a 'return' might mean for CFSP/ESDP, and how the two processes would interact and dovetail.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Cyprus

204. Turkey and the European Union at a Crossroads: America's Role

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
According to the Financial Times, France and Germany will propose to the December 12-13 European Union (EU) summit that negotiations regarding Turkey's accession to the EU begin in July 2005, providing Ankara achieves further progress in democratic consolidation and human rights. If indeed Turkey is offered a conditional date for EU accession at the Copenhagen summit, this would represent a significant, yet incomplete, step. Turkey needs a direct date from the EU to begin negotiations for joining the union.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, and Germany

205. The New Cabinet in Turkey: Who is Who?

Author:
Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 28, the newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will present its twenty-five cabinet members to the Turkish Parliament for a vote of confidence. With eleven fewer members than the outgoing cabinet, the new cabinet represents AKP's commitment to smaller government. In addition to six names from the Islamist Welfare Party (RP), which was banned in 1998, the cabinet includes eleven new figures, who rose in politics with AKP. There are also six deputies formerly associated with the centrist Motherland Party (ANAP), one deputy each from center right True Path Party (DYP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP), as well as a female member, Tourism Minister Guldal Aksit. Some analysts view this diversity as proof of AKP's desire to form a government that represents the party's voters, ranging from Islamists to moderate liberals.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

206. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey Has Been Successful As the Leader of the International Force in Afghanistan

Author:
Hilmi Akin Zorlu
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The creation of ISAF was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1386 in December 2001. The United Kingdom served as the first lead nation until Turkey took over command on June 20, 2002; the Turkish mandate was granted by Resolution 1413, which extended ISAF's authorization until December 20, 2002.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

207. Challenges for the Justice and Development Party Government in Turkey

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Turkish parliament will meet tomorrow for its first session since the elections of November 3, in which a party with an Islamist pedigree – the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) – secured a majority, winning 363 of 550 seats (the social-democratic Republican People's Party [CHP] is the only other party in parliament, with 178 seats; independents won the remaining 9 seats). Over the next few days, AKP leader Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with President Necdet Sezer, who has the power to appoint the next prime minister. For the first time since 1954, Turkey has a two-party parliament, in which AKP will rule. Will this be a successful experiment? What are some of the challenges facing this government?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

208. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey Goes to the Polls–A Post-Mortem

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Bulent Ali Riza
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, Turkey went to polls, and a party with an Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – won a clear majority with 34 percent of the vote and 363 of the 550 seats in the parliament. The social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP) was the only other party to win parliamentary representation, garnering 19 percent of the vote and 178 seats (the remaining 9 seats went to independent candidates). All three parties in the outgoing coalition government failed to meet the 10-percent threshold for participating in the legislature, as did the other opposition parties. With 363 seats, AKP is only 5 seats short of the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution. Still, the party has enough ministers of parliament to form the next government on its own, putting an end to fifteen years of coalition governments in Turkey. This could bear positive results: Turkey has performed rather poorly under coalition governments (e.g., during the 1990s), but rather well under majority governments (e.g., during the Turgut Ozal years of the 1980s).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

209. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

210. November Elections in Turkey: Assessing the Ban on Justice and Development Party Leader Tayyip Erdogan

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States considers a possible military campaign in Iraq, Turkey is preoccupied with its upcoming elections. Although a party with roots in Islamism will be a major contender in the November 3 elections, it is unlikely that Turkey's approach to the Iraq issue will change much, regardless of which party wins. That said, continuing political uncertainty at home could preoccupy Turkish leaders, reducing Turkey's contribution to solving the Iraq problem.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East