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961. The ISIS defence in Iraq ad Syria: countering an adaptive enemy

Author:
Jessica Lewis McFate
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Some have claimed that ISIS is on the defensive inside Iraq and Syria. A defensive strategy, however, is not a sign of organizational weakness, but rather a sign that ISIS intends to preserve its holdings in Iraq and Syria and keep its claim to a caliphate. ISIS’s defensive strategies include expanding elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa, while also maximizing combat power and future opportunities to launch offensives inside Iraq and Syria. Iraq and Syria are the physical foundation for ISIS’s expanding caliphate.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

962. "An Army in all Corners" Assad's campaign strategy in Europe

Author:
Chris Kozak
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
U.S. policymakers in April 2015 appear to be returning to the position that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad represents the “least worst option in Syria” for American strategic interests. Assad is often compared to the Islamic State (ISIS) with the implication that Assad is the lesser of two evils. Senior administration officials including Secretary of State John Kerry signaled support for diplomatic negotiations with the regime in March 2015, rather than developing a committed strategy to remove Assad from power. American leaders’ ambivalence reflects the limitations of U.S. policy which attempts to treat Syria as the backdrop for a narrow counterterrorism problem rather than a comprehensive national security issue. This outlook is dangerously flawed.
Topic:
International Security and War Crimes
Political Geography:
Syria

963. Rethinking Nation and Nationalism

Author:
Serhun Al, Senem Aslan, Lisa Blaydes, Laurie Brand, and Kristin Fabbe
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
You couldn’t swing a dead imperialist last summer without hitting an essay about the unraveling of the Sykes-Picot system in the Middle East. The bloody disintegration of Iraq and Syria seemed to have finally ripped apart the borders created by the British and French governments in the aftermath of World War I (even if the borders in question were actually forged at San Remo). It wasn’t just the rise of the so-called Islamic State spanning and erasing the Syrian-Iraqi border. The unprecedented, synchronized popular mobilization across borders during the early Arab uprisings of 2011 gave potent form to the ideals of transnational Arab political community supplanting the limits of nation-states. As the uprisings turned darker and most of the democratic transitions failed, new challengers to nation-states in the Middle East rose to the forefront: the Islamic State; the growing de facto independence of Kurds across Iraq and Syria, with ramifications extending into Turkey and Iran; the rise of sub-regional identities carried by heavily armed militias in failing states such as Yemen and Libya; unprecedented forced displacement moving millions of people within and across borders; and raging sectarianism dividing Sunnis and Shiites. These developments have not had a singular effect on national identities, however. While some states have collapsed, creating space for new subnational identities to challenge national cohesion, most have retrenched into a fiercer form of authoritarianism. Egypt’s military coup, for instance, has been sustained by the heavy-handed promotion of extreme nationalism. Many states in the Gulf have drawn upon sectarianism to consolidate support for their regimes in ways that could have an enduring impact on popular conceptions of national identity. Battles over the proper role of Islam in public life have reshaped political discourse from Egypt and Turkey (see Senem Aslan and Kristin Fabbe in this collection) and Tunisia (Elizabeth Young). Kurds imagine new political possibilities in very different contexts, as Nicole Watts demonstrates from Halabja and Serhun Al demonstrates through the historical experience of Turkey and Iraq.
Topic:
Nationalism, Sectarianism, Displacement, Colonialism, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

964. Report inquiring into the causes and consequences of Kosovo citizens’ involvement as foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Shpend Kursani
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This report also addressed the sources of extremism in Kosovo, as well as inszed the institutional approach in Kosovo in terms of combating extremism in Kosovo and were offered specific recommendations in order to address the phenomenon of extremism / radicalism in Kosovo. The report is based on dozens of interviews with all relevant stakeholders, state institutions, religious, including dozens of field visits to the persons directly involved in the conflict and their families, as well as various literature on the issue of extremism and other statistical information.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Citizenship, Institutions, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, and Syria

965. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
Topic:
International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

966. Daesh Trumps Assad Amid Shifting International Priorities in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the Syrian crisis enters its fifth year, regional and international priorities in Syria have changed as a result of Daesh or the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s expansion. Attempts to repackage the conflict and transform its essence into “fighting terrorism” have increased. In this context, initiatives have been launched to revamp the Syrian regime’s image on the grounds that the conditions that led to the first Geneva Communique no longer exist.(1) However, the prospect that Assad’s regime can be rehabilitated to make it acceptable domestically, regionally or internationally are at best a delusion. The regime’s repressive policies during the years that followed the revolution’s outbreak has made it a polarising rather than a unifying actor, one that has broken all possible lines of political capital and made its institutions even more sectarian during the crisis. In addition, armed groups representing divergent trends have emerged, and they will necessarily play a major role in any future arrangement, one that will not present itself unless power is redistributed in a way that changes the existing system’s structure.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

967. Repercussions of Shifting Power in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The recent successive setbacks suffered by Assad regime forces are causing as much alarm among Bashar al-Assad’s opponents as they are among his allies. This has also prompted the political opposition to try to use the new shift in the balance of power to push for a political process that would lead to a transitional phase, ending more than four years of deadly conflict that can be easily called a brutal civil war. The Syrian armed opposition, despite appearing more and more like a tiny detail in a much larger game of regional and international interests, can still force changes to regional and global agendas, just as much as it can still force the regime and its allies to change tactics on the ground. All that alone, however, is nowhere near enough. Unless translated into real, tangible political results that would maintain Syria’s unity, and help rebuild the country, the opposition’s victories on the ground will remain but mere, isolated events of little significance.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

968. Held Hostage: Analyses of Kidnapping Across Time and Among Jihadist Organizations

Author:
Daniel Milton and Seth Loertscher
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In March 2013, David Haines and Frederico Motka were kidnapped while traveling together near the Turkish border in Syria. The men were both foreigners and aid workers. They were held in the same prison by the same militant group. Yet they suffered sharply different fates. In May 2014, Motka was released, while four months later, Haines became the fourth Westerner to be beheaded by the Islamic State. Press accounts noted that the major difference between the men was their nationality: Motka was Italian; Haines was British. In the summer of 2014, the Islamic State began its campaign of public executions of kidnapped Westerners. Though these barbaric acts captured the world’s attention, hostage taking is not new. Nevertheless, research designed to increase understanding of this threat is limited. Most discussions regarding kidnappings rely on anecdotal evidence, and a more detailed analysis of key questions regarding the role of group type, nationality of the victim, and outcome as they relate to kidnapping incidents has been lacking for want of publicly available data. In an effort to address this, the CTC presents “Held Hostage: Analyses of Kidnapping Across Time and Among Jihadist Organizations,” which examines trends related to the kidnapping of Westerners by jihadist groups based on data from a newly gathered open-source dataset of the kidnapping of Westerners from 2001–2015. The CTC has also publicly released the data along with this report (click here to access the database). We believe that the report and accompanying data will be an important resource for policymakers, practitioners, and academics interested in this area.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Boko Haram, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Haqqani Network, and Kidnapping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia

969. Can the Law Help? Debating Security Council Inaction on Syria

Author:
Katja Creutz
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The inaction of the UN Security Council with respect to the Syrian crisis has generated widespread aversion. Decision-makers and international humanitarian organizations have debated the particular aspects in which the Council has failed to take measures, such as the widespread abuses that civilians are suffering in the war and the prevailing impunity of the violators. International legal scholars have, however, debated whether the Security Council could be legally obliged to act in respect of a mass atrocity crisis. This represents a novel departure from the established idea that the Security Council has the right to act. Although this emerging position is controversial, it shows that the argumentation in connection to Security Council inaction is toughening up through increased resort to hard law. Many, but not all, of the advocates for imposing a duty to act on the Security Council refer to the Responsibility to Protect norm. But the exact measures that fall under the scope of the duty to act remain unclear and context-bound: there can be no specific elaboration of what the Security Council must do. The most concrete discussion has related to the limitation of the veto use of the five permanent members. Yet, the international debate does not shy away from discussing the legal consequences of Security Council inaction for the organ itself, or its member states. Until now, few scholars have sought to analyse if resort to law really can be beneficial to the overall goal of making the Security Council react to mass atrocity situations. This analysis therefore strives to discuss the elements of the debate and to answer the question ‘Can the law help?’ in remedying inaction. It will be posited that the law is no panacea when it comes to resolving when or by what means the Security Council should react when it comes to atrocity crimes. Its main value lies in building a decision-making environment in the Security Council which is open, explanatory and dialogue-based.
Topic:
International Law, United Nations, Syrian War, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria