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251. Caught in the Middle: China and India in Sudan's Transition

Author:
Daniel Large and Luke Patey
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Sudan is at an important, historic moment. The upcoming referendum vote may very likely result in the South becoming an independent state. Since the landmark signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2005, China, and to a lesser extent India, have become even more important political and economic partners of the ruling National Congress Party in Khartoum. Generally, commentaries and studies covering China and India's relations with Sudan focus on their interactions with the central government in Khartoum. However, this paper finds that both have also followed a necessary hedging strategy by establishing quasi-diplomatic relations with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-run Government of Southern Sudan in Juba. Both have expanded economic and political relations beyond investment in Sudan's oil sector and beyond merely engaging Khartoum. Chinese and Indian engagement with the GOSS in Juba marks a major shift in policy from dealing exclusively with the central government. The adaptation of both to political developments, however, does not leave them invulnerable to present uncertainties revolving around Sudan's potential split. Due to its economic role in Sudan, China in particular is in a unique position to promote a peaceful transition.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Sudan, and India

252. Negotiating Sudan's North-South Future

Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's fragile Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is entering its final phase, and a critical vote on Southern self-determination looms, but foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid. In addition to a handful of outstanding CPA items, future arrangements on citizenship and nationality, natural resource management (oil and water), currency, assets and liabilities, security and international treaties must be negotiated, regardless of the referendum's outcome. Many in Sudan and abroad are focused on ensuring the referendum exercise takes place on 9 January as planned. But simultaneously pursuing agreement on the broader postreferendum agenda is not only critical for a peaceful transition and long-term regional stability, but may also serve the more immediate objective of clearing the path for a mutually accepted referendum.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

253. Sudan Debt Dynamics: Status Quo, Southern Secession, Debt Division, and Oil–A Financial Framework for the Future

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are scheduled to vote in a referendum on whether to remain unified with the central government in Khartoum or break away to form a new, fully independent country. While the Khartoum government remains committed to a unified Sudan, all indications suggest that the Southern Sudanese will vote for secession by an overwhelming majority. Khartoum's willingness to accept the potential losses remains unclear. Many suspect that its ultimate actions will depend, at least in part, upon the resolution of key outstanding issues, such as oil and debt. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of Sudan's $35 billion in external debt obligations – both for a unified Sudan and a possible Southern secession. First, it examines Sudan's existing debt dynamics and the potential eligibility for traditional debt relief and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Second, it outlines potential options for dividing Sudan's external debt obligations in the event of a Southern secession. Third, it estimates external indebtedness ratios under each debt division scenario and the potential relevance of traditional debt relief treatments. Lastly, the paper provides an indicative roadmap for clearing Sudan's loan arrears of $30 billion and potentially securing comprehensive debt relief in the future.
Topic:
Civil War, Debt, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

254. A Political Storm Over the Nile

Author:
Adonia Ayebare
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The Nile River basin is a vast area covering ten states, of which five are among the poorest in the world. Home to more than 350 million people, it is a troubled region that has been ravaged by armed conflicts, state failure, genocide, severe drought, and aid dependency. But it is also an area with great potential and geopolitical significance. In the past, the Nile River, with its origin in East and Central Africa, has been at the center of international affairs, most critically during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956. Currently, the Nile is among the postreferendum issues being negotiated by parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan: the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Topic:
Natural Resources and Water
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Arabia, and North Africa

255. Ghosts of Christmas Past: Protecting civilians from the LRA

Author:
Ellie Kemp and Verity Johnson
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve 2008 and over the following three weeks, 865 women, men and children were savagely beaten to death and hundreds more abducted by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in a remote corner in the north-east of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and in southern Sudan. The attack was a murderous backlash in response to Operation “Lightning Thunder”, a military offensive launched some 10 days before against the LRA by Uganda, DRC and southern Sudan. Less than a year later, between 14 and 17 December 2009, LRA commanders oversaw the killing of more than 300 people, again shattering communities in a remote corner of northern DRC.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Sudan

256. Engaging with Communities: The next challenge for peacekeeping

Author:
Clea Kahn
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The protection of civilians from the worst ravages of war is a dilemma that international bodies have sought to address for decades. However, despite lessons learned from the atrocities of Rwanda and Srebrenica, among others, civilians are still not only adversely affected by armed conflict; they are too often directly targeted.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Intelligence, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Sudan

257. Doing Justice to the Political: The International Criminal Court in Uganda and Sudan

Author:
Sarah M.H. Nouwen and Wouter G. Werner
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
International criminal justice has become a weapon in political struggles in Uganda and Sudan. In this light, this article discusses the political meaning of the International Criminal Court's judicial interventions. It argues that the ICC, presented by its advocates as a legal bastion immune from politics, is inherently political by making a distinction between the friends and enemies of the international community which it purports to represent. Using original empirical data, the article demonstrates how in both Uganda and Sudan warring parties have used the ICC's intervention to brand opponents as hostis humani generis, or enemies of mankind, and to present themselves as friends of the ICC, and thus friends of the international community. The ICC Prosecutor has at times encouraged this friend–enemy dichotomy. These observations do not result in a denunciation of the Court as a 'political institution'. On the contrary: they underline that a sound normative evaluation of the Court's activities can be made only when its political dimensions are acknowledged and understood.
Political Geography:
Uganda and Sudan

258. Sudan: Fulfilling the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Sudan stands today at a precipice. In 100 days the South will hold a referendum on self-determination with a vote for independence expected. Extensive early warnings exist indicating a real threat of the commission of mass atrocities surrounding the referendum, with those populations most at risk already identified. This threat looms while intertribal violence in the South is rising; conflict in Darfur persists; attacks by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in Central and Western Equatorial states continue unabated; and a return to war in the South is a possibility.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

259. Complex Operations in Weak and Failing States: The Sudan Rebel Perspective

Author:
William Reno
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The U.S. Government provides a comprehensive plan for civilian-military efforts in failing states aimed at showing citizens that their own governments can protect them. The object is to weaken any appeal that rebels might develop among these populations. In Sudan, which ranks third in a prominent index of failed states, this effort entails U.S. coordination of humanitarian aid, the provision of basic social services, and help to improve governmental function. This latest effort, part of the implementation of a 2005 peace agreement between a rebel army and Sudan's government, is part of an intensive 20-year official engagement with this country and its conflicts.
Topic:
Population
Political Geography:
United States and Sudan

260. Conduct and Discipline in Un Peacekeeping Operations: Culture, Political Economy and Gender

Author:
Catherine Lutz, Matthew C. Gutmann, and Keith Brown
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Systematic patterns of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) have emerged around UN peacekeeping missions over the course of many years.1 Reports of abuse by peacekeepers in Cambodia and the Balkans in the 1990s were followed by news of similar problems in West African missions in 2001 and 2002. The Secretary General subsequently issued a 2003 Bulletin outlining a zero-tolerance policy, but the abuse continued. In 2004, peacekeeper misconduct became widely known through mainstream media reports that UN personnel in MONUC, the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, had been engaging in sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) of local women and children. The SEA included, most egregiously, peacekeepers' exchange of UN food supplies or money for sex with young girls and sometimes boys. SEA has been a particular problem in mission areas where extreme poverty and conflict or post-conflict trauma and social dislocation drive local people to sell their bodies, but it has occurred in more developed contexts as well, such as Cyprus and Kosovo. The UN response to these problems has been to establish, in 2005, a Conduct and Discipline Unit with offices in New York and mission areas, charged with addressing the problem in a variety of ways. SEA continues to occur since then, with serious incidents revealed in Sudan, Liberia, Haiti, Cote d'Ivoire, and again in the Congo.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Gender Issues, Sex Trafficking, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Sudan, Kosovo, Cambodia, Haiti, Liberia, West Africa, and Cyprus