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31. R2P Monitor, Issue 65, 1 June 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 65 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

32. R2P Monitor, Issue 64, 1 March 2023

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly bulletin applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 64 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mozambique, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Mozambique, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Niger, and Burkina Faso

33. Ending the use of child soldiers

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, and Eric Oehlerich
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Mick Mulroy and Eric Oehlerich, Senior Fellows with MEI’s Defense & Security Program and the Co-founders of the Lobo Institute and End Child Soldiering, to discuss efforts to stop the recruitment and use of children in combat and rehabilitate former child soldiers. The use of child soliders is a widespread global problem that has a disproportionate impact on the broader Middle East, especially in Yemen, Syria, Sudan, and Somalia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Rehabilitation, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Sudan, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia

34. A US agenda for action in Sudan’s information environment

Author:
Cameron Hudson
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
There are few African countries that have received the same degree of high-level and sustained attention from the US government, during the administrations of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as the Republic of Sudan. While this engagement stems in large part from a long history of Washington leading diplomatic efforts to isolate the Sudanese government for its support for terrorism during the 1990s, advance the peace process in the country’s north-south civil war, and eventually punish the government for the Darfur genocide, Washington’s renewed diplomatic engagement at the time of Sudan’s 2018 popular uprising reflected a sense of opportunity that real change was potentially coming to the country. The historic events during the spring and summer of 2019, beginning with longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir’s arrest and removal by senior army officers and the brokering of a civilian-military hybrid government, created both an opportunity and what many in Washington saw as an obligation to help Sudan’s transition succeed. After decades of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation, the installation of a civilian-led government created the minimal condition that allowed Washington and Western allied governments to begin the task of providing a trusted local partner with the assistance to begin reforming the political system, stabilizing the economy, and transforming the armed forces that would eventually enable a full transition to democracy, one of the popular demands of the revolution. By late 2019, during a historic visit to Washington by Sudan’s newly named prime minister, Abdallah Hamdok, the Trump administration announced a process to normalize diplomatic relations with Sudan through an exchange of ambassadors, among other steps. Privately, the Trump administration also set about the task of constructing an assistance package that would meet the moment and provide the technical, financial, and development assistance needed to demonstrate a true “democracy dividend” to the vast majority of average Sudanese who were by this time struggling under the weight of financial collapse brought on by the one-two punch of regime neglect and, soon, COVID-19 shutdowns. Washington, however, was both ill-postured and slow to foresee the monumental political opening occurring in the early days of the revolution and then further delayed by an interlocking web of restrictions and prohibitions, some of them self-imposed and some imposed by the US Congress, that limited its ability to scale up resources in a timely manner. In addition to the challenges of having to undo more than twenty-five years of bureaucratic restrictions and red tape, Washington also needed to scale up its human resources inside Sudan that had largely dwindled over the years.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Internet, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, North America, and United States of America

35. Kleptocracy versus Democracy

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi and Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Throughout Sudan’s history, key security actors have shaped the distribution of power and wealth, effectively consolidating both in the hands of their loyal supporters and business partners. The resulting political economy has outlived the country’s long-term dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was ousted by a popular uprising in 2019, it has obstructed the country’s ensuing transition to democracy, and it continues to undermine present attempts at ending the war. While individuals, alliances and businesses change over time, the mechanisms deployed by these networks to retain and expand power have remained the same. They have created an ecosystem that impedes rather than enabling competition and growth, holding Sudan’s private sector hostage to their own power ambitions. Yet, amidst this history of political instability and repression, a whole parallel, largely informal, economy has existed, and sometimes thrived. Businesses of different sizes and from various sectors have shown resilience and have nevertheless found different ways of operating, creating employment and offering much-needed products and services, even in times of war. While the majority of the pre-war Sudanese private sector was not independent, but rather depended on – and in some cases benefited from – the predatory kleptocracy, a small segment of business owners lacked political connections or decided not to leverage them. During the 2019-2021 transition these entrepreneurs doubled down their efforts, and showed perseverance and innovation to survive and cope. This segment of Sudan’s private sector, rather than the country’s security actors and affiliated businesses, will have to play a critical role in Sudan’s reconstruction after the war. The war that continues to rage in Sudan has a disastrous impact on the economy, and the financial resources required for reconstruction will be immense. To move towards the end of the war and to prepare for reconstruction, this report advocates a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, the predatory securitybusiness networks that have underpinned Sudan’s history of conflict and that sustain the present war must be systematically dismantled, so that they cannot fuel the current war or hijack any post-war transition. On the other hand, and simultaneously, the beleaguered private sector that did not benefit from support under al-Bashir’s rule, needs to be empowered, so that it can survive the war and play a role in the reconstruction. Dismantling Sudan’s security-business networks and empowering its productive private sector are complementary efforts. Together, these efforts can help to break the cycle of inequality and violence, and support Sudan’s transition towards democracy and civilian rule.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Democracy, Kleptocracy, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

36. Sudan’s Armed Militias and the Crisis of Civil Democratic Transition

Author:
Osama Abu Bakr
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In December 2018, Sudan experienced a popular uprising that successfully overthrew the regime of Omar al-Bashir, leading to a transitional period with power shared among military leaders. The transitional government, guided by the principles of freedom, peace, and justice that fueled the uprising, prioritized the resolution of internal conflicts and the achievement of peace. As part of these efforts, negotiations were initiated with armed militias mediated by the state of South Sudan in its capital, Juba. These negotiations culminated in the signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in 2020 between the government and the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), which encompassed seven armed militias operating in Darfur, the southern Blue Nile, and eastern Sudan.1 One of the most significant outcomes of the Juba Agreement was the inclusion of the SRF coalition as a third party in the transitional government. However, the integration of these militias into the political system faced challenges due to the behavior of some of their leaders. This hindered the progress of the civil democratic transition and deepened the divide between these militias and the civil political forces, with the former aligning more closely with anti-democratic elements. Eventually, these militias formed alliances within the army and orchestrated a military coup against the transitional government on 25 October 2021. This essay examines the role of armed militias in Sudan and how they use armed conflict to achieve their leaders’ stated objectives of power and wealth redistribution, as well as ending political and economic marginalization in certain regions of Sudan. These leaders employ a political discourse that links the cessation of war and the prospects of peace to a peaceful transfer of power, democratic transformation, and equitable distribution of power and resources. The central question posed by this paper is why these armed militias have positioned themselves against the Sudanese uprising and opposed the process of civil democratic transition and instead supported the military coup. The argument put forth in this paper is that the militias’ opposition to civil democratic transition stems from how they were formed, their organizational structures, the conduct of their leaders, and the intersections between public and private interests. Furthermore, the fragility of the state, its limited capacities, and the lack of legitimacy among its leaders are significant factors that underpin the militias’ approach to human rights issues and popular demands.
Topic:
Conflict, Militias, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

37. Back to barracks: Building democracy after the military coup in Sudan

Author:
Amgad Fareid Eltayeb
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The protest movement that toppled dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 promised a first in post-independence Sudan: democratic government. Although a historic opportunity for Sudan, real democracy threatened Sudanese political and military elites. Regimes formed through agreement between these elites constitute the one constant throughout Sudan’s post-independence period. The gap between the political elites and the protest movement helped the military coup in 2021 entrench their position. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread – and splits in the broader military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also precipitate Sudan being drawn into regional conflicts such as in Ethiopia and Chad. The international community and European states have failed to find a viable political pathway to end the coup because they are too focused on working with elites. They need to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. The EU and member states should support pro-democracy actors in Sudan and press for a new political pathway centred on them.
Topic:
Military Affairs, European Union, Democracy, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

38. Fragile States Index 2022 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Juliette Gallo-Carelli, Asa Cooper, and Dylan Souquet
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Elections, Fragile States, Political stability, Violence, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Sudan, Libya, Brazil, South America, North Africa, Haiti, Somalia, Mali, Guinea, Sahel, Global Focus, and Lake Chad Basin

39. Harnessing Informal Social Safety Nets for Resilience and Development

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick, Hassan Alattar Satti, Sarra Beheiry, and Elizabeth Stites
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
People turn to each other to get through difficult times, to celebrate life events, or simply to ease daily living. Humanitarian assistance usually provides support only when there are large-scale crises that affect whole populations. What do people do when humanitarian assistance is not provided, when only one or a few households are affected? And when humanitarian assistance is provided, how does it affect these systems of mutual support? Established systems of mutual support (informal social safety nets) evolve to organize reciprocal support and make that support more predictable. This report examines the nature of these mutual support systems in selected communities in North and South Darfur, Sudan. Through research conducted in these communities, we explore how a full menu of these social safety nets operate, the functions they serve, who benefits, and the obligations on community members. The informal social safety nets (SSNs) identified in this study varied somewhat from one community to another, but were largely the same across all communities, regardless of state or livelihood specialization. These SSNs operate as coherent webs that support social connections and norms, providing social and practical benefits as well as immediate emergency assistance when needed. SSNs depend on relationships and trust to function and are governed by shared norms. We have seen that SSNs can also restore broken trust and violated norms. The conflict in Darfur violated norms and disrupted many relationships, and therefore undermined the SSNs that depended on them. However, some SSNs have played important roles in reconciliation.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Resilience, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

40. Measuring the Resilience of Livelihoods in Darfur: The Income Streams Index

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick and Hassan Alattar Satti
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Resilience is the recognition that people are active agents in their own survival in the face of crises. Understanding the dynamics of how households in crisis-prone contexts plan for and respond to crises can help structure policy, development, and humanitarian activities to support their strategies, reducing the impact of crises, speeding recovery, and reducing the amount of humanitarian assistance required. A resilience indicator that is both quantitative and descriptive is needed to see how crises affect households and the livelihoods through which they meet their needs. Previously proposed measures either use proxies of outcomes or combinations of economic and wealth measurements, but none measure livelihoods themselves in real-time. This report uses an innovative real-time index, the Income Streams Index (ISI), to teach us how households in South, West, and North Darfur states in Sudan managed and adapted their livelihood activities in the face of multiple shocks of various types and sizes over a three-year period (2018 to 2021).
Topic:
Development, Resilience, Livelihoods, and Structuralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan