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21. Relations Between Russia and Türkiye in The Context of The Syrian Conflict: From Edge of the War to Strategic Cooperation

Author:
Cenk Özatıcı and Polat Üründül
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article analyses the changing dynamics in Turkish-Russian relations during the Syrian civil war. The Syrian civil war has had a significant impact on relations between Türkiye and Russia. Initially, at odds over Türkiye’s support for Syrian opposition forces and Russia’s support for the Assad regime, tensions peaked when the Turks shot down a Russian warplane. This paper argues that Türkiye’s security concerns, including threats from the Syrian regime and the PYD and Russia’s desire to remove obstacles to its national interests in Syria, have led to strategic cooperation between the two countries. Russia’s pragmatic approach to Türkiye’s security needs and its military dominance in Syria encouraged Türkiye to cooperate with the Russians. This cooperation, evident in projects such as the Astana process and arms deals, was also seen as an opportunity by Russia to weaken NATO and strengthen the Assad regime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Strategic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

22. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine

Author:
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America

23. Can Turkish Jews Act as a Bridge in Israeli-Turkish Economic Relations?

Author:
Onur Yılmaz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on Israeli-Turkish economic relations. While highlighting the emerging challenges that may diminish Turkish Jews' traditional role, Onur Yilmaz of Izmir's Ege University analyzed the prospects of the economic relations by shedding a light on their contributions to the prosperity of both nations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Economy, and Jewish community
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

24. Deciphering Erdoğan's Regional Paradigm Shifts

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Professor Ofra Bengio analyses the trajectory of Turkish foreign and domestic policies by examining three paradigms in Erdogan's strategy since the early 2000s. In addition, we offer our sincere condolences to the victims of the earthquake last week.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, Arab Spring, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Industry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

25. Outlining EU-Turkey relations: The impacts of the Ukraine war and Turkey’s crucial elections

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Turkey-EU relations are affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine and its consequences for the EU’s place in the world. Another major factor is Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections held in May, which are defining the prospects for the country’s democratic future and its foreign policy. The second round of the presidential election took place on 28 May. The re-election of President Erdoğan indicates that the unilateral foreign policy and strained relationship with the West is likely to continue, although there is a chance of a short-term burst of cooperation due to Turkey’s economic troubles. There are increasingly divergent views about Turkey in the West, and the EU’s future relationship with Turkey needs to accommodate these different conceptualizations of the country as a state actor. The EU needs to be flexible in the coming months and to find ways to engage with Turkey in a more fruitful manner, irrespective of the election results.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

26. Water and Climate Change Will Shape Iraq-Turkey Relations

Author:
Mohammed A. Salih
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Water and climate change will be at the center of Iraq-Turkish relations for years to come. There is a mismatch of priorities on the Turkish and Iraqi sides, with security constituting the most urgent element for Turkey and water/environment for Iraq. Iraq lacks effective pressure cards against Turkey, while Ankara can successfully weaponize water against Iraq, particularly in the short and medium run. A holistic approach that integrates the questions of trade, energy, security, and water can best help assuage Iraq’s water needs in dealing with Turkey.
Topic:
Climate Change, Bilateral Relations, and Water
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

27. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya

Author:
Constantine Capsaskis
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa

28. NATO's Strategic Concept: Implications for Greece and Türkiye

Author:
Nikolaos Lampas
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This article analyses the impact of North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) new strategic concept on its involvement in the Eastern Mediterranean and its implications for Greek-Turkish relations. We analyse the application of NATO’s new strategic concept in the Eastern Mediterranean by focusing on the case study of Greek-Turkish tensions and NATO’s role in de-escalation efforts. The case study of Greek-Turkish relations is vital for two reasons. Firstly, because of NATO’s renewed interest in the Eastern Mediterranean region, and secondly, because the complicated relationship between the two countries has the potential to disrupt NATO’s unity. The findings of this article suggest that while NATO’s intention is to adapt to evolving security challenges, its new strategic concept has done little to de-escalate the tensions between Greece and Türkiye. Despite the Alliance’s commitment to collective defence and conflict resolution, the longstanding disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean have persisted, often with increased intensity. In conclusion, NATO’s new strategic concept acknowledges the burgeoning complexities in the Eastern Mediterranean, yet falls markedly short of introducing effective measures to de-escalate the longstanding tensions between Greece and Türkiye. While the document perceptively addresses the need for heightened engagement in the Eastern Mediterranean and highlights the myriad security challenges, including territorial disputes, migration issues, and the competition for energy resources, it lacks a clear actionable framework for mitigating the discord between these two member states.
Topic:
NATO, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Eastern Mediterranean

29. Türkiye, Russia, and their Rules-Based Competition

Author:
Daria Isachenko
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
At its summit in Madrid in June 2022, NATO adopted a new Strategic Concept, identifying Russia as “the greatest and most immediate threat to the security of the Allies and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.” All NATO member states agreed to this, including Türkiye. Yet Ankara is still keen to maintain dialogue with Moscow, while at the same time continuing to obstruct NATO’s northern expansion—despite the West’s need to demonstrate a consolidated front against Russia. This has earned Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the title of “double agent” or even “Trojan horse” in the Western media. Even before the outbreak of Russia’s war in Ukraine on 24 February 2022, Erdogan’s close relationship with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin were a source of irritation for the West. The most notable result of their friendship is Erdogan’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in 2017, which raised doubts in the West about Ankara’s loyalty to NATO and led to Türkiye’s exclusion from the co-production of F-35 fighter jets with Ankara’s Western allies. Neither the Kremlin nor the Western capitals concealed their respective (and opposed) preferences for the presidential candidates in Türkiye’s elections in May 2023. Erdogan is a foreign leader whom Putin praises most. Working with Erdogan, as Putin once mentioned during a Valdai Discussion Club meeting in October 2020, is “not only pleasant but also safe.” During the inauguration of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, built by Rosatom, on 27 April 2023, Putin highlighted the personal engagement of Erdogan that made the realization of this “flagship project” between Russia and Türkiye possible. Putin’s appreciation of the Turkish president is not limited to words, as the Erdogan government expects the p o s t p o n e m e n t of gas payments to Gazprom— amounting to $20 billion—to 2024 and a 25 percent discount on the gas price. The West’s hope, on the other hand, was that with opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu coming to power in Ankara, the era of personal chemistry between Erdogan and Putin would come to its end and that Türkiye would revert to being a disciplined NATO member state, as it was during the Cold War and its immediate aftermath. After all, the widespread perception of Russian-Turkish relations is that this partnership is underpinned by the personal relations between their respective presidents as well as their anti-Westernism.
Topic:
NATO, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Turkey

30. Armenia-Türkiye Relations: Attempts at Normalization

Author:
Könül Şahin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The Armenian and Turkish people have lived together for centuries in the same geography under various regime types and within various political forms. As countries, Armenia and Türkiye initially established diplomatic relations during the brief period of the first Armenian republic, which corresponded to the nascent years of the Republic of Türkiye. The absorption of Armenia into the Soviet Union put an end to this initial phase. It was only after Armenia regained its independence, in the context of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that conditions enabling the renewal of state-to-state ties were again established. This essay provides an account of this complicated journey, which has not yet reached its destination. It is intended to serve as an analytic contribution to ongoing efforts by Ankara and Yerevan to normalize bilateral relations within the framework of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, with which it remains politically preconditioned. This essay also carries an oftentimes implicit subtext—no less important in a certain sense—namely, the role played by Azerbaijan in general and Heydar Aliyev in particular (2023 marks the centenary of his birth and the vigenary of his death) in influencing the development of the Armenia-Türkiye relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and South Caucasus