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101. Thailand's Emergency Decree: No Solution

Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Muslim-majority region of southern Thailand continues to experience a relatively low-level insurgency but a state of emergency imposed on three provinces is no solution to the conflict that has claimed more than 1,000 lives since January 2004. The decree has deepened mistrust of the security forces, worsened public discontent with the government's approach to the insurgency and heightened the risk of human rights abuses. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra should take immediate steps to moderate the decree or risk plunging the area into worse violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

102. River at risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with 'normal' years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavoured to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China's Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river's flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

103. Transmission of Information Across International Equity Markets

Author:
Jon Wongswan
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper provides evidence of transmission of information from the U.S. and Japan to Korean and Thai equity markets during the period from 1995 through 2000. Information is defined as important macroeconomic announcements in the U.S., Japan, Korea, and Thailand. Using high-frequency intraday data, I focus the study on return volatility and trading volume because the implications of new information are much clearer than for returns. I find a large and significant association between emerging-economy equity volatility and trading volume and developed-economy macroeconomic announcements at short-time horizons. This is the first strong evidence of this sort of international information transmission. Previous studies' findings of at most weak evidence may be due to their use of lower frequency data and their focus on developed-economy financial market innovations as the measure of information.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, Korea, and Thailand

104. HIV/AIDS in Asia

Author:
Tim Brown
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The HIV/AIDS epidemic began relatively late in Asia and, so far, HIV infections have not reached the high levels experienced in other parts of the world. Yet behaviors that increase the risk of transmitting HIV are not uncommon in many Asian societies. But there is some good news for countries facing the possibility of an HIV epidemic. Most early HIV transmission in Asia occurs in very specific groups, through needle sharing, anal sex, or sex work. Experience in Thailand and Cambodia has shown that it is possible to lower HIV transmission rates by aggressive prevention programs targeting these groups. Analysis of these programs points to policy recommendations for other Asian governments: obtain accurate information on HIV prevalence and risk behavior; target leaders for sustained commitment; provide the public with full and accurate information; move quickly to provide effective coverage of groups most at risk; sustain and expand prevention activities; convince lawmakers and local authorities to take a pragmatic approach; ensure the active involvement of key communities; and put an end to complacency.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Asia, Cambodia, and Thailand

105. The Argentine Implosion

Author:
Luigi Manzetti
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:
In December 2001, Argentina recorded the world's largest default ever, as it failed to honor payments on its US$132 billion foreign debt. Since then, five presidents have been in power, the Argentine peso has been devalued by 120 percent, and the banking system has virtually collapsed, dragging the economy into a depression. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2002. Argentina's per capita income has become one of the worst in Latin America, and, as a result, more than one-third of its people live under the poverty line. 1 Argentines' confidence in their elected officials has disappeared. By most accounts, the country has literally imploded to a degree that has no precedent in Latin America's contemporary history. This is particularly bewildering, considering that only 10 years ago Argentina was hailed around the world as a model of successful economic reforms, with standards of living that were not only the highest in the region but comparable to those of some southern European countries. How could Argentina go from role model to international outcast so quickly? Some place the blame on external shocks created by the financial crises in Mexico (1995), Indonesia (1997), Thailand (1998), and Russia (1998). Others say the cause of the problem was misguided policy advice from the International Monetary Fund (Stiglitz 2002). Yet, most analyses ascribe much of the trouble to the Convertibility Law's fixed exchange rate policy adopted in 1991.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Indonesia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Thailand

106. Poverty Incidence and Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Southeast Asia

Author:
Peter G. Warr
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent decades, absolute poverty incidence declined in most countries of Southeast Asia, even though in some of these countries inequality increased at the same time. This paper examines the relationship between these outcomes and the rate of economic growth in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors. It develops a time series of available data on the headcount measure of poverty incidence for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines over the period from the 1960s to 1999, in aggregate and in both rural and urban areas. It then uses this pooled data set to analyze the economic determinants of changes in poverty incidence.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

107. Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China

Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held its annual Pacific symposium on “Asian Perspectives on the Challenges of China” at the National Defense University in Washington on March 7 and 8, 2000. This event brought together representatives of the policy community and academe from Australia, the People's Republic of China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the United States. It focused on how perceptions of China influence defense and foreign policies in key nations of the Asia- Pacific region, how the likely course of developments in China might affect the future policies of countries in the region, and how such changes might impact on their security relations with the United States.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, India, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

108. Economic Crisis and Corporate Reform in East Asia

Author:
Meredith Woo-Cumings
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 involved, among other things, a failure of regulation. Some believe this failure is endemic to global capitalism, and others believe it was profoundly local and idiosyncratic, emanating from regulatory flaws in the affected countries, stretching an arc from Thailand and Indonesia to Korea and Japan. There is also a debate about the nature of the regulation that failed. Some argue that the crisis emanated from a surfeit of nettlesome regulations and endemic industrial policy; others claim it happened for want of effective regulations and (even) industrial policy. Across the hypotenuse of these disagreements, however, stretches a universal recognition that regulatory infrastructure and institutions do matter and that they must play a major role in the way we think about economic development. After the miracle years in East Asia, “good governance” has become the Spirit of the Age.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Indonesia, Israel, East Asia, Asia, Korea, and Thailand

109. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China

Author:
C.H. Kwan
Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand