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221. The Responsibility to Protect and Sudan: An Update

Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 9 January the people of South Sudan will begin voting in a highly anticipated referendum on independence. As described in the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect's policy brief dated 6 October 2010, “Sudan: Fulfilling the Responsibility to Protect,” there has been concern that mass atrocities would be perpetrated in the period surrounding the referendum. At that point the Global Centre called on the Government of Sudan (GoS), the Government of South Sudan (GoSS), and key international actors to implement a “coordinated and comprehensive strategy to address risks” of violence and atrocities, in keeping with their commitment to the responsibility to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Civil War, Genocide, Human Rights, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Sudan

222. Sudan's Moment of Opportunity

Author:
Scott Gration
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Fewer than six months ago, many feared that Sudan stood at the brink of disaster. The January 2011 Southern Sudan referendum appeared unlikely to be held on time and had the potential to plummet Sudan back into the cycle of violence and human suffering that characterized much of its past. But no such crisis emerged. Instead, with the support of the international community, the referendum took place on-time in a peaceful and orderly manner. Millions of southern Sudanese cast their ballots without violence or intimidation. International observers judged that the vote was credible and took place in a manner broadly consistent with international standards, and most significantly, the Government of Sudan agreed to respect the results. Instead of facing the worst case scenario that many had projected, the referendum proved a marked success.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Sudan

223. Toward a New Republic of Sudan

Author:
Jon Temin and Theodore Murphy
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Approaches to Sudan's challenges—by both Sudanese and the international community— have been fragmented and regionally focused rather than national in scope. They overlook fundamental governance challenges at the roots of Sudan's decades of instability and the center of the country's economic and political dominance of the periphery, which marginalizes a majority of the population. Such fragmentation diffuses efforts into fighting various eruptions of violence throughout the periphery and confounds efforts to address governance and identity issues. Ongoing processes in the future Republic of Sudan, sometimes referred to as north Sudan, continue this trend. While Darfur negotiations and popular consultations in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states should continue, they should eventually be subsumed into a national process aimed at addressing the root causes of Sudan's governance failures. The process should feed into, and then be reified by, development of a new national constitution. Even now the goal of these regional processes should be re-envisaged as steps toward a national process. Sudanese negotiations largely occur between elites. Negotiators often cannot claim genuine representativeness, resulting in lack of broad buy-in and minimal consultation with the wider population. The ongoing Darfur negotiations are a case in point. To avoid prolonging the trend, a more national process should be broad-based and consultative. It should feature an inclusive dialogue, involving representatives from throughout the periphery, about the nature of the Sudanese state and how to manage Sudan's considerable diversity. Southern secession in July 2011 presents an opportunity for Sudanese to take a more comprehensive, holistic approach to their governance problems. Significant adjustments are warranted by the end of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, such as the development of a new constitution. The opportunity to initiate fundamental governance reform may be ripe because the ruling National Congress Party is under intense political and economic pressure. The Arab Spring revolts, the economic shock of lost oil revenue, and the proof of governance failure that southern secession represents have inspired, among some NCP leaders, a belief in the necessity of preemptive change. Any reform of northern governance should be led by Sudanese. Perceptions that external actors are forcing change can be counterproductive. The international community can support a reform process but should tread carefully. International efforts should focus on promoting an enabling environment in which nascent Sudanese-led efforts can take root and grow. Support to constructive voices and aid to inchoate political initiatives should be available when requested. Supporting a national process poses a challenge for the international community as its capacity, pressure, and incentives are already distributed across the various regional political processes. Pressures and incentives are tied to specific benchmarks defined by those processes, making it difficult to reorient them toward the new criteria dictated by a national process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

224. Seeking peace and security in the Horn of Africa: the contribution of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development

Author:
Sally Healy
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article assesses the contribution that IGAD has made to regional security in the Horn of Africa since the adoption of its peace and security mandate in 1996. It describes the evolution of IGAD and its mandate in the context of regional conflict and wider African peace and security processes. It explores the local dynamics of the two major IGAD-led peace processes, in Sudan (1993–2005) and in Somalia (2002–2004), and discusses the effectiveness of IGAD's institutional role. A consideration of the wider impact of the peace agreements highlights the way IGAD has enhanced its role by setting the agenda on peace support operations in Somalia. The article concludes that IGAD's successes are more the result of regional power politics than of its institutional strength per se. Despite the obvious need for a better regional security framework, the scope for the IGAD Secretariat to develop an autonomous conflict-resolution capability will remain limited. However, IGAD brings a new diplomatic dimension to conflict management that locks in regional states and locks out interested parties beyond the region. With regard to Somalia, the organization has played a pivotal role in directing African and wider international responses to conflict in the region.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Somalia

225. South Sudan: Compounding Instability in Unity State

Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Unity state confronts a set of challenges unparalleled in South Sudan. Some exemplify concerns that register across the emerging republic; others are unique to the state. Situated abreast multiple frontiers, its political, social, economic and security dilemmas make for a perfect storm. Some have festered for years, while more recent developments—prompted by the partition of the "old" Sudan—have exacerbated instability and intensified resource pressure. Recent rebel militia activity has drawn considerable attention to the state, highlighting internal fractures and latent grievances. But the fault lines in Unity run deeper than the rebellions. A governance crisis—with a national subtext—has polarised state politics and sown seeds of discontent. Territorial disputes, cross-border tensions, economic isolation, development deficits and a still tenuous North-South relationship also fuel instability, each one compounding the next amid a rapidly evolving post-independence environment. Juba, and its international partners, must marshal attention and resources toward the fundamental sources of instability in places like Unity if the emerging Republic is to realise its full potential.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Sudan

226. Return to War in Sudan's Nuba Mountains

Author:
Julie Flint
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The response to the renewed war in Sudan's Nuba Mountains has been driven largely by a human rights and humanitarian crisis. The crisis will continue indefinitely without a political agreement that acknowledges the Nuba rebellion is self-sustaining and reflects a wider malaise within the new Republic of Sudan. With Sudan facing financial collapse, economic normalization must be part of negotiations with Khartoum to end the war in the Nuba Mountains and promote democratization throughout Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Human Rights, War, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

227. Sudan Between Peace and War

Author:
Jon Temin
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In a historic referendum that took place in January, the people in southern Sudan voted whether to remain part of a united Sudan or to secede. Possibilities of creation of the first new state in Africa since 1993 were high. The article discusses the events leading up to the scheduled vote, possible outcomes, and responses to the post-referendum situation in the region.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

228. Preventing and Responding to Atrocity Crimes in Africa: Interrogating the African Response in Darfur

Author:
Vincent O. Nmehielle
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal of Legal Studies
Institution:
The Africa Law Institute
Abstract:
There has been much scholarly and public debate regarding whether the ongoing atrocities in Darfur constitute “genocide”. This article posits that, irrespective of the description given to the mass atrocities taking place in the Sudan, there needs to be a more formidable response and intervention by the world community. As part of this, the author examines the African Union (AU) engagement with the Darfur crisis, within the context of Sudan's membership in the AU. Contending that Darfur is the first litmus test of how the AU is different from its predecessor, the Organization of African Unity, he argues that Darfuris would only realize the benefits of the new regional body if perpetrators of egregious human rights violations are brought to justice.
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

229. Assessing the African Union Concerns about Article 16 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court

Author:
Dapo Akande, Charles C. Jalloh, and Max du Plessis
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal of Legal Studies
Institution:
The Africa Law Institute
Abstract:
This article assesses the African Union's (AU) concerns about Article 16 of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). It seeks to articulate a clearer picture of the law and politics of deferrals within the context of the AU's repeated calls to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC, or the Council) to invoke Article 16 to suspend the processes initiated by the ICC against President Omar Al Bashir of Sudan. The Council's failure to accede to the AU request led African States to formally withhold cooperation from the ICC in respect to the arrest and surrender of the Sudanese leader. Given the AU's continued concerns, and the current impasse, fundamental questions have arisen about the Council's authority to exercise, or not exercise, its deferral power. This culminated into a November 2009 African proposal for an amendment to the Rome Statute to empower the UN General Assembly to act should the UNSC fail to act on a deferral request after six months. Although ICC States Parties have so far shown limited public support for the AU's proposed amendment to the deferral provision, this article examines its merits because a failure to engage the “Article 16 problem” could impact international accountability efforts in the Sudan, and further damage the ICC's credibility in Africa. This unresolved issue also has wider significance given that the matters underlying the tension ‐ how ICC prosecutions may be reconciled with peacemaking initiatives and the role and power of the Council in ICC business ‐ will likely arise in future situations from around the world.
Topic:
United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

230. Irregular Conflict and the Wicked Problem Dilemma: Strategies of Imperfection

Author:
Franklin Kramer
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Irregular conflict is neither neat nor fair. Definitionally, it is hard to describe, including as it does conflicts ranging from Somalia to Bosnia to Sierra Leone to Colombia to Iraq to Afghanistan (to say nothing of Sudan, the Philippines, or Yemen). Hybrid, counterinsurgency (COIN), stability operations, counterterrorism, and civil war have all been utilized as descriptions, often in combination. But if defining irregular conflict is difficult, even more difficult is knowing how to respond, especially for an outside intervener like the United States. Doctrine has now been developed, but in practice the context of an irregular conflict is generally so complex and contradictory that it is difficult to put the full doctrine effectively into practice.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Sudan, Bosnia, Philippines, Yemen, Colombia, Sierra Leone, and Somalia