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12. The Seesaw Relationship between Turkey and Israel
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Selin Nasi discusses how Erdogan has limited Turkey's relevance to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by openly supporting Hamas in recent months.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
13. Comparing Israeli-Turkish Relations: The 1990s versus post-October 7
- Author:
- Jonathan Ghariani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Jonathan Ghariani analyzes the changes in Turkey's approach to Israel since October 7, 2023 in contrast to the pre-Erdogan era led by Necmettin Erbakan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
14. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues
- Author:
- Toni Alaranta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
15. Türkiye-EU Relations and the European Political Community in the Aftermath of Russian Invasion: Is the Transactional Turn Here to Stay?
- Author:
- Başak Alpan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- Bilateral relations between Türkiye and the European Union (EU) acquired an EU conditionality dimension with the 1999 Helsinki decision, granting the country the EU candidacy status. Nevertheless, especially since the March 2016 EU-Turkey Statement, also known as Türkiye-EU Refugee Deal, what we see is a thorough shift in Türkiye-EU relations from a conditionality perspective to transactionalism, coupled with several domestic and international developments. In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the significance of geopolitics and the heightened relevance of realpolitik also contributed to a renewed focus on strategic and pragmatic issues, relegating normative concerns to the background within Türkiye-EU relations. All in all, the shift from a conditionality perspective to a security-based logic within the framework of Türkiye-EU relations was mainly determined and characterised by the so-called “transactional turn”. Within this very transactionalist paradigm, both the EU and Türkiye want to pursue their short-term interests at the expense of a long-term principled engagement for some time. The launch of the European Political Community (EPC) on 6 October 2022 with 44 European heads of state and government (including all 27 EU member states as well as Türkiye) also contributed to this transactional tide, which aimed to “emphasise European geopolitical cooperation in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; to remedy enlargement fatigue by providing an additional forum for exchange between EU candidates and member states; as well as create a forum for exchange with non-EU security actors” (Tcherneva, 2023). The EPC’s rather flexible structure and focus on mini-lateralism, which could provide greater freedom for leaders to focus on their immediate concerns, also raises eyebrows about whether the EPC would be attentive enough (and even have the mandate) to safeguard human rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Jurkovic, 2023). In light of these debates, the aims of this paper are twofold. First, it aims to explore how recent transactional initiatives between Türkiye and the EU in general and the EPC initiative in particular have unfolded and have been perceived by the Turkish diplomats and foreign policy experts. This endeavour to understand the Turkish perceptions of Türkiye-EU relations mainly focusing on recent transactionalism between the parties will be explored with a particular focus on three thematic layers, namely the foreign policy, migration and energy through semi-structured interviews with Turkish diplomats and foreign policy experts. The main rationale behind picking up these thematic layers is to identify, analyse and describe better the complex nature of Türkiye-EU relations with a particular focus on these policy fields (namely foreign policy, migration and energy), which recently witnessed the highest intensity of interactions between two parties. Second, the paper discusses the significance of the EPC within this very transactional turn and aims to understand whether the EPC is another repercussion of the increasing transactionalism. The final aim of the paper will be to understand whether the EU foreign policy, on the one hand, and the bilateral Türkiye-EU relations, on the other, would evolve in a completely transactional and security-based manner leaving no room for normativity amidst the current global uncertainties and challenges, as well as bringing together policy recommendations for the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
16. The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad. On January 23, Turkey’s parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, opening the path for Stockholm’s eventual membership in the alliance. The Biden administration attaches great importance to NATO expansion amid Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and while the Swedish membership bid must still await a vote by Hungary’s parliament, Turkey’s decision is a major step forward. Previously, Ankara had held off greenlighting Stockholm’s application for nearly two years after it was submitted in May 2022, and the issue became symbolic of deeper dysfunction in U.S.-Turkish ties. This week’s parliamentary vote promises to end that epoch, giving both Washington and Ankara an opportunity to chart a new course even as other differences persist.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, Sweden, and United States of America
17. Turkey’s Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia: An Insight into Challenges from 2012-2023
- Author:
- Betselot Adisu Ayal, Nani Debele Dubale, and Esayas Bamlack Bishaw
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- The first decade of the 21st century marks a new phase in relations between Ethiopia and Turkey. During this period, relations between the two countries transformed into an unprecedented stage. The aim of this study is to examine the challenges of Ethio-Turkish economic relations from 2012 to 2023, with particular reference to trade and FDI. To attain its objectives, the study employed a qualitative research approach. Essentially, primary data were collected through key informant interviews, observation, and document reviews. Despite the growth in trade and foreign direct investment between the two countries, various challenges hinder the smooth operation of these economic ties. The main results of this study show that issues like changing exchange rates, lacking access to the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), corruption, inefficient government, high tariffs, infrastructure issues, companies that can't pay their debts, customs procedures, fluctuating exchange rates, and a lack of data were major problems for trade and investment between Ethiopia and Turkey. The findings of the study suggest that there are certain problems that need policy measures for further industrial development through attracting foreign direct investment.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, and Ethiopia
18. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations Improving
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The fifth round of negotiations between Türkiye and Armenia, held on 30 July, offers hope for an acceleration of the normalisation of their relations, including the opening of borders between the countries. However, the success of the negotiations depends on the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan. Such an agreement would unblock transport routes in the South Caucasus region, as well as increase the presence of the EU and Poland in the region.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Borders, Negotiation, Transportation, Normalization, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Poland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
19. Egyptian-Turkish Relations on a Roller Coaster: Implications for the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Electra Nisidou
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper delves into the volatile relationship between Egypt and Turkey, examining its profound implications for the Eastern Mediterranean. Since 2020, Egyptian-Turkish relations have moved cautiously towards rapprochement following a period of intense tension. Central to this relationship is the Libyan conflict, in which both states hold substantial stakes. This study explores the current political forces driving this tentative reconciliation, as well as the ramifications of these developments for the Eastern Mediterranean. The Libyan civil war emerged as a proxy conflict between Egypt and Turkey; however, both states have since aligned their positions on the Gaza crisis, reflecting a major shift in their diplomatic approach. The significance of Libya’s oil reserves for both states cannot be overstated, as they have prompted a renewed sense of cooperation after a decade of rivalry. Despite their significant ideological differences, Egypt and Turkey have ultimately recognized the necessity of strengthening their ties across nearly all areas, including trade and military cooperation. After a decade of intense conflict shaped by competing interests and military interventions in Libya, Egypt and Turkey are now contemplating a rapprochement with a view to addressing common security and economic interests. If it signals Turkey’s wish to engage with all the countries in the region based on international norms, a rapprochement between Egypt and Turkey could prove to be a critical factor for the achievement of stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. An opportunity is emerging for Greece to promote regional cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Topic:
- Oil, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Egypt, and Eastern Mediterranean
20. The Evolution of Public Opinion in Greece and Turkey (2021-2023): Dynamics and Shifts in Comparative Perspective
- Author:
- Evren Balta and Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- ELIAMEP joined forces with IPC with the support of DiaNEOsis to organize the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series. Five rounds of surveys were conducted concurrently in both countries, exploring cooperation, conflict, nationalism, perceptions, multilateral institutions, and societal linkages. A strong preference was recorded for peaceful means of conflict resolution, with variations in emphasis on bilateral talks and multilateralism. The presence of Turkey in the Greek public sphere is much stronger than the presence of Greece in the Turkish public sphere. Greek views of Turkey are more coherent compared to Turkish views of Greece. Religiosity is a significant indicator of attitudes towards the other side. Both public opinions are sceptic regarding the role of international actors, as there is concern about their bias in favour of the other side. This study is based on the results of the first joint Greek-Turkish public opinion survey series organized by ELIAMEP and IPC and supported by DiaNEOsis. Through its five waves, this survey has identified similarities, differences and dynamics in the views Greeks and Turks have of each other and of Greek-Turkish bilateral disputes; their views about their own country’s position in the world, its relations with the European Union, the United States and Russia; as well as their perceptions of domestic institutions and the future both of their country and of themselves. The study highlights the fact that, despite the escalation in Greek-Turkish relations since 2018, most Greek and Turkish respondents displayed a preference for non-violent means of conflict resolution, even though they disagreed about both the root causes of the bilateral disputes and the appropriate solutions.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Greece