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12. Turkish-Syrian Rapprochement: A Path Studded with Conflicting Aims
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkish President Erdoğan has expressed his desire to meet with Syrian President Assad after years of hostility. However, reconciliation is complex due to conflicting goals: Erdoğan seeks to legitimise arrangements securing his gains, while Assad demands a full Turkish withdrawal from Syrian affairs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
13. Erdoğan and Asad’s Slow Rapprochement: Too Weak to Make a Deal
- Author:
- Joel Parker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest edition of Turkeyscope, Joel Parker discusses the chances of a rapprochement between Turkey and Syria. He argues that the Syrian regime will not accept full normalization without an end to Turkish military presence in northeastern Syria, which is unlikely to happen.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Normalization, Rapprochement, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
14. The Fall of Assad, the Future of Syria, and a Region Redrawn
- Author:
- Brian Katulis, Gonul Tol, Charles Lister, Wael Alzayat, Paul Salem, and Nimrod Goren
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- A lightning offensive by Syrian rebel groups toppled the Assad regime in less than two weeks, marking the end of a decades-long brutal and oppressive dictatorship. Though many across the country welcome the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, there remains a strong sense of uncertainty about the future. While the leading faction within the victorious opposition forces, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is moving quickly to consolidate power, outside actors are jockeying to influence the outcome and build relations with the embryonic new government or taking steps to degrade its potential to pose a security threat. To discuss where developments in Syria and the broader region are headed as well as how the incoming US administration may tackle the associated challenges and opportunities starting next year, the Middle East Institute will be hosting an expert panel discussion. The panelists will explore the following questions and more: How were the rebel groups able to make such rapid battlefield gains amidst a perceived “stalemate” in the civil war? Can the international community still halt HTS’s consolidation of power or influence its approach to governance; or could its unilateral takeover of state institutions and policies trigger domestic opposition or even renewed internecine conflict? Will ISIS and other terrorist organizations exploit the present turmoil to regroup or make gains? How do these developments impact the surrounding region, including Turkey’s stance, Iraq’s and Lebanon’s stability, Russia’s military presence, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance? And finally, can the United States “stay out” of Syria; and if not, what leverage will it have to shape the fast-moving geostrategic developments?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
15. Mapping the Post-Assad Landscape
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The collapse of the Assad regime weakens Iran and the CRINK Axis, but Islamist radicalism and rising Turkish influence demand Israel’s military vigilance and diplomatic engagement.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Islamism, Bashar al-Assad, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
16. The Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime: A Strategic Blow to Russia
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, one that Middle East experts will undoubtedly scrutinise for its broader implications. Yet, for those studying Russia, the situation holds a clear message: the downfall of Syria’s dictator is a strategic blow for Moscow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, and Syria
17. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
18. The Fall of Syria's Assad Regime: A Syrian American Perspective (Episode 23)
- Author:
- Feras Mousilli and Sahar Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- On December 8, 2024, the Syrian people overthrew Bashar Al Assad, bringing to an end a brutal fifty-four-year dictatorship. Although the Syrian people partook in the wave of revolutions during the Arab Spring, their efforts to bring about democracy in Syria were hijacked by a host of external actors in what deteriorated into a violent proxy war between Russia, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. As a result, over 300,000 Syrians were killed, and 13 million Syrians became refugees or internally displaced within the country, as explained in CSRR’s 2019 report “Toward Empowerment and Sustainability: Reforming America’s Syrian Refugee Policy (https://csrr.rutgers.edu/issues/towar...) .” Our guest, Feras Mousilli, is the founder and managing partner of the Lloyd & Mousilli law firm, a recipient of a Fulbright award from the U.S. State Department, and a leader in the Syrian diaspora in the United States. Mr. Mousilli provides the unique perspectives of Syrian Americans who have been waiting for the fall of the Assad regime for decades. He offers his insights into what led to the overthrow of Bashar al Assad and what to expect next in Syria.
- Topic:
- Diaspora, Refugees, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
19. Syria returns to the Arab League
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
- Topic:
- International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
20. Present Challenges: Will Syria return to the Arab League fold?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On April 15, 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted a meeting that included the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. The main topic on the agenda was the region’s relations with Syria and the possibility of returning to the Arab League fold after the suspension of its membership in November 2012. The visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, on April 18, to Damascus raised the question of whether recent diplomatic movements with Syria may pave the way for attending the Arab League Summit set to be held on May 19.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, and Arab League
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
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