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431. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:
Syria

432. Syrian Armed Opposition Powerbrokers

Author:
Jennifer Cafarella and Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
International negotiations to reach a political settlement in Syria have resumed, although serious challenges remain to reaching a political settlement. The talks follow two weeks of a “cessation of hostilities” in which the Russian air campaign in Syria decreased notably, though it did not entirely cease. Putin announced that he would withdraw some airframes from Syria on March 15, incentivizing both Assad and the opposition to engage in Geneva. Major opposition demands such as the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad from office have not been met, however, and Syrian regime officials have not conceded that there should be an immediate release of political prisoners. Reaching a political deal in Geneva under these conditions will therefore be difficult. The conditions in which the Geneva negotiations are taking place still strongly favor the regime, indicating that a transitional government, if formed, likely will fail to reconcile most Sunni armed actors with the government. The result could actually increase the jihadist threat while miring the U.S. and regional states in political turmoil in Damascus.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

433. Jabhat Al Nusra and ISIS: Sources of Strength

Author:
Harleen Gambhir, Katherine Zimmerman, and Jennifer Cafarella
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to destroy the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP are publishing the findings of this exercise in multiple reports in a series titled U.S Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS and al Qaeda.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

434. Competing visions for Syria and Iraq: The Myth of an anti-ISIS coalition

Author:
Jennifer Cafarella
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America’s global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group’s evaluation of several courses of action.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Syria

435. The Coalition Airstrikes in Syria from the Perspective of the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Y. Emre Gurbuz
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The discussion paper by Emir Abbas Gürbüz, former intern at the position of the Independent Researcher and currently a lawyer based in Istanbul, discusses the status of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine in the customary international law and the applicability of the doctrine in the case of Syria.
Topic:
Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria

436. De-Urbanising the Syrian Revolt

Author:
Isam al Khafaji
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Syrian revolt, which has disintegrated into a bloody attrition war, has been largely viewed as that of a majority Sunni population trying to depose a regime belonging to the minority Alawite sect. While this view may present a partially true explanation, it fails to explain why the involvement of different Sunni regions in the revolt varied to a large extent and the rising gap between the anti-Assad urbanites on the one hand and the armed militants on the other. It further fails to account for the wide diversity within the rebellion camp and the hostilities among the mushrooming opposition groups.
Topic:
International Affairs and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Syria

437. How Do Rebels Rule When They Win?

Author:
Kai M. Thaler
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Centerpiece
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is rare in recent years when a civil war has not grabbed global headlines—be it the ongoing civil wars and international interventions in Syria and Yemen, the fragile peace process to end Colombia’s half-century-long war, or the secession and collapse into violence of South Sudan, to name a few. This increase in media coverage reflects a growing number of civil wars around the world: since World War II, civil wars have surpassed interstate wars as the most prominent form of large-scale violent conflict. Most civil wars end in a government victory or negotiated settlement, but between one-fifth and one-third—depending on the definitions used—end in rebel victory with the capture of the central state or secession.1 Significant scholarly attention has focused on when, why, or how a rebel group takes power; we have little comparative evidence about the downstream effects of rebel victory. What state structures do victorious rebels abolish, modify, or create? How do they decide on policy priorities? What explains variation in the strength and scope of the states they build?
Topic:
Civil War, State Formation, Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

438. Schrödinger’s Kurds: Transnational Kurdish Geopolitics In The Age Of Shifting Borders

Author:
H. Akin Unver
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
As the Middle East goes through one of its most historic, yet painful episodes, the fate of the region’s Kurds have drawn substantial interest. Transnational Kurdish awakening—both political and armed—has attracted unprecedented global interest as individual Kurdish minorities across four countries, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, have begun to shake their respective political status quo in various ways. It is in Syria that the Kurds have made perhaps their largest impact, largely owing to the intensification of the civil war and the breakdown of state authority along Kurdish-dominated northern borderlands. However, in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran too, Kurds are searching for a new status quo, using multiple and sometimes mutually defeating methods. This article looks at the future of the Kurds in the Middle East through a geopolitical approach. It begins with an exposition of the Kurds’ geographical history and politics, emphasizing the natural anchor provided by the Taurus and Zagros mountains. That anchor, history tells us, has both rendered the Kurds extremely resilient to systemic changes to larger states in their environment, and also provided hindrance to the materialization of a unified Kurdish political will. Then, the article assesses the theoretical relationship between weak states and strong non-states, and examines why the weakening of state authority in Syria has created a spillover effect on all Kurds in its neighborhood. In addition to discussing classical geopolitics, the article also reflects upon demography, tribalism, Islam, and socialism as additional variables that add and expand the debate of Kurdish geopolitics. The article also takes a big-data approach to Kurdish geopolitics by introducing a new geopolitical research methodology, using large-volume and rapid-processed entity extraction and recognition algorithms to convert data into heat maps that reveal the general pattern of Kurdish geopolitics in transition across four host countries.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Borders, and Translation
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Kurdistan

439. Facilitating a Political Transition in Syria

Author:
Omar Sheira
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The Arab Spring shook the fragile foundation of Syria, effectively highlighting the pre-existing sentiments of conflict and separatism along sectarian, ethnic and tribal lines. Refusing to respond to the calls of nationwide protests, President Bashar al-Assad responded with unrestricted force, effectively plunging the country into a fully-fledged civil war, very similar to what Hobbes described as the state of nature. Five years later, the war has all but damaged Syria's security, political, economic and social domains, causing more than $200 billion of losses (Abdul Razzaq, 2015) and spilling over to cost nearby countries an estimated $35 billion (World Bank, 2016). In terms of human suffering, it has claimed the lives of 250,000-470,000, injured over 1-2 million Syrians, and forcefully displaced 54% of the pre-war population, including 4.6 million people who fled the country and 6.6 million others who were internally displaced by violence (UNOCHA, 2016). The intensifying conflict, coupled with the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has transformed Syria into an international stage for the proxy confrontation between local, regional and international powers, including the United States, Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Lebanon, as each of them supports various Syrian players in the conflict. This has led to the inability of any party to achieve an absolute military victory and prolonged the conflict, risking the expansion of its military dimensions and political consequences.
Topic:
Syrian War, Crisis Management, Proxy War, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

440. The UN and Sustainable Peace in Syria - Still Worth Debating

Author:
Patrycja Sasnal
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Against all odds and despite its unimpressive effectiveness record, the United Nations remains the sole formal authority willing to and capable of facilitating a sustainable peace in Syria. The paper will analyse the role of the United Nations in Syria, and that of the major powers that most influence the UN and global events. It will examine to what extent past conflicts and their resolution are relevant to today’s Syrian war and whether the UN has learnt from its engagement in previous conflicts and scholarly research on it. It also argues that the Trump administration may be ready to let Bashar al-Assad retake the urbanised belt of Western Syria and then push the UN to mediate in the conflict with only a fraction of the opposition involved, which would de facto legitimise the government in Damascus anew, or recognise the end of the civil war altogether.
Topic:
United Nations, Syrian War, Crisis Management, International Community, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria