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1. The Development of Hydrocarbons in East Africa: Political and Security Challenges

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
East Africa has the potential to experience a gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom in the coming years due to several projects that have been released. Mozambique has approved two projects totaling more than 15 million tons per year (Mt/yr.) of liquefied gas and a third should be started by the end of 2019. The first ENI Floating Liquefied Natural Gas plant (FLNG) will come onto the market in 2022 and four other onshore liquefaction trains, two of which will produce 6.44 Mt (Anadarko/Total) and two of which will produce 7.6 Mt (ExxonMobil/ENI), will be available around 2025. However, with the recoverable reserves, the companies involved are counting on 50 or even 60 Mt/yr. by 2030. This volume will help this East African country to achieve the world’s fourth-largest LNG export capacity in the medium term after the United States, Qatar and Australia. As for Tanzania, no development should be approved before 2020 in the best-case scenario.
Topic:
Security, Development, Oil, and Gas
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and East Africa

2. Home, Again: Refugee Return and Post-Conflict Violence in Burundi

Author:
Stephanie Schwartz
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Conflict between returning refugees and nonmigrant populations is a pervasive yet frequently overlooked security issue in post-conflict societies. Although scholars have demonstrated how out-migration can regionalize, prolong, and intensify civil war, the security consequences of return migration are undertheorized. An analysis of refugee return to Burundi after the country's 1993–2005 civil war corroborates a new theory of return migration and conflict: return migration creates new identity divisions based on whether and where individuals were displaced during wartime. These cleavages become new sources of conflict in the countries of origin when local institutions, such as land codes, citizenship regimes, or language laws, yield differential outcomes for individuals based on where they lived during the war. Ethnographic evidence gathered in Burundi and Tanzania from 2014 to 2016 shows how the return of refugees created violent rivalries between returnees and nonmigrants. Consequently, when Burundi faced a national-level political crisis in 2015, prior experiences of return shaped both the character and timing of out-migration from Burundi. Illuminating the role of reverse population movements in shaping future conflict extends theories of political violence and demonstrates why breaking the cycle of return and repeat displacement is essential to the prevention of conflict.
Topic:
Civil War, Migration, National Security, and Global Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, Burundi, and East Africa

3. Can Transparency and Accountability Programs Improve Health? Experimental Evidence from Indonesia and Tanzania

Author:
Jean Arkedis, Jessica Creighton, Archon Fung, Stephen Kosack, Dan Levy, and Courtney Tolmie
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We assess the impact of a transparency and accountability program designed to improve maternal and newborn health (MNH) outcomes in Indonesia and Tanzania. Co-designed with local partner organizations to be community-led and non-prescriptive, the program sought to encourage community participation to address local barriers in access to high quality care for pregnant women and infants. We evaluate the impact of this program through randomized controlled trials (RCTs), involving 100 treatment and 100 control communities in each country. We find that on average, this program did not have a statistically significant impact on the use or content of maternal and newborn health services, nor the sense of civic efficacy or civic participation among recent mothers in the communities who were offered it. These findings hold in both countries and in a set of prespecified subgroups. To identify reasons for the lack of impacts, we use a mixed-method approach combining interviews, observations, surveys, focus groups, and ethnographic studies that together provide an in-depth assessment of the complex causal paths linking participation in the program to improvements in MNH outcomes. Although participation in program meetings was substantial and sustained in most communities, and most attempted at least some of what they had planned, only a minority achieved tangible improvements and fewer still saw more than one such success. Our assessment is that the main explanation for the lack of impact is that few communities were able to traverse the complex causal paths from planning actions to accomplishing tangible improvements in their access to quality health care.
Topic:
Health, Health Care Policy, Children, and Randomized Controlled Trials
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Southeast Asia

4. The Rwandan Genocide Revisited

Author:
Robert E. Gribbin
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Twenty-five years ago, in April 1994, the havoc of genocide visited Rwanda. In a three-month-long paroxysm of violence, almost a million souls died. The country was devastated, the remaining population cowed, government non-existent, and the economy in shambles. Twenty-five years ago, in April 1994, the havoc of genocide visited Rwanda. In a three-month-long paroxysm of violence, almost a million souls died. The country was devastated, the remaining population cowed, government non-existent, and the economy in shambles.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Politics, History, Peacekeeping, Refugees, and Memory
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Tanzania, North America, Rwanda, Burundi, Central African Republic, United States of America, and Zaire

5. Managing Expectations About Tanzania’s Uncertain Gas Revenues

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Mihalyi
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
With negotiations between the Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project continuing, a decision on whether the project will proceed is still some years away. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of the possible outcomes for the LNG project and its potential impact on public financial management. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning.
Topic:
Sovereign Wealth Funds, Gas, Legislation, Commodities, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

6. How Tanzania Can Secure a Good Deal for its Offshore Gas

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Manley
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies are negotiating the regulatory terms for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of some of the key decisions that will be made in the negotiation and their potential impact on whether the LNG project proceeds and the levels of revenues that the project could generate for the government. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning. There is a reasonable chance that foreign investment in the LNG project will not happen under current conditions. NRGI’s economic model and specific assumptions of the project suggest that a long-term LNG price of USD 11 per mmBtu is needed for investors to earn the return they usually require from LNG projects. Current forecasts by the IMF and World Bank are $7-8 per mmBtu. As the authors discuss in the brief, the chances of investment will shrink further if, during the negotiations, the government increases taxes and requires companies to share a greater portion of the gas with Tanzania’s home market. Government officials could wait and hope that conditions improve, and perhaps then impose stricter terms. However, this would delay the point at which the country would start generating benefits from the project. If officials want to accelerate development, without harming long-term gains for the country, they could: adopt a more progressive tax regime, avoid raising the share of gas to be sold to the home market, and establish a legal framework that both company managers and future generations of Tanzanians will trust.
Topic:
Gas, Regulation, Legislation, Tax Systems, Commodities, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

7. Learning Equity Requires More than Equality: Learning Goals and Achievement Gaps between the Rich and the Poor in Five Developing Countries

Author:
Maryam Akmal and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for education include the goal that “all youth...achieve literacy and numeracy” (Target 4.6). Achieving some absolute standard of learning for all children is a key element of global equity in education. Using the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) data from India and Pakistan, and Uwezo data from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that test all children of given ages, whether in school or not, on simple measures of learning in math, reading (local language), and English, we quantify the role of achieving equality between the richest 20% and the poorest 40% in terms of grade attainment and learning achievement toward accomplishing the global equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy for all children. First, excluding Kenya, equalizing grade attainment between children from rich and poor households would only close between 8% (India) and 25% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 8% (Uganda) and 28% (Pakistan) of the gap to universal literacy. Second, children from the poorest 40% of households tend to have lower performance in literacy and numeracy at each grade. If such children had the learning profiles of children from rich households, we would close between 16% (Pakistan and Uganda) and 34% (India) of the gap to universal numeracy, and between 13% (Uganda) and 44% (India) of the gap to universal literacy. This shows that the “hidden exclusion” (WDR, 2018) of lower learning at the same grade levels—a gap that emerges in the earliest grades—is a substantial and often larger part of the equity gap compared to the more widely documented gaps in enrollment and grade attainment. Third, even with complete equality in grade attainment and learning achievement, children from poor households would be far from the equity goal of universal numeracy and literacy, as even children from the richest 20% of households are far from universal mastery of basic reading and math by ages 12-13. Achieving universal literacy and numeracy to accomplish even a minimal standard of global absolute equity will require more than just closing the rich-poor learning gap, it will take progress in learning for all.
Topic:
Development, Education, Sustainable Development Goals, and Language
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, India, Asia, and Tanzania

8. Policy and Institutional Dimensions of Africa's Political Economy in an Age of Globalization

Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The advent of political independence allowed most Sub-Saharan countries to determine the appropriate mix of policies and institutions that would enable them to achieve rapid socioeconomic development. But experiences across the continent have so far yielded mixed results, and the search for an effective political economy model in the face of a rapidly globalizing world remains an ongoing challenge for most countries. In this study produced by the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) Strategic Studies Project, we ask why some developing countries seem to be growing much faster and have much better socioeconomic performance than others. Indeed, what macroeconomic policies and institutions should Sub-Saharan countries pursue to enable more sustainable, lasting, and inclusive growth while dealing with the challenges that a rapidly changing political and economic world order present? The study’s main intention was to generate knowledge to enhance the efficacy of Africa’s political economy and development pathways by identifying alternative macroeconomic policy and institutional options that can be deployed to enable deeper socioeconomic transformation.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economic Policy, and Capacity
Political Geography:
Africa, Tanzania, Egypt, and Botswana

9. A World in Transition: the Rise of Populism and the Fall of Multilateralism? (Full Issue)

Author:
Emily E. Fox, Richard Aidoo, Marten Brienen, Carlos de la Torre, Alexander B. Makulilo, and Joel Martinez
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
For the Journal’s 19th issue, we explore modern populism across the world. Richard Aidoo looks at the landscape of anti-Chinese populism in the context of Africa’s resource scramble, while Alexander B. Makulilo takes an in depth look at the siren song of populism in Tanzania. Marten Brienen and Carlos de la Torre hone in on populism in Latin America, exploring its early 21st Century evolution and its relationship with democracy respectively. Additionally, the Journal is proud to publish an interview with Ron Boquier and Raul Castillo, both of whom are active supporters of human rights in Venezuela, a county was a harbinger of recent global populist sentiment. Outgoing editor Joel Martinez speaks with Boquier and Castillo on the roles of the United Nations and United States in helping to advance democratic reform in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, Politics, Natural Resources, Law, Democracy, Populism, Multilateralism, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, Latin America, and Tanzania

10. Against Foreign Capital?: The Populist Temptation in Tanzania

Author:
Alexander B. Makulilo
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Populism has always been a contested concept. However, its core message across definitions is simply in defense of the “common people” who are often regarded as marginalized. Hence, as a movement, it claims to seek for “inclusion.” In this regard, its core assumption is just doing away with elites and establishes a more direct democracy thereby reducing inequality and exclusion. As a leader, a populist is associated with “a strongly personalistic leadership style; outsiderism, or the claim that the new leader does not originate from among the existing political class; an anti-system, antiinstitutions and anti-organisations rhetoric, often targeting political parties and political corruption; a call for restoring ‘the power of the people.’” This indicates that an individual leader becomes the center of politics in a polity thereby undermining political institutions. This, in turn, suggests “decisionism” and lack of predictability in the political system. As such, a populist leader tends to free himself from any kind of institutional control hence promoting institutional decay. As such, populism is “anti-party, antielite, anti-establishment, anti-political.” Indeed, populists are hostile to the rich, to finance capital, and to big corporations.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania