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191. Macroeconomic Impact of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
John Weeks
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of capital flight on growth in thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. It first considers the “macro fundamentals” hypothesis that capital flight would be lower in a country whose government adhered to “sound” macroeconomic policies. Analytical considerations fail to support this hypothesis. Second, it develops a growth estimating equation derived from the Harrod-Domar framework. The growth estimations support the conclusion that capital flight had a major impact on growth over the last three decades, 1980–2010. The negative impact was greatest for the petroleum-exporting countries and those affected by internal conflict, but it was also substantial for the other countries, with a few exceptions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Global Markets, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Capital Flight
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Cameroon, Global Focus, Gabon, and Republic of Congo

192. Sudan: Security Crackdown Puts Dialogue at Risk

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Arrests of leading opposition figures, including Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the National Ummah Party and imam of the Ansar sect, and Ibrahim Sheikh, chair of the Sudanese Congress Party, have cast doubt on current transformations in the Sudanese political landscape. The government recently resumed restrictions on press freedoms and suspended the newly launched al-Saiha newspaper which had waged a widely-publicised media campaign after exposing extensive corruption in government agencies. Perhaps the most important development casting doubt on the political landscape is the expanding pivotal role played by security forces and the National Intelligence Service in politics and the military. These incidents raise questions about the government’s commitment to change and further complicate the country’s political landscape. The likely repercussions may be a paper reshuffle in the political game, with a reshaped balance of power as an alternative to escalation during a time the public is hoping the Sudanese National Dialogue Initiative will succeed.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

193. What Syria Has to Teach Neo-Conservatives and Liberals about US Foreign Policy

Author:
Tom Farer
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The only means available to the US to assume a responsibility to protect the Syrian people from slaughter was by credibly threatening Bashar al-Assad and the security and military elite surrounding him with a decapitating air strike if they did not immediately cease murdering protestors and begin negotiations with opposition figures to the end of making the regime broadly representative of the Syrian population. Credibility probably demanded an initial decimation, a technically possible move. In part because the US lacks the ideology and institutional structure of a real imperial power, in part because it is post-Bush a careful calculator of national interests, Syria, unlike Libya but much like Sudan and the DRC, was a bridge too far.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Sudan, Libya, and Syria

194. Pathway to National Dialogue in Sudan

Author:
Jon Temin and Princeton N. Lyman, Ph.D.
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sudan urgently needs to embark on a national dialogue and reform process that is led by Sudanese and supported by the international community. The process should be broadly inclusive, involving elements of the current regime, Islamists, and all armed and unarmed opposition groups. Any meaningful process will be lengthy, likely requiring years to complete. If a genuine, inclusive process is underway, elections in 2015 may need to be delayed. The African Union High-Level Implementation Panel has a critical role to play in advocating for and guiding such a process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

195. Sudan: Preserving Peace in the East

Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in Sudan’s forgotten East – without deadly conflict since the 2006 Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) – stands in contrast to the fighting besetting the country’s other peripheries. But this peace is increasingly fragile. Seven years after the ESPA’s signing, the conflict’s root causes remain and in some respects are more acute, due to the failure to implement many of the agreement’s core provisions. Mirroring elsewhere in the country, with no sign of genuine efforts by Khartoum to address the situation, conflict could erupt in the East again and lead to further national fragmentation. All ESPA stakeholders urgently need to reconvene and address the deteriorating situation; the leading sign atories need publicly to concede that the promises of the original agreement have not met expectations and reach a consensus on remedial measures.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

196. "We are one, but we are different": Murle identity and local peacebuilding in Jonglei State, South Sudan

Author:
Diana Felix da Costa
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Despite the Murle group being politically and economically marginalised, local and national political and popular discourses portray this group as the main aggressor in South Sudan's Jonglei State. This widely asserted narrative ignores the fact that responsibility for the cycle of violence in Jonglei rests with all those perpetrating violence and certainly not solely with one group. While sharing an overarching ethnic identity, when it comes to issues of peacebuilding, the Murle can be neither seen nor treated as a consolidated group. Rather, there are cattlekeeping Murle living in the lowlands of Pibor county and agrarian Murle living in the Boma Plateau; there are also age-sets, clans and many other differentiating factors. Accusing all Murle of responsibility for violence only serves to magnify the sense of marginalisation and isolation felt by the Murle as a whole. This policy brief seeks to address some of the differences between the cattlekeeping lowlands Murle and the cultivating highlands Murle from the Boma Plateau. By doing so, it highlights the importance of understanding cultural specificities and the local political economy and, when it comes to peacebuilding, of differentiating who is responsible for a specific conflict and who has influence over those responsible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

197. The CPA Failure and the Conflict in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile States

Author:
Benedetta De Alessi
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article examines the conflict emerged in the Sudan’s states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army - North (SPLM/A-N) in the aftermath of the Referendum for self-determination that led to the separation of South Sudan from Sudan. It makes the point that the conflict in the so-called Two Areas - the North/South border regions of Sudan that fought alongside the SPLM/A during the country’s second civil war - is the direct result of the failure of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address Sudan’s issue of sovereignty beyond the north/south divide, both in its design and implementation. As a result of the CPA, neither peace nor democracy was reached in Sudan. The analysis also looks at the question of liberal peacebuilding and its flawed application in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

198. Mali's Moment: The July 2013 Elections

Author:
John Price
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
As the United States drove Islamist insurgents from Afghanistan, many migrated to Yemen, eventually reaching the Horn of Africa, which became the “epicenter” for al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden was indoctrinated by Wahhabist imams in Saudi Arabia, a sect that espouses armed jihad. In 1987, bin Laden formed al-Qaeda (the base) in Afghanistan, with his mujahedeen fighters. In 1991, he moved to Sudan with his al-Qaeda lieutenants and spent the next five years plotting attacks against Western interests.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Sudan, Yemen, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Mali

199. Linking People, Crossing Borders: A Conversation with Mo Ibrahim

Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
World Policy Journal
Institution:
World Policy Institute
Abstract:
Born in northern Sudan at the end of World War II, educated in England with a Ph.D. in engineering and mobile communications, Mo Ibrahim returned to Africa in 1998, bringing cellular technology with him. At the time of his arrival, there were barely three million landline telephones on the entire continent—the bulk of them in North Africa and the nation of South Africa. Most of sub-Saharan Africa was all but inaccessible to terrestrial telephone lines. The Democratic Republic of Congo had only 3,000 phones to serve its population of about 55 million. Seeing demand for mobile phones and with little competition from landlines, Mo Ibrahim created Celtel, beginning in Kenya, branching quickly into Uganda and Tanzania. The company allowed millions of mobile subscribers to roam freely across borders, recharging with local cards as they went. Quickly, Celtel expanded across Gabon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Malawi, Zambia, and finally his native Sudan—a vast pan-African territory almost devoid of telecommunications boundaries. By the time he sold Celtel five years ago, he had linked 24 million people—a number that was growing exponentially.
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Sudan, South Africa, North Africa, and England

200. Military Strengthens Grip on Sudanese Regime

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir’s recent changes to his cabinet resulted in the exit of seven major regime actors, sparking questions about hidden agendas because the changes were limited to civilian members of the government. The military’s role was enhanced by this shuffle, casting doubt on the criteria under which the civilian members of the cabinet were dismissed. The urgency of these substantial changes indicates Bashir is working under an undisclosed but important imperative that is associated with the upcoming presidential election as well as the desire of the incumbent Sudanese leadership to protect itself from prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Topic:
Military Affairs, Elections, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:
Sudan and Africa