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11. Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, and Export Nexus in Turkey: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Model and Granger Causality Approach

Author:
Bayram Gungor
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The relationship among the FDI, GDP and Export has gained vast attention among the researchers and policy-makers. There are many studies on the interaction of these variables using various econometric approaches in the literature. However, it has seen that the findings have been different from country by country. Therefore, this study's main problematic is to estimate the coefficients that show the interaction among the FDI, GDP and Export covering 1980-2019 in Turkey. The ARDL Bounds Model and Granger Causality approach were selected to measure the coefficients statistically. Three models were executed to calculate the short-run and long-run coefficients. While the Model 1 and Model 3 were found statistically significant to explain the dependent variables, the Model 2 was found statistically insignificant. Because of this, the Model 2 was excluded from the study. The short- run coefficients were also found statistically significant to explain the dependent variables of the Model 1 and Model 3. While GDP affects the FDI positively in Model 1, GDP affects the Export negatively in Model 2. The ECT was found statistically significant at 0.01. The speeds of adjustment of the Model 1 and Model 3 were calculated as approximately 93% and 16% levels, respectively. Unlike the ARDL Bounds Model, the Granger Causality test was implemented to measure the variables' causal relationship. It was seen that there is only a unidirectional Granger causal relationship running from GDP to FDI in the Model 1 and from GDP to Export in the Model 2.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, GDP, and Exports
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

12. Turkish AK Parti’s Posture towards the 2003 War in Iraq The Impact of Religion amid Security Concerns

Author:
Alberto Gasparetto
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This paper focuses on Turkey’s foreign policymakers’ attitudes in the context of the 2003 US decision to wage war against Iraq. The main goal is to assess and downplay the impact of religion in relation to security-related concerns. Drawing on official speeches, interviews, declarations by key figures in the foreign policy process, the paper argues that religion is nothing more than an intervening factor in the case of Turkey’s approach to the 2003 war in Iraq. Therefore, notwithstanding the role of Islamist elites in the foreign policy decision-making of Turkey, Turkey’s foreign affairs were rather inspired by realist behaviour, driven by pragmatic considerations, aimed at pursuing rationalist goals.
Topic:
Security, Religion, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

13. Rethinking Key Drivers of Turkey’s Immigration Policies in the Wake of the 2016 Turkey -European Union Immigration Deal

Author:
Israel Nyaburi Nyadera and Billy Agwanda
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Turkey’s immigration policies have experienced several changes over the last century. The 2016 agreement between Turkey and the European Union has not only had a significant impact on how Turkey and the European Union deal with asylum seekers, but also revived the debate on the EU’s externalisation of immigration issues. This study aims to examine the impact of the agreement on Turkey’s immigration policymaking process. It identifies that while the European Union may seek to externalise immigration by entering into agreements with third-party states, Turkey’s immigration policies are largely influenced by a complex balance of domestic, regional, and political interest.
Topic:
Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Immigration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

14. Intellectual Capital in Islamic Banking Sector: Evidence from Turkey

Author:
Hakan Uslu
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The Islamic banking sector has experienced a rapid development both in Muslim and non-Muslim geographies. In this study, using a panel dataset spanning the time period 2005-2018 and several econometric estimations, how intellectual capital affects the financial performance of the participation banks, as Islamic banks are called in Turkey is analysed. The Value-Added Intellectual Coefficient model (VAIC), a well-known methodology, is utilised as a measure for intellectual capital performances and return on assets (ROA) and return on shareholders’ equity (ROE), in general, financial performances of the banks. The results of the analyses provide evidence for a positive and statistically significant impact of intellectual capital on financial performances of Islamic banks operating in Turkey. The results also suggest that employed capital efficiency and structural capital efficiency in the operations of Islamic banks are the two crucial factors for their profitability, while human capital efficiency has no statistical relationship with their financial performances. The current study contributes to the relevant literature since there is no study on Islamic banks of Turkey in the aspect of intellectual capital and helps Islamic bankers, such as executives, investors and shareholders, or policymakers in understanding and determining their positions regarding intellectual capital.
Topic:
Banks, Financial Institutions, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

15. Not Our War: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s Approaches towards the PKK

Author:
I. Aytac Kadioglu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Terrorist violence led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is one of the major issues of Turkey since the 1980s. This violence is based upon Kurdish ethnic identity aimed towards establishing an independent Kurdish state in Turkey’s southeast, northern Iraq, northern Syria and north-western Iran. Despite this aim, the terrorist campaign of the PKK predominantly targets security forces and civilians in Turkey. However, the existence of a terrorist group such a long time raises a question of the impact of external support on the formation and maintenance of the PKK. While Turkey has criticised constantly its southern neighbours on the PKK’s activities and tactics, the regional approaches have been largely neglected in the existing scholarly literature. This article aims to close this gap by focusing on the role played by Iraq, Iran and Syria in the PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counter-terrorism policies. The article argues that the major reasons for the unsuccessful result of Turkey’s effort to destroy the PKK were the approaches of ignorance of the PKK activities and the use of the group as a trump card by the three neighbours and insufficient policies to keep under control the regional dimension of the conflict. The article critically analyses historical relationships between these three states and Turkey to explore how the regional dimension has affected the resolution of this conflict.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Ethnicity, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Kurdistan

16. Formation of Kurdish Nationalist Movement in Turkey: From Social Movement Theories Perspective

Author:
Rahman Dag
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Current politics in Turkey proves that the roots of the Kurdish question have to be taken under strict examination in order to diagnose the problem so that a permanent solution might be found. With this in mind, this paper tries to explain the emergence of the pro-Kurdish nationalist movement, the PKK, via social movement theories. What makes this paper significant is that it examines the process of emergence in three phases via three different social movement theories. For Turkey’s single party era (1923-1950), relative deprivation theory is applied. In the second phase, political opportunity theory is matched with the onset of the multi-party system under the rule of the Democrat Party (1950-1960). Finally resource mobilization theory is applied to the time period between 1960 and 1980. In general, the theoretical approaches chosen are selected in accordance with certain socio-political realities of Turkey. This helps to explain how an ethnic minority ended up with a socially – but not legally – representative organization when they are relatively deprived and obstructed politically. If not all, a certain amount of mobilization of the Kurdish people could result in a social movement, be it is legal or illegal.
Topic:
Nationalism, Social Movement, Minorities, and Community
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

17. Continuity or Change in Turkish Foreign Policy? Analyzing the Policy Fluctuations during the Justice and Development Party Era

Author:
Murat Ulgul
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
For decades, change in Turkish foreign policy has remained as “a neglected phenomenon” in the literature while continuity is explained with two main pillars: Westernization and preference for the status quo. The topic started gaining popularity at the end of 2000s when some conflicts of interest emerged between Turkey and its traditional partners. Scholars mainly explained this change as the result of the new Turkish leadership under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). While the debate in this period provided extensive literature on the subject, the arguments created could not explain the policy fluctuations during the AKP era. In this article, the change in AKP foreign policy is examined during three time periods that show different characteristics in terms of domestic and international opportunities/constraints. It is argued that while Westernization still remains an important pillar in Turkish foreign policy, the main change seems to be in Turkey’s traditional preference for the status quo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Arab Spring, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

18. Complaint Calls as a Proxy for Perceived Quality: The Turkish Dishwasher Demand Estimation

Author:
Çağlar Yurtseven
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
The paper estimates dishwasher demand and supply in Turkey. The constructed Stackelberg type oligopolistic competition, with its strong testable implications is demonstrated to be consistent with a stable market composed of a leader firm and followers. The paper has an important contribution to demand estimation literature as well. The complaint calls rate for a product is offered and shown to be a valid proxy to help the problem of omitted variable bias due to the unobserved characteristics as perceived quality or after sale service quality. Elasticities calculated for each demand determinant can help durable good firms in emerging countries to use their investment and marketing resources more efficiently.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Demand, Supply, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

19. The Role of Contesting Ideologies: Civil-Military Relations in Turkey

Author:
Rahman Dag
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Civil-military relationship is generally examined through the use of an institutional approach or theories (concordance) that emphasise the salience of power struggles and social cohesion. These contributions are important but often exclude the role of contesting ideologies. To address this gap, this paper takes an ideological approach to address civil-military relations in Turkey. The analyses commence with the military reforms of the Ottoman Empire in the late 19th century and the Republican period. The paper argues that modernization projects of the Empire paved the way for military superiority which turned into being saviour and founders of the Republic. It then moves to consider the ideological parameters that coloured the military establishment, arguing that the target of modernization was itself systemized and internalized into Kemalist ideology and the duty to preserve this remains inculcated in the contemporary military establishment.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Coup, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

20. Changing Dynamics of Turkish Regional Policy: Resistance for Multilevel Governance?

Author:
Ali Onur Ozcelik
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This article is concerned with the relationship between Europeanization and regionalization processes in Turkey in the post-Helsinki Era of 1999. By considering European regional policy and its related pre-accession financial incentives as the most useful and appropriate empirical lenses, it offers an analysis of the causes and mechanisms encouraging regionalization process in Turkey during the EU accession process. Through the analysis of official documents and of in-depth interviews with relevant actors in the EU and Turkey, findings suggest that while some of the changes are considered as direct effects of Europeanization, such as the creation of territorial system according to NUTS classification, other developments are invoked by indirect mechanisms of Europeanization, such as the creation of regional development agencies (RDAs) and their role in regional planning and allocation of national funds. More importantly, the findings illustrate that although the EU’s credibility has declined after 2005 and its regional policy, in the sense of the implementation of regional policies and management of structural funds, have shifted towards the more centralized model in the post-Lisbon era (for the 2007-2013 structural fund programme), developments in these areas in Turkey have gone to opposite directions, more accurately, through the more regionalized model. These changes not only reflect the pre-Lisbon practices of EU regional policy and structural funds underlining a spill-over effect resulting from the dissemination of EU practices and policies, but also contain the spices of Turkish administrative tradition.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Governance, European Union, Europeanization, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia