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871. Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers

Author:
Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
International negotiations to reach a political settlement in Syria have resumed, although serious challenges remain to reaching a political settlement. The talks follow two weeks of a “cessation of hostilities” in which the Russian air campaign in Syria decreased notably, though it did not entirely cease. Putin announced that he would withdraw some airframes from Syria on March 15, incentivizing both Assad and the opposition to engage in Geneva. Major opposition demands such as the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad from office have not been met, however, and Syrian regime officials have not conceded that there should be an immediate release of political prisoners. Reaching a political deal in Geneva under these conditions will therefore be difficult. The conditions in which the Geneva negotiations are taking place still strongly favor the regime, indicating that a transitional government, if formed, likely will fail to reconcile most Sunni armed actors with the government. The result could actually increase the jihadist threat while miring the U.S. and regional states in political turmoil in Damascus.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

872. Jabhat Al Nusra and ISIS: Sources of Strength

Author:
Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman, and Jennifer Cafarella
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP are publishing the findings of this exercise in multiple reports in a series titled U.S Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS and al Qaeda.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

873. Competing visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an anti-ISIS coalition

Author:
Jennifer Cafarella
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group’s evaluation of several courses of action.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

874. The Coalition Airstrikes in Syria from the Perspective of the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Y. Emre Gurbuz
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The discussion paper by Emir Abbas Gürbüz, former intern at the position of the Independent Researcher and currently a lawyer based in Istanbul, discusses the status of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine in the customary international law and the applicability of the doctrine in the case of Syria.
Topic:
Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

875. De-Urbanising the Syrian Revolt

Author:
Isam al Khafaji
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Syrian revolt, which has disintegrated into a bloody attrition war, has been largely viewed as that of a majority Sunni population trying to depose a regime belonging to the minority Alawite sect. While this view may present a partially true explanation, it fails to explain why the involvement of different Sunni regions in the revolt varied to a large extent and the rising gap between the anti-Assad urbanites on the one hand and the armed militants on the other. It further fails to account for the wide diversity within the rebellion camp and the hostilities among the mushrooming opposition groups.
Topic:
International Affairs and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Syria

876. Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings

Author:
Dina Rashed, Michael Wahid Hanna, Ellen Lust, and Ellis Goldberg
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The early months of 2016 mark five years since the eruption of the Arab uprising. The region’s wars, failed transitions, resurgent authoritarianism, and spiraling sectarianism and Islamist extremism make for a grim anniversary. To take stock of what went wrong and what might still go differently, POMEPS asked more than a dozen scholars to reflect on the experience of the last five years in a single country or a thematic issue. What has changed since the uprisings began half a decade ago? What has remained the same, or returned to pre-uprising forms? What do these developments mean for the political science of the Middle East? All these questions, and more, are pondered in the essays published in POMEPS Studies 18, Reflections Five Years After the Uprisings. All were first published in the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, and collected in an open access PDF here. Together, the essays offer a diverse, informed study that should help scholars, journalists, policymakers and the public reflect on the five years since the Arab uprisings, and consider the Middle East’s future.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, Conflict, Syrian War, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia

877. Kurdistan: An Invisible Nation

Author:
Stefano Maria Torelli
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Spread across Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, Kurdistan is one of the hottest geopolitical areas in the Middle East. It is a land inhabited by over 30 million people, representing one of the largest stateless "nations" worldwide. The Kurds play a crucial role in the region, and the so-called "Kurdish factor" has constantly been a key ingredient of recent Middle East crises: from the wars in Iraq under Saddam Hussein to the fight against the so-called Islamic State. Not to mention the strategic relevance that Kurdistan assumes as one of the oil-richest areas in the region. What new balances would an eventual victory of Kurds over IS create? What are the long-term goals of the Kurdish community? How to reach a solution to the Kurdish question able to satisfy all the actors involved? Can we envisage a common future for the Kurds or will they remain tied to the political destinies of the countries they live in? These are just some of the questions that this report tries to answer collecting contributions from leading international experts.
Topic:
Minorities, Geopolitics, Islamic State, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

878. Putin's Russia: Really Back?

Author:
Aldo Ferrari
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Attempts by Washington and Brussels to push Russia to the fringes of global politics because of the Ukrainian crisis seem to have failed. Thanks to its important role in mediating the Iranian nuclear agreement, and to its unexpected military intervention in Syria, Moscow proved once again to be a key player in international politics. However, Russia’s recovered assertiveness may represents a challenge to the uncertain leadership of the West. This report aims to gauging Russia’s current role in the light of recent developments on the international stage. The overall Russian foreign policy strategy is examined by taking into account its most important issues: Ukraine and the relationship with the West; the Middle East (intervention in Syria, and ongoing relations with Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia); the development of the Eurasian Economic Union; the Russian pivot towards Asia, and China in particular. The volume also analyzes if and to what extent Moscow can fulfill its ambitions in a context of falling oil prices and international sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Leadership, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Syria

879. Into the Syrian Storm: Between Alliance and Alignment

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In the final months of 2015, China-Russia interaction started with President Putin’s state visit to China and ended with the 20th annual prime ministerial meeting in Beijing. While Putin’s visit was full of historical and geopolitical symbolism, the prime ministers meeting was geared for substance, aiming to energize bilateral economic relations against the backdrop of Western sanctions against Russia and China’s economic slowdown. In between, Chinese and Russian leaders met at multilateral forums, and a $2-billion sale of 24 Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter-bombers to China after eight years of negotiations was finalized. Meanwhile, the world witnessed Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, the European refugee crisis, the Paris massacre, and the rise of anti-establishment forces across the West. The apparent warming of Sino-Russian relations led to another round of questions: were they moving toward an anti-West alliance?
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

880. The Citizens' Views Against Violent Extremism and Radicalization in Kosovo

Author:
Vesë Kelmendi
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This special edition of bKS is aimed at a wide range of stakeholders interested to follow citizens’ perceptions of violent extremism and radicalization in Kosovo. Specifically, it addresses an audience that is interested to follow the trends of public opinion in Kosovo with special emphasis on Kosova citizens’ trust in and contact with religious institutions in Kosovo; threats and risks arising from the terrorist formations such as ISIS and al-Nusra; perception of the rehabilitation of returnees from Syria and Iraq as well as perceptions of the Kosovar government’s strategy to deal with this phenomenon. In general, bKS is aimed at the state level policy makers, international actors in Kosova, as well as local organizations, religious communities, civil society, academia and media.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, and Rehabilitation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Syria