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1. Exploring the Impact of Behavioural Factors and Personality Traits on Private Pension System Participation: A Machine Learning Approach

Author:
Can Verberi and Muhittin Kaplan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study aims to investigate the effects of personality traits, in addition to basic financial literacy, private pension literacy and behavioural factors on Private Pension System (PPS) participation using machine learning algorithms. The PPS participation model was trained using both random forest and LightGBM algorithms, and the contributions of model inputs in the prediction of pension participation were interpreted using the Tree SHAP algorithms with swarmplots. The data employed in the empirical analysis is survey data collected from the Şırnak province of Türkiye with a sample size of 449. The findings of the study shows that: (i) PPS participation is more likely for females and middle-aged people; (ii) High basic financial literacy has a negative impact on PPS participation; (iii) Extraversion is the key personality trait affecting PPS participation; (iv) Advanced pension literacy has more impact on participation than simple pension literacy: (v) Present-fatalistic tendency is key behavioural factor and it negatively affects PPS; (vi) Present-hedonistic, conscientiousness, future-time orientation, and locus of control tendencies increase PPS participation. Furthermore, the distribution of colours in LightGBM has a greater degree of uniformity in both directions compared with the random forest algorithm. Finally, to increase PPS participation, the results of the study suggest the implementation of the following policy measures: Tailored pension literacy programmes can help to increase pension participation rates. Incentives should be created to prevent narrow-minded behaviour and establish a sense of protection and control around PPS, targeting middle-aged individuals and women.
Topic:
Economics, Behavior, Pension, Machine Learning, and Personality
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

2. Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Kurtuluş Merdan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3. Public Policies on the Socioeconomic Effects of Migration

Author:
Ezgim Yavuz and Nazan Susam
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
To develop a public policy, it is important to understand the experiences of forced migrants. This study reveals the effects of forced migration on public finances in countries hosting displaced people. In this context, public policy support for access to basic humanitarian needs such as education and health, which are semi-public goods, will be evaluated through a quantitative analysis. Interviews with refugees within the scope of this research draw a picture of the current situation. Thus, evaluating the effectiveness and shortcomings of existing policies and determining the policy support needed are among the unique values of this research. Since migration is a dynamic process, it is also aimed to provide a basis for future studies in this field and to reveal the current situation.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Health, Migration, Refugees, Public Policy, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Global Focus

4. Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks

Author:
Hikmet Akyol and Selim Başar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This research examines the macroeconomic and institutional sources of individual, systemic, and systematic risks in the Turkish banking sector. The period between 2008:Q3 and 2019:Q3 of the nine deposit banks selected for this purpose were estimated using panel data analysis estimators. The results indicate that selected macroeconomic and institutional variables affect banking risks. These findings are important for revealing the institutional and macroeconomic sources of risks in the Turkish banking sector. Therefore, the results contain significant propositions for researchers, market participants, and politicians. Market participants and researchers can anticipate defaults and financial instability using selected macroeconomic and institutional variables. The estimation results reveal Turkish banks’ institutional soundness and financial performance strength. In addition, the extent to which banks are effective intermediaries in the sector was analysed. This research documented a strong link between global market indicators and banking risks.
Topic:
Finance, Macroeconomics, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

5. Analysis of Istanbul Stock Market Returns Volatility with ARCH and GARCH Models

Author:
İpek M. Yurttagüler
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
In today’s world where globalization is intensely experienced, differences in risk perception, developments in capital markets, and the negativities faced in the markets due to uncertainty are very important when researching the structures of the stock markets, and therefore determining current volatilities. One of the biggest problems encountered is the inability to price stocks effectively. Therefore, estimating and modeling volatility becomes crucial. The diversity of the portfolio, created by international investors in the financial markets and the sustainability of their investment decisions, are closely related to the volatility variable. However, the fact that financial markets are more fragile in developing countries increases the importance of volatility. There are many different methods in the literature when estimating volatility. Due to the inadequacy of traditional time series models in estimating volatility, conditional heteroskedasticity models are used with ARCH and GARCH class models being frequently used. In this study, the series of daily opening values of the ISE100 Index covering from 02.01.2003 to 30.09.2022 was estimated using ARCH/GARCH models for volatility with the aim to determine which model has the higher explanatory power. According to the findings, the GARCH(1,1) model gave more meaningful results in explaining the ISE100 return volatility.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Stock Markets, and Volatility
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

6. Decoding Inflation: Role of Institutional Quality in Türkiye Using Advanced Econometric Techniques

Author:
Yıldırım Beyazıt Çiçen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Persistent inflation remains a significant economic challenge in Türkiye. The causes of high inflation have been examined through various factors, including supply and demand, as well as monetary and fiscal policies. However, few studies have included institutional factors in their analyses. The objective of this study is to determine whether institutional quality affects inflation in Türkiye. A novel and robust econometric analysis method is employed in this study. Between 2005 and 2019, the inflation rate, the International Country Risk Guide’s (ICRG) Political Risk Rating index, which measures the quality of institutional structure, and the changes in currency exchange rate basket variables in Türkiye were examined using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test and the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the analysis indicate that inflation rate is co-integrated with institutional quality. The deterioration of institutional quality in Türkiye between 2005 and 2019 has been associated with an increase in inflation. While the implicit inflation targeting period in the inflation targeting regime implemented in Türkiye after 2002 was relatively successful, the explicit inflation targeting period failed to reduce inflation. The primary reason for the inability to achieve the specified inflation targets during these periods is the deterioration in the quality of institutions. It is also important to note that central bank independence is not immune to political influence and is one of the most important factors affecting inflation targeting.
Topic:
Institutions, Inflation, Central Bank, and Econometrics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

7. Populism and Income Inequality: Is Income Inequality in Türkiye a Political Choice?

Author:
Dila Asfuroğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The argument that national inequalities are political and thereby driven by political decisions implies that income distribution is not merely an economic phenomenon but also a political one. Hence, this study explores the impact of populist governance on income inequality in Türkiye. In doing so, this study addresses whether income inequality in Türkiye is a political choice, drawing on economic, social, and political data over the years 2008- 2022. According to the results of the quantitative analysis, the share of income for the working class has fallen, the income gap between the lowest and highest deciles of the working class has narrowed, and the potential for fiscal interventions to reduce income inequality is not realised. In return, the income inequality that existed in 2008 has persisted at the same magnitude over the years. In other words, even if income inequality is not an explicit political choice, the populist governance in Türkiye between 2008 and 2022 has chosen not to contribute to the solution to this prevailing inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Income Inequality, and Populism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

8. Did the February 6-7 Türkiye Earthquake Trigger a Housing Market Bubble? Empirical Insights from Right-tailed Unit-root Tests

Author:
Gökhan Kartal
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study primarily aims to assess whether the destructive earthquakes of February 6-7, 2023 triggered a potential nationwide housing market bubble. Spanning the period from January 2010 to September 2024, the analysis employs Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods to identify bubble formations. The findings reveal significant bubble periods, including January to August 2015, November 2015 to November 2016, May 2018 to January 2019, May to June 2019, and February to December 2023. The latest bubble formation occurred immediately after the earthquake, highlighting a strong link between the disaster and housing market dynamics. While the earthquake’s impact—through abrupt housing stock loss, large-scale displacement, and intensified demand for secure housing—was undeniably a crucial trigger for this bubble, other macroeconomic factors, such as inflationary pressures, low interest rates, and the perception of housing as a lucrative investment, also played a reinforcing role. The Türkiye experience enhances the understanding of speculative cycles in seismic regions, demonstrating how non-economic shocks such as earthquakes can rapidly boost demand and strain housing supply, amplifying speculative behaviour. This bubble, which peaked in May 2023 and gradually deflated, completely dissipated by December 2023. This development can be associated with the policies implemented by economic authorities, including interest rate hikes, restrictive credit measures, as well as the normalisation of conditions across the country following the earthquake. This highlights the need for proactive monitoring and intervention by economic authorities through appropriate economic policies and regulations to address supply-demand imbalances and mitigate the risks of future housing bubbles, particularly in response to external shocks. Furthermore, in response to the study’s findings on earthquake-triggered bubbles, policymakers should prioritise initiatives aimed at strengthening building infrastructure and implementing urban transformation strategies.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Speculative Bubbles, and Housing Market
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

9. Determinants of Ecological Footprint in Türkiye: Evidence from the Fourier ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Author:
Mustafa Torun, Cüneyt Kılıç, Ahmet Tayfur Akcan, and Müşerref Arık
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Ecological footprint calculations evaluate sustainability by examining natural resources. The ecological footprint obtained by calculating the number of natural resources per person provides information about the amount of waste produced as well as the natural resources consumed and examines the sustainability of living conditions in the world in this respect. The ecological footprint is one of the frequently encountered topics in the literature in terms of the analysis of environmental impacts. This study examines the factors influencing the Ecological Footprint in Turkey. Using annual data between 1980 and 2018, the relationship of renewable energy consumption, human capital and urbanization variables to the Ecological Footprint is examined. The Fractional Fourier Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test and the Fourier Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test is used in the study. There is a statistically significant relationship between the renewable energy, human capital and urbanization variables and the Ecological Footprint. When the outputs obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the variables affect the ecological footprint. The increased value of these variables can be used to explain why the Ecological Footprint increased. Increasing industrial activities due to globalization and technological developments, increasing vehicle traffic in cities due to population growth, unplanned urbanization and destruction of green areas due to the sheltering needs of the increasing population, inability of recycling facilities to adapt to the increasing population and unplanned waste management, etc. factors can increase the ecological footprint. However, as urbanization increases, if a correct plan is drawn by taking these factors into consideration, the negative correlation between the ecological footprint and urbanization can be explained. Within the determined plan; Wastewater management, protection of green areas, prevention of unplanned urbanization and efficient use of resources are explanatory at this point. The empirical findings have important policy implications. According to these policy implications, to offset the effects on the ecological footprint, educational activities to raise environmental awareness and adopt energy-efficient lifestyles should be given due importance, various incentives and supports should be implemented and a green-based lifestyle.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, Ecology, and Consumption
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

10. Aspects of Employment in Ottoman Waqfs Examples of Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye Waqfs

Author:
Ayşenur Karademir
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This study examines the role of Ottoman imperial waqfs as employment institutions, focusing on the salary register EV.HMH.1178, prepared for the Fatih, Yavuz Selim, and Süleymaniye waqfs in the early 18th century. By analyzing the administrative and financial oversight documented in this register, the article explores the redistributive functions of these waqfs and their contribution to sustaining long-term social and economic stability. Special attention is given to the intervention of the central office (Sadr-ı Âli Nezareti/Grand Vizier’s Office) through an imperial decree and the classification of employee roles by workplace. This research contributes to the literature on waqfs by providing insights into their employment systems and administrative practices.
Topic:
Economics, History, Employment, Ottoman Empire, and Waqf
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East