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12. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
13. Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections
- Author:
- Aurélien Denizeau
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The year 2023, already marked by a deadly double earthquake in the south-east of the country in February, is the year of the centenary of the Republic, but above all an election year for Turkey. The general elections (parliamentary and presidential) will take place on May 14 and are unanimously considered to be crucial for the political future of the country. The electoral campaign is polarized around two major coalitions: the People’s Alliance, led by the presidential AKP and the MHP, which supports the re-election of President Erdoğan; and the Nation Alliance, formed by the main Kemalist party CHP with five other parties, and supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a presidential candidate. Two other coalitions are also present and could tip the election one way or the other: the Labor and Freedom Alliance, centered around the progressive and pro-Kurdish HDP, and the Ancestral Alliance, which supports the nationalist Sinan Oğan. While this political configuration may seem familiar to European observers – where cross-party coalitions are common, especially in parliamentary regimes – there are indications, such as the tensions between the İYİ Party and its partners in the Nation Alliance over support for Kılıçdaroğlu, that call into question the nature of these coalitions: are they motivated by ideological proximity, or are they merely tactical tools for gaining power? In particular, these coalitions seem to derive from the nature of the Turkish political regime and its evolution over the last decade, with an ultra-presidentialization of the system under the successive presidential terms of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which has led all political actors to position themselves in relation to his personal power. As socio-economic conditions weaken the AKP’s electoral base, the prospects for this election seem more open than ever.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Coalition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
14. Balancing Security and Innovation: Opposition's View on Turkey's Digital Policies
- Author:
- Mesut Özcan and Ussal Şahbaz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on May 14, 2023, are expected to be closely contested. Polls suggest that the ruling AK Party-led People’s Alliance will lose its majority in parliament, resulting in a hung lower house. This would create an opportunity for multiparty dialogue and temporary alliances on specific policy issues, leading to legislation that is the result of multiparty bargaining rather than the agenda of a dominant party. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to understand the Turkish opposition’s views on a variety of policy issues, with digital policies being a particularly underexplored one. At the intersection of political, economic, and technological issues, digital policies are regulations that have to adapt to a rapidly changing landscape of technological advances on a global scale. Turkey, as a regional power and an upper-middle-income economy, has attempted to take advantage of technological innovations to further promote economic growth and national security purposes. However, the AK Party government's efforts have been met with skepticism from opposition groups as they have fallen short of protecting individual rights and freedoms online. The study is organized into four sections, with an analysis of the political situation on the eve of the upcoming elections, a description of the technological ecosystem in Turkey, an analysis of the evolution of digital policies in Turkey under the AK Party’s successive governments, and a detailed overview of the main opposition parties' digital policy positions. This study thus provides insight into the future of digital policies in Turkey and the potential impact of the upcoming elections on this pivotal issue.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Digital Economy, Internet, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
15. Turkey is not the US and Kılıçdaroğlu is not Obama
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak focuses on the recent May 2023 elections. He highlights the importance of sectarian identity as one factor underlying President Erdoğan's victory, which came despite the deteriorating economy, the earthquake disaster, and strong polling for his opponent.
- Topic:
- Sectarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Earthquake, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
16. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts
- Author:
- Ofra Bengio
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Middle East
17. Erdoğan’s Reelection Illustrates the Bleak Future of Turkish Democracy
- Author:
- Michael Werz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- Turkey saw unprecedented political mobilization, partly because going to the ballot box offered one of the last opportunities to make one’s voice heard. But little changed.
- Topic:
- National Security, Elections, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. Erdoğan’s Syria Policy: Continuation of the Status Quo?
- Author:
- Sinem Adar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Erdoğan’s victory was driven by rhetoric stoking further conflict with Kurdish actors in Turkey and Syria. He is unlikely to back down from this position in the future. Turkey will seek to balance its “forever war” with the PKK against desires to repatriate Syrian refugees in potential negotiations with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Refugees, Syrian War, Kurds, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
19. Turkey after the elections, what direction it will take
- Author:
- Vít Marek
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- On Wednesday, June 7, a debate took place as part of the Café Evropa cycle, on the topic: "Turkey after the elections, which direction will it go?". The invitation to the debate was accepted by Lucia Najšlová, political scientist and author of the book Turkey and the EU: The Politics of Belonging, as well as by Deník N journalist Dominika Píhová and Břetislav Tureček, head of the Center for Middle East Studies at the Metropolitan University in Prague. The debate was moderated by Žiga Faktor, the head of the Brussels office of the EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
20. “Scent of a woman”: Women as a crucial factor in the upcoming Turkish elections
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The female vote is one of the decisive factors in the 14 May elections. The government coalition now includes parties with highly problematic views on women and women’s rights. Housewives comprise the AKP’s female stronghold, but the tide is changing. Women in Turkey are unhappy, anxious and pessimistic.
- Topic:
- Elections, Women, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East