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191. Repercussions of Shifting Power in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The recent successive setbacks suffered by Assad regime forces are causing as much alarm among Bashar al-Assad’s opponents as they are among his allies. This has also prompted the political opposition to try to use the new shift in the balance of power to push for a political process that would lead to a transitional phase, ending more than four years of deadly conflict that can be easily called a brutal civil war. The Syrian armed opposition, despite appearing more and more like a tiny detail in a much larger game of regional and international interests, can still force changes to regional and global agendas, just as much as it can still force the regime and its allies to change tactics on the ground. All that alone, however, is nowhere near enough. Unless translated into real, tangible political results that would maintain Syria’s unity, and help rebuild the country, the opposition’s victories on the ground will remain but mere, isolated events of little significance.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

192. The US and Turkey in Search of Regional Strategy: Towards Asymptomatic Trajectories

Author:
Kostas Ifantis and Ionannis Galariotis
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Security relations with the US have been critical for Turkey. Cold War strategic imperatives dictated typical bandwagoning policies, although disagreements and frictions were present at times. In the 2000s, a combination of domestic developments and rapidly changing regional security patterns has resulted in a more assertive Turkish regional security policy, which for many represents a departure from traditional Kemalist principles. This article attempts to assess the current course of Turkish regional security engagement and the extent to which relations between the USA and Turkey are subject to major change. The analytical context accounts for the impact of domestic, regional and global levels. The empirical focus is on Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian sectarian conflict and on the trajectory of the bilateral relations with Israel.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean

193. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

194. 2014 Global Terrorism Index

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the second edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 14 years beginning in 2000 and ending in 2013. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GTI is based on data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) which is collected and collated by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). The GTD is considered to be the most comprehensive dataset on terrorist activity globally and has codified over 125,000 terrorist incidents. The report summarises trends in terrorism over time and analyses its changing patterns in terms of geographic activity, methods of attack, organisations involved and the national economic and political context. The index has also been compared to a range of socio-economic indicators to determine the key factors most closely associated with terrorism. In 2013 terrorist activity increased substantially with the total number of deaths rising from 11,133 in 2012 to 17,958 in 2013, a 61 per cent increase. Over the same period, the number of countries that experienced more than 50 deaths rose from 15 to 24. This highlights that not only is the intensity of terrorism increasing, its breadth is increasing as well. Terrorism is both highly concentrated as well as a globally distributed phenomenon. Over 80 per cent of the lives lost to terrorist activity in 2013 occurred in only five countries - Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria. However, another 55 countries recorded one or more deaths from terrorist activity.
Topic:
Economics, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, Risk, Boko Haram, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Global Focus

195. The Political Science of Syria’s War

Author:
Marc Lynch, Fotini Christia, Laia Balcells, James Fearon, and Roger Petersen
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Arab Uprisings, Civil War, Spotlight, Syria POMEPS Studies 5: The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5The Political Science of Syria’s War POMEPS Studies 5 – December 18, 2013 * For more references on Syria and civil wars click here. Syria is about to enter its third year of a brutal conflict which has killed more than 100,000 people and driven millions from their homes. What began as a peaceful civil uprising inspired by the successful Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings has long since devolved into a complex, protracted civil war fueled by an array of external interventions on all sides. It’s hardly the first complex civil war to scar the modern world, though. Indeed, the study of civil wars is arguably among the richest current research programs in all of political science. So what does the political science literature on civil wars and insurgencies have to say about Syria’s evolving war and how it might be ended? To find out, last month I convened a workshop through the Project on Middle East Political Science (which also sponsors the Middle East Channel). I invited more than a dozen of the leading scholars of civil wars to write memos applying their research to the Syrian case. These scholars were joined by a number of Syria specialists, and a range of current and former U.S. government officials with responsibility for Syria. This special POMEPS Brief collects the memos prepared for that conference, along with several articles previously published on the Middle East Channel. The overall conclusion of most of the contributors will come as no surprise: The prospects for either a military or a negotiated resolution of Syria’s war are exceedingly grim. But that’s only part of the story. More interesting, perhaps, are the reasons that Syria seems so resistant to resolution — and how international policies have contributed to the problem.
Topic:
Conflict, Syrian War, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

196. Assessing Turkey’s Performance As a Norm Entrepreneur in Syrian Crisis

Author:
Cenap Çakmak
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Norms matter in world politics; and it is actually the norms, rather than complicated provisions of treaties or other formal arrangements, that the state express strong willingness to comply with. Norms are also significant as they reshape the conduct of interstate affairs and the overall outlook of the international political stage. From a constructivist perspective, norms are expected to take reign in the aftermath of a major and pervasive transformation in global stage. Such norms are further consolidated and legally backed by the repetitive compliance of states which turn them into binding customs that are applicable to all similar cases regardless of whether parties to these cases express their consent to abide by them as international legal rules.
Topic:
International Law, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Norms
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria