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141. Sudan: Regional Perspectives on the Prospect of Southern Independence

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
South Sudan is just eight months away from a self-determination referendum that will likely result in its secession from the North. Much remains to be done to implement the outstanding elements of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), and time is running out. The agreement's underlying aim of “making unity attractive” has failed, and most Southerners thus appear determined to choose independence. Neighbouring states are increasingly focused on the fragile circumstances in Sudan and the likelihood of a newly independent state in the region. Support from Sudan's neighbours for the referendum process and respect for its result will be crucial to ensuring peace and stability in the country and the region.
Topic:
Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

142. Rhetoric and Reality: The Failure to Resolve the Darfur Conflict

Author:
Julie Flint
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Seven years after large-scale militia attacks signalled a change in the long- running but generally low-level conflict in Darfur, an unprecedented array of international instruments has been deployed, often chaotically, to address the conflict, including peacekeepers, peacemakers, special envoys, mediators, sanctions, embargoes, and criminal prosecution. Yet peace remains as elusive as ever. In the three and a half years since the Darfur Peace Agreement was precipitously concluded in Abuja and, rejected by most Darfurians, left to wither, the paradigm of government–rebel talks has persisted, despite stalemate. Time is not on Darfur's side: the longer the conflict continues, the more actors become involved and the harder it is to resolve. With national elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan in 2011, the focus has moved away from Darfur. This Working Paper examines mediation efforts since Abuja and suggests why they have failed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

143. Symptoms and causes: Insecurity and underdevelopment in Eastern Equatoria

Author:
Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Eastern Equatoria state (EES) is one of the most volatile and conflict-prone states in Southern Sudan. An epicentre of the civil war ( 1983 – 2005 ), EES saw intense fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), as well numerous armed groups supported by both sides, leaving behind a legacy of landmines and unexploded ordnance, high numbers of weapons in civilian hands, and shattered social and community relations.
Topic:
Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

144. Uncertain Future: Armed Violence in Southern Sudan

Author:
Emile LeBrun and Claire McEvoy
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
For the four-year-old Government of Southern Sudan, 2009 was a punishing year. It struggled to manage multiple financial, governance, and security crises while fighting for implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Looming large were CPA-mandated legislative and executive elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on Southern self-determination in January 2011. For much of the year, tensions between the ruling National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army were high, with mutual recriminations over stalled aspects of the peace process. Over the same period Southern Sudan experienced a wave of intense armed violence that swept through rural areas. The violence was well organized, involved multiple tribal groups, and exhibited a brutality not reported in recent years. By the end of the year, some 2,500 Southerners had been killed and 350,000 displaced, with no real progress made to address the conflicts. This Working Paper focuses on the violence of 2009, including its root causes and connections to political and power rivalries at the local and national levels. It highlights current and probable future sources of insecurity as the country moves to national elections and the referendum on Southern determination and beyond.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
Sudan

145. Improving Natural Resource Management in Sudan: A Strategy for Effective State Building and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Paul J. Sullivan and Natalie Nasrallah
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Most experts view secession as the most likely outcome of the 2011 referendum on southern Sudan's potential secession. While this scenario may lead to some stability in the long run, effective secession immediately after the referendum may prove difficult. There is significant concern about preparedness for the referendum at the national, regional, and community levels. While postponing the vote may provide some breathing room, it heightens the risk of uncertainty and instability. Each plausible scenario—unity, secession, or a delay to the referendum—holds great uncertainty and risk regarding the potential impacts on oil, land, and water. The effects of each scenario could drastically change if the political and economic situations on the ground become more fragile. Management of petroleum resources is one of the most serious challenges facing Sudan's leaders. Petroleum is the largest foreign exchange earner and the biggest contributor to fiscal revenues for both north and south. Potential flash points include revenue transparency and equitable sharing formulas, as well as financing for exploration, production, new infrastructure development, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. There are insufficient data on, and attention to, use and potential of land and water. The management of both resources poses serious challenges that could derail statehood and precipitate violence. If oil, water, and land are not managed and developed properly and sustainably, both north and south Sudan could be facing a much more uncertain and violent future.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Sudan

146. The African Union in Darfur: Understanding the afro-arab response to the crisis

Author:
A. Sarjoh Bah
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Darfur, an arid region in western Sudan, has become synonymous with genocide, though many have been reluctant to describe the situation there in such terms, not least the African Union (AU). As the conflict between Government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) raged on for over two decades, long-standing tensions in Darfur were neglected. Meanwhile, negotiations led by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) culminated in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005, marking the end of Africa's longest running civil war; a conflict that had claimed the lives of approximately two million people and displaced millions more. However, the marginalisation of Darfur meant that the celebrations marking the end of the north-south conflict were short-lived, as news of mass murder involving government soldiers and their infamous militia allies, the Janjaweed, eclipsed the much celebrated deal. In Darfur, the Government and Janjaweed were pitted against the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the two groups that had taken up arms against the Islamist government in early 2003.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Arabia

147. Egypt and the Darfur conflict

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen and Jacob Høigilt
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The conflict in Sudan's western province of Darfur has revived even as the peace talks in Qatar between Sudan's government and the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) seem to have collapsed. Egypt has hitherto refrained from involvement in negotiations to end the conflict, a strategy that has contributed to further diminishing Cairo's already weakened status as a major player in regional politics and diplomacy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Arabia, and Egypt

148. Complex Operations in Weak and Failing States: The Sudan Rebel Perspective

Author:
William Reno
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The U.S. Government provides a comprehensive plan for civilian-military efforts in failing states aimed at showing citizens that their own governments can protect them. The object is to weaken any appeal that rebels might develop among these populations. In Sudan, which ranks third in a prominent index of failed states, this effort entails U.S. coordination of humanitarian aid, the provision of basic social services, and help to improve governmental function. This latest effort, part of the implementation of a 2005 peace agreement between a rebel army and Sudan's government, is part of an intensive 20-year official engagement with this country and its conflicts.
Topic:
Population
Political Geography:
United States and Sudan

149. Sudan Debt Dynamics: Status Quo, Southern Secession, Debt Division, and Oil–A Financial Framework for the Future

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The people of Southern Sudan are scheduled to vote in a referendum on whether to remain unified with the central government in Khartoum or break away to form a new, fully independent country. While the Khartoum government remains committed to a unified Sudan, all indications suggest that the Southern Sudanese will vote for secession by an overwhelming majority. Khartoum's willingness to accept the potential losses remains unclear. Many suspect that its ultimate actions will depend, at least in part, upon the resolution of key outstanding issues, such as oil and debt. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of Sudan's $35 billion in external debt obligations – both for a unified Sudan and a possible Southern secession. First, it examines Sudan's existing debt dynamics and the potential eligibility for traditional debt relief and multilateral debt relief initiatives. Second, it outlines potential options for dividing Sudan's external debt obligations in the event of a Southern secession. Third, it estimates external indebtedness ratios under each debt division scenario and the potential relevance of traditional debt relief treatments. Lastly, the paper provides an indicative roadmap for clearing Sudan's loan arrears of $30 billion and potentially securing comprehensive debt relief in the future.
Topic:
Civil War, Debt, Ethnic Conflict, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

150. A Political Storm Over the Nile

Author:
Adonia Ayebare
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Nile River basin is a vast area covering ten states, of which five are among the poorest in the world. Home to more than 350 million people, it is a troubled region that has been ravaged by armed conflicts, state failure, genocide, severe drought, and aid dependency. But it is also an area with great potential and geopolitical significance. In the past, the Nile River, with its origin in East and Central Africa, has been at the center of international affairs, most critically during the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956. Currently, the Nile is among the postreferendum issues being negotiated by parties to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Sudan: the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Topic:
Natural Resources and Water
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Arabia, and North Africa