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11. The pandemic has overturned our old understandings of security

Author:
Trine Villumsen Berling, Ulrik Pram Gad, Karen Lund Petersen, and Ole Waever
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
On 11 March 2020, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, addressed the nation in a press conference broadcast live from the ’Hall of Mirrors’ in the Prime Minister’s Office. The setting was grandiose, the tone was serious, the future gloomy. The coronavirus pandemic was here, and it was threatening Danish citizens, the healthcare system and the welfare state. Frederiksen announced an immediate two-week lockdown of Denmark. Now was the time to show ‘community spirit.’ Every citizen was called upon to work collectively to protect vulnerable individuals, societal cohesion and the survival of the Danish state. Gone were the threats of climate change, which dominated the general election less than a year earlier. If border control was relevant, the reason was no longer the migrants and refugees whose ‘influx’ and ‘failure to integrate’ had fundamentally re-configured the Danish party system over the last decades. Some would argue that this was a classic act of securitization requiring the concentration of all attention and resources on emergency measures to fight off an existential threat. However, what happened was much more complicated. What we saw was a complex web of translations of this security message into the daily practices of government agencies, private companies and citizens.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, and Sweden

12. Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk

Author:
Dr Vincent Boulanin, Lora Saalman, Peter Topychkanov, Fei Su, and Peldán Carlsson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This report aims to offer the reader a concrete understanding of how the adop­tion of artificial intelligence (AI) by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk and how related challenges could be addressed at the policy level. The analysis builds on extensive data collection on the AI-related technical and strategic developments of nuclear-armed states. It also builds on the authors’ conclusions from a series of regional workshops that SIPRI organized in Sweden (on Euro-Atlantic dynamics), China (on East Asian dynamics) and Sri Lanka (on South Asian dynamics), as well as a transregional workshop in New York. At these workshops, AI experts, scholars and practitioners who work on arms control, nuclear strategy and regional security had the opportunity to discuss why and how the adoption of AI capabilities by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk within or among regions.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Sri Lanka, and Sweden

13. Cyber-incident Management: Identifying and Dealing with the Risk of Escalation

Author:
Fei Su, Dr Vincent Boulanin, and Johan Turell
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The ever-increasing dependence on information and communication technologies (ICTs) in all aspects of society raises many challenges for national crisis management agencies. These agencies need to prepare not only for new cyberthreats and cyber vulnerabilities, but also for the fact that the aftermath of a cyber incident affecting critical infrastructure has its own challenges. On the one hand, the practical disruptions caused by an isolated incident can be hard to predict and control and, on the other hand, the consequences and perceptions of an incident whose cause is not yet determined can be equally hard to manage. Uncertainty around the cause of the incident and remedial actions being taken often lead to public speculation and political pressure to respond in ways that could create political tensions, and possibly conflict, between countries. This policy paper is the result of a nine-month research project that was jointly conducted by SIPRI and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) on cyber-incident management. It explores what national crisis management authorities can do to improve their cyber-incident prevention, detection and response strategies and also how they can do better to deal with the larger societal and potentially political aftermath. It investigates why and how cyber incidents may lead to escalatory scenarios and how these scenarios can be avoided and contained using various de-escalatory approaches. It comprises an introduction providing background and the inspiration of this report (section I); four sections that explore the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation from conceptual (section II), analytical (sections III–IV) and empirical (section V) standpoints; and two sections that present the main findings and recommendations (sections VI–VII).
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Sweden and Global Focus

14. The Geostrategic Arctic: Hard security in the High North

Author:
Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War meant that the Arctic region lost most of its geostrategic relevance. However, due to growing great power competition, the Arctic is back on the geopolitical map. Hard security dynamics in the region are defined by two key elements: the importance of conventional long-range missiles and nuclear weapons for Russia, and the importance of the North Atlantic sea line of communication for European defence. Russia has revitalized its Cold War-era bastion strategy, which aims to ensure the survival of its strategic ballistic missile submarines. In a crisis scenario, this strategy could pose serious challenges to the Nordic countries as well. Five Arctic states are members of NATO and the Alliance’s collective defence is operational in the Arctic. Even if the Arctic is still not a focus area for NATO, the North Atlantic maritime domain is increasingly back on the agenda. Given the divergent strategic interests and lack of common ground between Russia and other Arctic states on grand strategic issues, the Arctic will not be losing its geostrategic importance anytime soon.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Canada, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, and Arctic

15. Event Report: Exchange of Legislative Experiences on the Governance of the Security Sector in Colombia

Author:
Cristina Hoyos, Cédric Bolli, and Tobias Fontecilla
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The election of a new Congress in Colombia in March 2018 provided an opportunity to work on security sector governance and strengthen the role of Congress in overseeing the security sector in a way that helps the country face its current and future challenges. International experiences from other countries can provide relevant technical and conceptual lessons that can enrich the work of the Colombian Congress in matters of security. In this context, the Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF), the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung in Colombia (FESCOL), the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) and the Swedish Embassy in Colombia organised a forum on legislative experiences in security sector governance. The forum took place on the 6th of December 2018 in the Hall of the Constitution of the Colombian Congress in Bogotá and was attended by members of the Colombian Congress as well as parliamentarians from Sweden, Germany and the Philippines. The purpose of this event was to enable participants to partake in the debate over the role of the legislative vis-à-vis the security sector, allowing members of the Colombian Congress and their international counterparts to share lessons learned and promote good practices in security sector oversight. The event was moderated by the Honourable Senator Rodrigo Lara Restrepo, who was the Speaker of the House of Representatives (2017–2018). This Event Report summarises the presentations and discussions of the event and includes two Think Pieces produced by Dr. Mario J. Aguja for this event.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Elections, and Legislation
Political Geography:
Philippines, Colombia, South America, Germany, and Sweden

16. NORDEFCO and NATO: "Smart Defence" in the North?

Author:
Ann-Sofie Dahl
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Weekly Swedish-Finnish-Norwegian air defence training in the very north of Scandinavia; Swedish-Danish cross border exercises in the southern part of the region; Swedish-Finnish maritime patrolling in the Baltic Sea; and, in February 2014, Swedish and Finnish participation in the Iceland Air Meet exercise with NATO, led by Norway. These are only a few examples of Nordic Defence Cooperation, or NORDEFCO, the military acronym used to describe this multifaceted pattern of practical military training and cooperation across borders and security doctrines in the northernmost corner of Europe.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Norway, and Sweden

17. Comprehensive Security and Integrated Defence

Author:
Henrik Breitenbauch, Martin Hurt, Tomas Jermalavicius, Pauli Järvenpää, and Piret Pernik
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Estonian Government began employing an integrated approach to national defence in 2010. Pursuant to the National Defence Strategy, subsequent steps will include submission for Cabinet approval of the non-military sections of the National Defence Development Plan for 2013-2022. These sections deal in a coordinated manner with both military defence and essential non-military activities. The Ministry of Defence is currently drafting a National Defence Act. The report was commissioned in order to document the current state of implementation of the integrated national defence model. The Estonian Government began employing an integrated approach to national defence in 2010. Pursuant to the National Defence Strategy, subsequent steps will include submission for Cabinet approval of the non-military sections of the National Defence Development Plan for 2013-2022. These sections deal in a coordinated manner with both military defence and essential non-military activities. The Ministry of Defence is currently drafting a National Defence Act. The report was commissioned in order to document the current state of implementation of the integrated national defence model. The report identifies conditions for the successful interactions of national security and defence stakeholders in the strategic framework of comprehensive security and integrated defence. It reviews the literature on comprehensive and integrated approaches to complex security and defence challenges and extracts some key factors underpinning the effective whole-of-government and whole-of-society efforts. It then considers experiences of several nations – Denmark, Finland, The Netherlands and Sweden – in building integrated security and defence systems. Finally, the paper investigates the ‘state of play’ in Estonia when it comes to implementing the concept of integrated defence. It closes with the recommendations to Estonia‘s policymakers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, Finland, Estonia, Denmark, Sweden, and Netherlands

18. Juggling the New Triad--Energy, Environment and Security: A Case Study of the Canadian Oil Sands

Author:
Hendrik Spruyt
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
The desire to acquire reliable and cheap sources of energy has long been linked to security objectives. When the British fleet transferred from coal to oil, First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill saw to it that the British government acquired a controlling interest in the Anglo-Persian oil company (the forerunner of today's BP). In more recent years President Nixon argued for energy independence in the face of the Arab oil embargo and skyrocketing oil prices that increased twenty fold in less than a decade. And if the U.S. Department of Defense today were considered as an independent energy consumer similar to sovereign states it would outrank more than 100 countries, including such states as Sweden. Among the great powers, China in particular has linked geostrategic calculations with acquiring secure and affordable energy sources. Acquiring such sources is thus for most states a desirable objective which enhances a state's autonomy and security. Similarly, further development of such supplies is expected to correlate with enhanced security. Both objectives, however, stand in uneasy tension with new environmental concerns. Pending dramatic advances in renewable energy production, fossil fuels, such as oil and natural gas, remain key sources of energy. Indeed, in the United States 95% of the energy used in the transportation sector derives from oil. Consequently, the desire to become more energy independent or acquire reliable supplies of such energy will for the foreseeable future lead to the continued use and even further exploitation of fossil fuels. Yet, the consumption and production of fossil fuels has been one of the key sources of greenhouse gases.And if, environmental degradation in turn leads to conflict, as, for example, the work of Homer Dixon has suggested, then environmental concerns must also enter into the agenda that is usually reserved for traditional security calculations (Homer Dixon 1999).
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Arabia, Sweden, and Persia

19. From territorial defence to comprehensive security? European integration and the changing Norwegian and Swedish security identities

Author:
Pernille Rieker
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper analyses the relationship between the European integration process and the recent changes in the Norwegian and the Swedish national security identities. The aim of the paper is to compare developments in the Norwegian and the Swedish security identities in the 1990s and to evaluate the extent and scope of Europeanisation in the two cases. The fact that both Norway and Sweden had very traditional security discourses at the beginning of the 1990s and that it is possible to detect shifts away from this traditionalism in parallel with the development towards a European security dimension should prove that a Europeanisation has indeed occurred. While several researchers have studied the influence of the EU on national institutions and policies, less attention has been given to the Europeanisation of national security identities. This paper is therefore an attempt to fill this gap. The fact that Sweden has become a member of the EU while Norway has not also makes these two countries good cases for examining the extent and scope of their respective Europeanisation.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Norway, and Sweden

20. A Security and Stability in Northern Europe – A Threat Assesment

Author:
Jochen Prantl
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The accession of Finland and Sweden as well as the ongoing enlargement process, which offers the perspective of EU membership to the Baltic States, has put the question of security and stability in Northern Europe on the Agenda of the European Union.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Finland, Asia, and Sweden