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151. Al Qaeda's Challenge

Author:
William McCants
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On 9/11, the global jihadist movement burst into the world's consciousness, but a decade later, thanks in part to the Arab Spring and the killing of Osama bin Laden, it is in crisis. With Western-backed dictators falling, al Qaeda might seem closer than ever to its goal of building Islamic states. But the revolutions have empowered the group's chief rivals instead: Islamist parliamentarians, who are willing to use ballots, not bombs.
Topic:
Cold War and Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Soviet Union, Arabia, and Egypt

152. The Russian social contract and regime legitimacy

Author:
Aleksei Makarkin
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The social contract in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia has concerned not classical political rights but socio-economic issues. Loyalty is accorded to the powersthat-be partly from fear of repression, but also in return for new opportunities of advancement—whether resulting from social upheaval or from educational expansion—and for modest improvements in living standards. The Soviet era Abstracts ended when such benefits could no longer be delivered, on account of lower oil prices, arms-race burdens and lagging productivity and innovation. After the turmoil of the 1990s, the contract was re-established under Putin in the early 2000s. Public opinion accepts relatively authoritarian rule if economic stability appears guaranteed in return. Moreover, world events from 2008 onwards have dampened economic expectations. Nonetheless, the sustainability of the present contract is doubtful, with economic modernization likely to prove elusive in the absence of effective democratic institutions.
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

153. The Dying Bear

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
December marks the 20th anniversary of the end of the Soviet dictatorship and the beginning of Russia's postcommunist transition. For Russians, the intervening years have been full of elation and promise but also unexpected trouble and disappointment. Perhaps of all the painful developments in Russian society since the Soviet collapse, the most surprising -- and dismaying -- is the country's demographic decline. Over the past two decades, Russia has been caught in the grip of a devastating and highly anomalous peacetime population crisis. The country's population has been shrinking, its mortality levels are nothing short of catastrophic, and its human resources appear to be dangerously eroding. Indeed, the troubles caused by Russia's population trends -- in health, education, family formation, and other spheres -- represent a previously unprecedented phenomenon for an urbanized, literate society not at war. Such demographic problems are far outside the norm for both developed and less developed countries today; what is more, their causes are not entirely understood. There is also little evidence that Russia's political leadership has been able to enact policies that have any long-term hope of correcting this slide. This peacetime population crisis threatens Russia's economic outlook, its ambitions to modernize and develop, and quite possibly its security. In other words, Russia's demographic travails have terrible and outsized implications, both for those inside the country's borders and for those beyond. The humanitarian toll has already been immense, and the continuing economic cost threatens to be huge; no less important, Russia's demographic decline portends ominously for the external behavior of the Kremlin, which will have to confront a far less favorable power balance than it had been banking on.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
Russia and Soviet Union

154. Central Asia in Geopolitics: The American Vector (1991-2008)

Author:
S. Nikolaev
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
Central Asia has a rich history. At one time, it boasted the Great Silk Road, a major trade route between Europe and China. It was also an arena where Chinese, Mongolian, Persian, Turkish, and Arabian military commanders led their armies in brutal battles, prosperous towns were built and destroyed, and huge empires appeared and disappeared. So researchers have examined this region in the most diverse geographical configurations.
Political Geography:
China, America, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, Mongolia, and Soviet Union

155. Central Asia and Afghanistan in Russia's Strategy

Author:
Alexander Lukin
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
RUSSIA REMAINS A LARGE COUNTRY to be reckoned with, even though the Soviet Union's disintegration diminished its international weight. With the larger part of the soviet Union's western regions becoming independent states, Russia's eastern regions and the eastern vector of its foreign policies acquired much more importance.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

156. The Arab Spring: Challenges, Obstacles and Dilemmas

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
On the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, long-standing authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen have fallen, Libya is in the fi nal stages of a civil war that toppled the forty-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi , and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria may be tottering on the brink of implosion. Through 2011, demonstrations in Bahrain and Iran have been met with force, while Morocco, Jordan, Djibouti, Iraq, Oman, and Algeria have all reported protests. The Arab Spring has not been confi ned to the Middle East and North Africa; rather, its effects have gone global, with analysts drawing attention to its ripples, ramifi cations, and the potential of "revolutionary contagion" through the greater Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, Russia and Eurasia, as well as China and East and South East Asia. Although there is broad agreement among experts and commentators who have studied the Arab Spring itself as to the scale and importance of revolutionary change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, its causes are contested, and there is little consensus as to its likely consequences and strategic effects. As Prince Hassan of Jordan noted, "The outcome of this tectonic realignment is not just unpredictable, but unknowable.
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Soviet Union, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

157. After 1989: Redefining "Democracy"

Author:
Ivan Krastev
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Ivan Krastev is a Bulgarian political scientist and a leading scholar on authoritarianism. In a conversation with the Journal's Rebecca Chao, Mr. Krastev challenged the assumptions that underpin popular theories of authoritarianism and discussed how the very elements that undermined these regimes in 1989, precipitating the collapse of the Soviet Union, contribute to their durability today.
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

158. The Future of NATO

Author:
Whitney Shepardson
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) did not exist today, the United States would not seek to create it. In 1949, it made sense in the face of a potential Soviet invasion to forge a bond in the North Atlantic area among the United States, Canada, and the west European states. Today, if the United States were starting from scratch in a world of transnational threats, the debate would be over whether to follow liberal and neoconservative calls for an alliance of democracies without regard to geography or to develop a great power concert envisioned by the realists to uphold the current order.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Organization, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Canada, and Soviet Union

159. Puzzles of State Transformation: The Case of Armenia and Georgia

Author:
Nicole Gallina
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
The problems of weak state structures, including state territoriality, in the South Caucasus has highly influenced political developments and the building of a democratic state. This paper explains the difficulty of recovering statehood in the cases of Armenia and Georgia, both in the context of post–Soviet state transformation and post–conflict state-rebuilding. It argues that recovering statehood in the South Caucasus meant at once maintaining the status quo within the state structures and managing the highly volatile political and ethnic relations (culminating in armed conflict). In the cases of conflict, elite management impeded conflict solution. In this context, this paper finds that elite power slowed the construction of a democratic and effective state. In particular, elite fragmentation has led to serious impediments for state development and the consolidation of territoriality. In sum, elite-led state development and conflict management hindered the successful consolidation of state territoriality.
Political Geography:
Soviet Union, Armenia, Georgia, and South Caucasus

160. Norms, Interests, and Power in Japanese Foreign Policy

Author:
Hiro Katsumata
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
By examining the role of norms in Japanese foreign policy in a wide range of issue areas, this edited volume makes contributions that are both empirical and theoretical. On the empirical side, this volume contains nine case study chapters, each of which can be read individually for a thorough understanding of Japanese foreign policy in the given issue area. The first four case study chapters focus on security issues: the emergence of the norm of antimilitarism, the adoption of the international anti-landmine norm, the consolidation of the norm associated with the 'four islands return' claim in the territorial disputes with the Soviet Union / Russia, and the pursuit of the collective defense norm concerning the dispatch of the Self Defense Forces overseas. The next three chapters concentrate on economic issues: the limited influence of humanitarian norms on official development assistance (ODA) policies, the prioritization of the domestic ODA norm of reciprocity or mutual benefits over the international norm of aid conditionality, and the compliance with the international norm concerning the management of the Latin American debt crisis. The remaining two chapters focus on environ- mental issues: the rejection of the anti-whaling norm, and the influence of the domestic norm which calls for international leadership in dealing with non-military challenges such as global warming.
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, America, and Soviet Union