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41. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria

Author:
Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

42. Syrian National Army: Russian View

Author:
Kirill Semenov
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In autumn 2017, the Council of the Syrian Islamic Scholars devised an initiative to unite all groups of the Syrian moderate opposition into the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was supposed to become FSA 2.0. At that time, 80% of the Syrian opposition factions, including Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, as well as the majority of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) armed groups were prepared to join the SNA. It was the first time since 2012 that the FSA had managed to bring all opposition forces under its banner, and the creation of a unified military network with a common structure and command gained a new impetus. However, the SNA project was five years too late and, by the time the rebels began to merge into this new unified army, the Syrian opposition had already lost the war.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

43. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din

Author:
Anton Mardasov
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

44. Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria

Author:
Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

45. Turkey Sets Course against the West in the Mediterranean

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

46. The Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Islamic State, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

47. Putin Is the New King of Syria

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

48. Beyond the Chorus of Indignation

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

49. No Reason for Kurdish Surprise

Author:
Lazar Berman
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, and United States of America

50. Northern Syria and Israel

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
Topic:
Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria