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71. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule

Author:
Anette Hoffman
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
Topic:
Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

72. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

73. The Role of Libraries in Post-conflict Societies

Author:
Zurab Elzarov
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The implementation of the Library of Peace project was a model of successful cooperation between UNAMID, the Government of Sudan (State Ministry of Culture, Sports and Youth), UNICEF, civil society and the public library personnel
Topic:
Civil Society, Governance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

74. Reflecting on the Role of Regional and International Interventions in Resolving the Post-coup Crisis in Sudan

Author:
Clayton Hazvinei Vhumbunu
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conflict Trends
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The overthrow of Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir from the presidency of Sudan by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on 11 April 2019, following several months of protests and civil uprisings by Sudanese citizens, resulted in a prolonged governance and political crisis. Al-Bashir, who was a SAF lieutenant general, came to power in June 1989, through a military coup d’état staged against Sadiq al-Mahdi, who was the then-prime minister of Sudan. Al-Bashir had been in power for almost 30 years, making him one of the longest-serving presidents on the continent. Following his ousting on 11 April 2019, internal political players and stakeholders – mainly the ruling Transitional Military Council (TMC) and a coalition of protesters and opposition groups, led by the Alliance for Freedom and Change/Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) in Sudan – failed to speedily agree and settle on an effective transitional governance authority.
Topic:
Governance, Social Movement, Military Intervention, Protests, Coup, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

75. Bad company: How dark money threatens Sudan’s transition

Author:
Jean-Baptiste Gallopin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Sudan’s transition to constitutional rule is failing: the reform of political institutions has not begun, while the country faces an intensifying economic crisis, a dramatic decline in living conditions, and a flare-up in localised violence. The civilian wing of the Sudanese state is bankrupt but unwilling to confront powerful generals, who control a sprawling network of companies and keep the central bank and the Ministry of Finance on life support to gain political power. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be positioning a paramilitary leader known as Hemedti as Sudan’s next ruler, but the military is fiercely hostile towards him. Western countries and international institutions have let the civilian wing of the government down: they failed to provide the financial and political support that would allow Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to hold his own against the generals. The transition will only succeed if the government stabilises the economy and civilians work hard to tilt the balance of power away from the military and towards themselves. Europeans should use their relationships with Hamdok, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to establish civilian control of the generals’ networks of companies.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Reform, Finance, and Transition
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

76. Resource-Backed Loans: Pitfalls and Potentialloan

Author:
David Mihalyi, Aisha Adam, and Jyhjong Hwang
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Through “resource-backed loans” (RBLs) countries access finance in exchange for, or collateralized by, future streams of income from their natural resource wealth. The authors of this report reviewed countries’ past experiences with RBLs across sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America from 2004 to 2018. They identify risks and opportunities RBLs pose and provide recommendations for countries considering taking RBLs in the future. The researchers identified 52 RBLs, 30 of which were taken by countries in in sub-Saharan Africa and 22 in Latin America. They are distributed across 14 countries in the two regions. Thirty-eight were lent by Chinese policy banks, seven are from commodity traders, four are from other Chinese state-owned enterprises, one is from Korea Exim, one is from Nigeria and one is from Russia's Rosneft. Forty-three of the loans are backed by oil, six by various minerals, two by cocoa, and one by tobacco. The total loan amount represented in the dataset is $164 billion, of which $66 billion went to Africa and $98 billion to Latin America.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Finance, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Ecuador, Guinea, South Sudan, and Congo

77. After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

Author:
Aly Verjee
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Almost every modern peace agreement has established some type of institution to oversee implementation of the agreement’s provisions and monitor compliance. This report provides a careful examination of monitoring and oversight mechanisms set up in Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Sudan, and South Sudan between 1999 and 2015, and offers a series of key lessons for the design of future monitoring mechanisms.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Indonesia, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan

78. China’s Response to Sudan’s Political Transition

Author:
Laura Barber
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sudan's decades-long economic relationship with China has almost always been dominated by oil. Yet this relationship has changed significantly in the past decade—first with the loss of oil reserves when South Sudan became an independent nation in 2011, and more recently due to the ouster of longtime ally President Omar al-Bashir. This report, based on interviews with policy officials, diplomats, industry and security experts, and others, examines China’s evolving commercial and political interests in this vital nation in the Horn of Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Sudan, and Asia

79. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government

Author:
Isma'il Kushkush, Mohamed Solman, and Jérôme Tubiana
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashir’s 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Government’s inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises. How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudan’s constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudan’s relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI) brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people.
Topic:
Environment, Politics, Social Media, Protests, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

80. Protests and Solidarity Movements in the Middle East

Author:
Zahra Hankir, Zahra Ali, Razan Ghazzawi, Lokman Slim, and Ahmed Abu Artema
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
From independence movements in the 20th century to the Arab uprisings of 2011, to today’s ongoing movements in Iran, Iraq, Sudan, Algeria, and Lebanon, protests have marked key turning points for opening up new dialogues and drawing international attention to the Middle East as citizens speak out against injustice in their governing systems. Today we are witnessing not only Lebanon and Iraq’s powerful protest movements calling for greater rights and an end to corruption, but also solidarity movements in Palestine and Syria supporting the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. What common goals are shared by protest movements across the Middle East? What lessons can the civil resistance currently surging in the United States learn from social movements and activism in the Middle East, and vice versa? What impact has COVID-19 had on ongoing protests in Lebanon and Iraq? Join our panel of experts as we discuss the outcomes, lessons learned, and future of social movements across the Middle East. Moderated by freelance journalist and author Zahra Hankir.
Topic:
Social Movement, Solidarity, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, and Lebanon