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1. Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk

Author:
Dr Vincent Boulanin, Lora Saalman, Peter Topychkanov, Fei Su, and Peldán Carlsson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
This report aims to offer the reader a concrete understanding of how the adop­tion of artificial intelligence (AI) by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk and how related challenges could be addressed at the policy level. The analysis builds on extensive data collection on the AI-related technical and strategic developments of nuclear-armed states. It also builds on the authors’ conclusions from a series of regional workshops that SIPRI organized in Sweden (on Euro-Atlantic dynamics), China (on East Asian dynamics) and Sri Lanka (on South Asian dynamics), as well as a transregional workshop in New York. At these workshops, AI experts, scholars and practitioners who work on arms control, nuclear strategy and regional security had the opportunity to discuss why and how the adoption of AI capabilities by nuclear-armed states could have an impact on strategic stability and nuclear risk within or among regions.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Sri Lanka, and Sweden

2. China Global Security Tracker, No.6

Author:
Helena Legarda
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
China hits back after NATO calls it a security challenge, dormant Chinese hacking group resumes attacks, and more.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, North Atlantic, Beijing, Asia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka

3. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 11 Issue 06: June Issue

Author:
Abdul Basit, Iftekharul Bashar, Amresh Lavan Gunasingham, and Jade Hutchinson
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Current narratives on terrorism and violent extremism by governments, policymakers and law enforcement agencies are largely Islam-centric with an overt focus on the military defeat of terrorist groups. This issue firstly looks into the assumed link between a reduction or elimination of territorial control by terrorist groups and their so-called ‘defeat’. Using the Islamic State (IS) as a study, this issue explicates further on a group’s cross-border/global networks, linkages and ideological spread to assert that the victory-defeat framework against IS is flawed, as its threat has transformed into a network of smaller cells and geographically dispersed cells. Secondly, this issue looks at the rising threat of far-right extremism and terrorism; a phenomenon which has been under-explored, given the Islam-centric nature of terrorism in recent decades. For instance, it has been reported that 71 percent of fatalities linked to terrorism between 2008 and 2017 in the United States were committed by far-right extremists and white supremacists. This issue specifically examines the recent Christchurch terrorist attack in New Zealand by a far-right extremist and possible implications for the Asia Pacific region. In the first article, Abdul Basit discusses the narrative of defeat against IS after US forces eliminated its last physical stronghold in Syria. It is argued that while IS territory shrank considerably, the group is still active with its ideological appeal attracting smaller networks and cells globally. The author states that IS has managed to remain relevant and active despite losing its physical sanctuaries due to three reasons: (i) revising the ideological narrative; (ii) organisational restructuring; and (iii) forming new networks. This is likely to have far-reaching implications on the global threat landscape that will witness a rise in low-end urban terrorism, more competition from rival groups and reactionary violence from right-wing extremists. Next, Amresh Gunasingham studies the recent attacks in Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday that heightened post-war ethnic tensions and brought forth civil war traumas amidst an ongoing political crisis. The article examines the possibility of a communication gap among security agencies that prevented early detection of one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in the country’s history. It further details the motivations for the attack as: (i) the Wahhabi factor; (ii) anti-Muslim violence furthering radicalization; and (iii) the possible links to IS. Possible implications and responses to the attack include a rise in anti-Muslim sentiments and violence with tightened security measures imposed by the state. In order to ensure long-term stability, the state needs measures to promote ethnic and religious harmony with strong counter-terrorism legislation. Iftekharul Bashar details the threat landscape in Western Myanmar, focusing on (i) Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an ethno-nationalist group and (ii) IS and Al-Qaeda (AQ), both Islamist terrorist groups. The article argues that the threat brought on by ethnic violence and Islamist terrorism is facilitated by grievances of the local Rohingya Muslims and motivations for revenge and active presence of IS and AQ networks in the South and Southeast Asia region. The exploitation of the local refugee crisis by IS and AQ coupled with ARSA’s resilience requires comprehensive responses that centre on communal harmony in addition to hard-power measures. Lastly, Jade Hutchinson discusses the far-right terrorist threat, specifically in light of the Christchurch shooting at two mosques in New Zealand in March 2019 where 51 people were killed. The article focuses on the attack, the attacker, his links to other far-right extremist groups and the key role the Internet and social media played in facilitating the attack. This incident in New Zealand signals the possibility of further copycat attacks in Australia and other countries, further recruitment towards far-right extremism online and the need to devise policies to effectively counter far-right extremism in the online space.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Refugees, Islamic State, Political stability, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, Sri Lanka, Syria, New Zealand, Myanmar, and United States of America

4. Rise of Extremism and Growing Threats of Transnational Terrorism

Author:
Murad Ali and Reema Murad
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Extremism, though not a new phenomenon, has undergone complete metamorphosis in the South Asian context. While in Sri Lanka, the discriminatory policy of ruling Sinhalese towards Tamil minority was reason of latter’s taking up arms to assert their identity, India is inflicting war on the assertive Kashmiris who are struggling for the recognition of their right of self-determination. At the same time, the ultra-right government of the BJP is encouraging religious extremism. With his baggage of Gujarat pogrom, Prime Minister Modi is treading a dangerous path of fanning Hindu nationalism. Afghanistan was subjected to the communist elements under the Babrak Karmal regime which had the backing of the Soviet Union and the traditional Afghan society was not receptive to the foreign ideology. People stood up against the direct Soviet intervention which they took as heretic. They were supported in their armed struggle by the US and Pakistan. As Soviets withdrew ignominiously from Afghanistan, the warlords went into civil war to assert themselves which created a vacuum filled by the Taliban. The US attacked Afghanistan to remove Taliban who were thought to have be harbouring the perpetrators of September 11, 2001 attack. The Kabul government however couldn’t win the confidence of the people and Taliban resurgence has cost the country dearly with ramifications for Pakistan. The element of extremism and violence was introduced in Pakistan was in Afghanistan after the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 and got different and colossal dimensions post September 11, 2001 tragedy. In Pakistan, the Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan were formed after the Lal Masjid operation. There is hardly any parallel in history to match the devastating terrorist rampages costing huge loss of life and property. Unfortunately, the neighbouring India is fishing in the troubled waters to achieve some petty gains. While Afghanistan has its own circumstances and hence its responses to end the imbroglio, Pakistan has a long way to go end the menace of extremism as well as terrorism, of course in conjunction with Afghanistan, without which peace cannot return to the region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Sri Lanka

5. What the Women Say: Elusive Peace, Pervasive Violence: Sri Lankan Women’s Struggle for Security and Justice

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
Four years ago in May 2009, the Sri Lankan military routed the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE), destroyed its leadership and secured control of Tamil dominated areas in the country’s north. Sri Lanka is lauded as the first country to eradicate terrorism on its own soil, but the 2009 victory came at significant human cost. An estimated 300,000 people were displaced. According to the U.N., some 40,000 civilians were killed in the first five months of 2009. This brief focuses on women in Sri Lanka’s northern provinces in the aftermath of war. Drawing on a survey conducted in ten war-torn districts and discussions with over 450 women, it reflects on women’s legal gains and their activism for peace and human rights while also highlighting the critical security, economic and social risks that many women face.4 The recommendations we offer to the Sri Lankan government and the international community reflect the survey findings and priorities outlined in the 2012 Sri Lankan Women’s Agenda on Peace, Security and Development.
Topic:
Security, Women, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

6. Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil leaders or otherwise address legitimate Tamil and Muslim grievances is increasing ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for lasting peace. The administration, led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of Mahinda Rajapaksa, has refused to honour agreements with the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), broke n promises to world leaders and not implemented constitutional provisions for minimal devolution of power to Tamil-speaking areas of the north and east. Militarisation and discriminatory economic development in Tamil and Muslim areas are breeding anger and increasing pressure on moderate Tamil leaders. Tamil political parties need to remain patient and keep to their moderate course, while reaching out more directly to Muslims, Upcountry Tamils and Sinhalese. International actors should press the government more effectively for speedy establishment of an elected provincial council and full restoration of civilian government in the north, while insisting that it commence serious negotiations with elected Tamil representatives from the north and east.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

7. Sri Lanka: Women's Insecurity in the North and East

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Women in Sri Lanka's predominantly Tamil-speaking north and east are facing a desperate lack of security in the aftermath of the long civil war. Today many still live in fear of violence from various sources. Those who fall victim to it have little means of redress. Women's economic security is precarious, and their physical mobility is limited. The heavily militarised and centralised control of the north and east – with almost exclusively male, Sinhalese security forces – raises particular problems for women there in terms of their safety, sense of security and ability to access assistance. They have little control over their lives and no reliable institutions to turn to. The government has mostly dismissed women's security issues and exacerbated fears, especially in the north and east. The international community has failed to appreciate and respond effectively to the challenges faced by women and girls in the former war zone. A concerted and immediate effort to empower and protect them is needed.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

8. Peace as governance? Critical challenges to power-sharing peace deals

Author:
Chandra Lekha Sriram
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Power-sharing may involve not only political power-sharing, but shared governance over economic resources or the security sector, and in some cases territorial autonomy arrangements. There are at least five critical challenges to negotiating a peace agreement involving power-sharing: Mistrust may outweigh the influence of the power- sharing incentives offered. The third-party guarantee needed to overcome mistrust is not available. The incentives that are offered may not be the right ones. If there are no measures to address the original causes of conflict, incentives may not be enough. Incentives cannot induce so-called spoilers to participate in a peace process. There are far more potential challenges to implementing power-sharing agreements in practice: Agreements may be violated because incentives were insufficient or can be obtained more easily outside the agreement. Agreement fails because a group was less interested in, or unable to reap the benefits of, specific incentives. Old patterns of mistrust and cheating are imported into governance processes and state institutions. Instead of creating a grand coalition, power-sharing may create incentives for extremism and ethnic or hardliner outbidding. Incentives such as territorial autonomy may encourage secessionist tendencies. Parties may have committed to agreement out of short-term pragmatism rather than long term interest or policy. Exclusion of groups from benefits may encourage new grievances and even conflicts. Competition may turn violent amongst former allies. Violent regions or the interference of neighbouring states may undermine agreements.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Sudan and Sri Lanka

9. Contemporary Indian Views of Europe

Author:
Karine Lisbonne-de Vergeron
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
India was one of the first countries to establish a diplomatic relationship with the European Union (EU), with a visit of several European-based Indian diplomats to the then EEC in 1961. However, the first summit between India and the EU – held in Lisbon in June 2000 – marks the true start of serious bilateral relations. Until then, exchanges had been primarily defined by the accord signed in 1994, which barely took matters beyond general trade points. Lisbon saw the issuance of a Joint Declaration and the signature of the EU–India Civil Aviation Cooperation Agreement, extended until the end of 2006. This wider agenda has expanded over the past five years. Particular progress was made on mutual recognition of regulations at the Hague Summit on 8 November 2004, culminating in the approval of a plan mapping out the so-called 'strategic partnership' in the course of the summit under the British presidency, in Delhi, on 7 September 2005. This consisted of a political declaration and a joint action strategy, advocating reinforced collaboration in a number of fields, including a 'dialogue on democracy', a commitment to 'multilateralism', security issues, cultural exchanges, enhanced cooperation in education within the framework of the Erasmus Mundus programme for higher education, an 'economic policy dialogue', and the encouragement of business-to-business relations. The EU further acknowledged India's role since 2004 in addressing crisis situations in its neighbourhood, especially in Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Topic:
Security and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka

10. Unilateral Separation as Roadmap Insurance

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The record of formal efforts to negotiate peace in protracted ethno-national conflicts (Balkans, N. Ireland, Sri Lanka, etc.) is not encouraging. Israel needs a serious insurance policy, in the form of unilateral separation, to minimize vulnerability to another and potentially more deadly terror campaign, should the "roadmap" fail. The construction of a separation barrier is supported by over 70 percent of the Israeli public, representing a broad consensus from across the political spectrum that favors a physical barrier blocking access to Israeli cities in order to prevent a resumption of the Palestinian terror campaign of the past three years. Political separation will also promote a two-state solution, allowing Israel to remain a culturally Jewish and democratic society while fostering Palestinian sovereignty. Key policy issues concern the pace of construction and the route to be taken for the remaining sections. While options range from a minimalist 300 km line to a 600 km alternative that would include most Israeli settlements, a pragmatic middle route including settlement blocs like Ariel and Gush Etzion may provide the optimum mix under present circumstances. If the Palestinian security framework proves its capabilities in preventing terror, and political negotiations on borders progress, the barrier can be relocated.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Sri Lanka, Palestine, Arabia, Balkans, and Ireland