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111. Israel and the United States Did Not See the 1973 War Coming

Author:
Zaki Shalom
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Israel’s mistaken pre-war assumptions about the 1973 War caused it to fail to foresee the potential outbreak of a war with Egypt and Syria. What were these calculations based on and why did the United States follow suit? In early October 1973, Israeli intelligence agencies began to receive information regarding Egypt’s (and Syria’s) intention to launch a war against Israel in the coming days. The timing of the expected offensive was not yet known. Only in the early morning of October 6, 1973, would a highly reliable intelligence agent of the Mossad inform Israeli authorities that war would begin in the late afternoon hours. The exact time was not mentioned, but for one reason or another the Israelis believed the Egyptian military offensive would begin at 6:00 pm. Concurrently, Egypt began to deploy massive military power along the Suez Canal, very close to Israel’s military forces on the other side of the canal. The war broke out at 2:00 pm—four hours before the expected time.
Topic:
Intelligence, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, Military, and 1973 War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, Egypt, and United States of America

112. Miscalculations and Legacies: A Look Back at the 1973 War Half a Century On

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The October 1973 War is bound to continue to fascinate historians and many others for a long time to come. There are countless dimensions to the last of the Arab-Israeli interstate wars. The obvious military aspects of the war alone are worth thousands of pages. Then there is the superpower dimension, given that the 1973 War was the first conflict of the new period of détente between the United States and the Soviet Union. There is also a leadership angle, since none of the three leaders of the United States, Egypt, and Israel were around during the 1967 War and each felt they were now being tested. There are also the public domestic dynamics and decision-making struggles each country faced, alongside other countries with various levels of engagement like Syria and Jordan. Moreover, there is the role of regional players before, during, and after the war. Needless to say, historians of the war will remain busy for quite some time. I will explore two of these many dimensions: first, an example of the miscalculations within the United States, Israel, and Egypt that impacted the war and second, the legacies of the 1973 War that cannot be separated from the miscalculations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, History, Armed Conflict, Henry Kissinger, and 1973 War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Egypt

113. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy under MBS: decision unit change and its impacts towards Yemen and Syria

Author:
María José Roa
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
If Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy involves the containment of Iran’s proxies, why, under King Salman, did Saudi Arabia attack the Houthis in Yemen, but give up its attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria? I argue here that both decisions reflect Mohammed bin Salman’s willingness to seek ‘heterodox’ solutions in foreign policy, a feature that guided Saudi foreign policy in the face of a changing decision-making unit in the Saudi regime. While MBS’s influence in the case of Yemen is more easily identified, in the case of Syria this is not so straightforward. The crown prince only acquired the ability to manoeuvre Saudi policy towards Syria after consolidating his power within the regime, in 2017, and, from there, he put in place measures that, in practice, facilitated a coexistence arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In both cases, the objective was to contain the perceived Iranian advances in a scenario of reduced appetite by the United States to provide security for Saudi Arabia. This conclusion is reached through the use of a Foreign Policy Analysis approach, more specifically, the analysis of the decision-making units, to broaden and deepen the observations made from a regime security perspective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Houthis, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), and Regime Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

114. Music as weapon: Heroic lyrical epics as tools in the PKK’s struggle

Author:
Moustafa Mohammad
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Long-form narrative songs of the genre ‘heroic lyrical epics’ have helped preserve Kurdish history and culture. They also represent a repertoire of ideals, values and inspiration to resist injustice and exclusion. The PKK has tapped into this rich musical history from its early days and used heroic lyrical epics to spread the party’s ideology, broadcast its struggle with Turkey, facilitate recruitment and create an archive to preserve the names of its foremost fighters. Moreover, the PKK has both popularized and professionalized heroic lyrical epics. By acting as a new patron for such music – in addition to the customary notables and village ‘dîwanxane’ (meeting places) – the PKK helped make heroic lyrical epics more accessible to Kurdish publics. By creating its own modern music industry (e.g. artists, studios, re-introducing past folklore elements, publishing houses), the PKK also aligned heroic lyrical epics with the spirit of modern times and the tastes of today’s youth. Professionalization especially took flight in northeastern Syria after 2011. Logically, the PKK’s motivations are less socio-cultural in nature than that they are centered on maintaining public support in its fight against Turkey.
Topic:
Culture, Kurds, Music, and PKK
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

115. Syria: Unrest and Cracks in the Status Quo

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Syria is witnessing both nonviolent and violent turmoil that extends in an arc from the north to the east, the most prominent of which disintegrating the pillars of the regime in the Sweida region, as well as the structure that brings together the SDF with some tribal factions under American backing in the eastern areas near Deir ez-Zor. These dynamics may evolve into changes in the structure and scope of control.
Topic:
Protests, Syrian War, Civil Unrest, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, Suwayda, and Deir e-Zor

116. Urban Politics in the Middle East

Author:
Mona Harb, Marc Lynch, Jillian Schwedler, Gehad Abaza, and Munqeth Othman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Urban politics has received growing attention in the anthropology, sociology, and political science of the MENA region. In line with global trends, questions of scale, territory, flows and connectivities and materialities have come to the fore, with a wide range of creative and novel lines of inquiry connecting the global to the hyper-local and every scale in between. In February 2023, POMEPS partnered with the Beirut Urban Lab at the American University of Beirut and The Policy Initiative think tank for a workshop in Beirut to bring together an interdisciplinary group of young scholars from across the region to explore questions of urban life, politics, and culture. The papers moved beyond more traditional political science topics such as municipal government, decentralization, clientelistic voting, protests, and clientelism. While those themes certainly operated in the background, the authors assembled in Beirut pushed to shift the lens towards multi-scalar ethnographic modes of inquiry, highlighting the materialities and relationalities of the hyper-local, examining sites and places which concentrate power dynamics.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Race, Religion, Sectarianism, Culture, Syrian War, Mobility, Urban, Trade, Music, Transportation, Cities, Heritage, Resistance, Labor Market, Domestic Work, and Urbicide
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Beirut, Cairo, Tunis, and Aqaba

117. Fall 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN THE IMPACT OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS ON LEBANON: GEOPOLITICAL ASPECT (THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT) ............................................................. 5 ZHAO DONGQIAN THE EVOLUTION, ACHIEVEMENTS, AND PROSPECTS OF THE CHINESE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY ................................ 15 NAZELI NAVASARDYAN, TATEVIK MANUKYAN RESUMPTION OF THE KURDISH CARD IN IRANIAN-IRAQI RELATIONS: COMPLEX INTERPLAY, PRE-REFERENDUM REALITIES ........................... 31 ARTYOM TONOYAN, LIANA PETROSYAN THE MUSAVAT AZERBAIJAN POLICY TOWARDS KURDS: PARALLELS WITH POST-SOVIET AZERBAIJAN’S ETHNIC POLICY ............................... 46 KUANG-HO YEH THE IMPLEMENTATION MECHANISM, APPLICATION, AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF TURKEY’S DRONE STRATEGY ............ 63 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE THE SYRIAN CRISIS AND THE KURDISH FACTOR: INTRA-KURDISH, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS ............................................... 83
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Geopolitics, Drones, International Relations Theory, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Syria

118. Withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq

Author:
Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
The war between Israel and Hamas has increased the threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East, particularly for the 3,400 personnel in Syria and Iraq. Since October 7, 2023, dozens of U.S. troops have been injured in attacks perpetrated by Iran-backed Shia militias in both countries, at times resulting in U.S. retaliatory strikes. Defensive measures and luck have prevented U.S. fatalities thus far. But U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq are at significant risk as long as they remain deployed there. If a U.S. ground presence served a core security interest, that risk might be reasonable. But there is no good reason to risk U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, where ISIS’s capabilities have been degraded, capable local actors eagerly hunt the group’s remnants, and the United States can still strike from long distance, if necessary, without local bases. Instead of enhancing U.S. security, the U.S. force presence in Syria and Iraq pointlessly risks war with Iran. Sending additional troops to the Middle East compounds the problem and grants U.S. adversaries in the region added leverage by giving them the ability to threaten U.S. forces. The added danger to U.S. forces is one more reason to withdraw from Syria and Iraq as a step toward de-prioritizing the Middle East more generally.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

119. Arab Nationalism in Syria

Author:
Anita Adamczyk and Fuad Jomma
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Syria is one of many countries in the Middle East diverse in terms of religion, nationality, and ethnicity. Internal divisions emerged when Syria reclaimed independence in 1946, but the differences inside Syrian society have become a taboo. One of the reasons for that was Arab nationalism, which claimed that they were all Arabs. The Syrian authorities managed to maintain the appearance of national homogeneity owing to these claims. This article aims to show the uniqueness of Arab nationalism, which is not characteristic of one country but of numerous states sharing a common past, language, and their citizens belonging to the family of the Arab nation. As a case study for Syria, this article analyses the basic concepts relevant to the subject (nationalism, the nation from the perspective of Islam, and Arab thought), the roots of pan-Arabism in Syria and its presence in the public and legal space. It also attempts to demonstrate that Arab nationalism helped the Syrian authorities (represented by the Alawite minority) blur national, ethnic, and religious differences and thus preserve the unity of society and state.
Topic:
Nationalism, Alawites, and Pan-Arabism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

120. Sheikha Munira Al-Qubaysi: Managing a Feminist Islamic Revivalist Movement in Authoritarian Syria

Author:
Sumaya Malas
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Sheikha Munira Qubaysi is not a household name when it comes to recalling influential people in the Middle East. However, her recent passing shook the region to its core since her prominence was both seen and felt throughout modern Syria as she has led at least two generations of Muslim women in an Islamic revivalist movement. The followers of her movement are often referred to as al-Qubaysiyyat.[1] Qubaysi conceived of this group in 1960s Syria as the country was recovering from the colonial period and re-imagining national identity away from the increasingly failing ideology of secular-nationalism. She found that the failures of the state towards the population, especially women, were due to a lack of spiritual grounding- a vacuum she aimed to fill. As Islam was regaining ground as a driving ideological force in the region, Qubaysi filled this aching void with a unique form of Islamic revivalism- one that centered around female scholarship and independence from the male religious establishment. Sheikha Munira and her movement’s continued success and ascendance in Syrian society has not only shaped generations of women amounting to over one hundred thousand followers,[2] but it has also established a precedent for female religious scholarship in the greater Middle East. Although Qubaysi began as an anti-colonial Islamic revivalist focused on religious purity and female empowerment, her thought leadership has given her legitimacy within the nation-state and allowed her to safely navigate the secular Ba’athist and Alawite regime. Qubaysi’s movement may seem inconsequential because of its apolitical nature, however its large national, social, and cultural impact has led to the unprecedented creation of a modern movement founded on female religious authority that continues to shape Syrian society today.
Topic:
Islam, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Feminism, and Sheikha Munira al-Qubaysi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria