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1. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule

Author:
Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
Topic:
Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

2. A Silent Sangha? Buddhist Monks in Post-coup Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sangha, Myanmar’s Buddhist monastic community, has largely stayed out of politics since the 2021 coup. As youth take the vanguard of resistance, a long-term shift in the country’s civic life – and a conservative backlash – could be in the offing. The issue bears close watching.
Topic:
Religion, Coup, and Buddhism
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

3. ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Military Coup: From Non-Intervention to Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Ali Muhammad and Ahmad Sahide
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article examines how ASEAN has reacted to the military coup in Myanmar. The February 1, 2021 coup was appalling because Myanmar was progressing toward democracy especially since Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the 2015 general election. This article shows that although ASEAN tries to adopt ‘constructive engagement’ towards Myanmar, its approaches remain ineffective because it basically still maintains the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of its member states. ASEAN must recognize that regional stability depends on respect for democracy, human rights, and rule of law within each member states. This article argues that ASEAN needs to transform its ineffective approaches toward more active response by gradually internalizing the new concept of ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P) and actively put pressures on the military to restore democracy in the country.
Topic:
Coup, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), ASEAN, Non-Intervention, and Military
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

4. Myanmar - China´s west coast dream

Author:
John Nielsen
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Myanmar is blessed as well as cursed by its geography. Sandwiched between Asia’s heavyweights, China and India, it is potentially in a favorable position for trade and economic relations with both countries. However, trade and economic relations are secondary to China’s geopolitical and security interests in Myanmar. China´s main objective in Myanmar is to gain access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and gain control over a dual-use deep-sea port in Kyauk Phyu on Myanmar´s west coast. Another priority for China involves managing the stability of the two countries´ 2,000 km shared border. The porous border region has for decades played host to armed conflicts and is also the center of a billion- dollar drugs production and trafficking network. China regards Myanmar as forming part of its neighborhood, an extension of its national interests, and is extremely sensitive to any western engagement along its borders.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Indian Ocean

5. One Year after the Myanmar Coup

Author:
Esther Ze Bamvo, James C. Scott, David Thang Moe, and Lien-Hang T. Nguyen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Myanmar has been a military country since 1962, but the recent military coup deserves international attention. Since the junta seized power by removing the democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, citizens from all walks of life have risen up in strong resistance to the coup. Religion and ethnicity have played a dividing and exclusionary role in Burmese politics, resulting most tragically in the persecution of the Rohingya. However, the urgent need for solidarity of an anti-coup movement led by youth from “Generation Z” has brought together protesters from different religions and ethnicities. Urban civilians, mostly from ethnic majorities, and ethnic minorities from small towns and the most remote hill villages have bridged their religious and ethnic divides to resist the coup for the common goal of federal democracy. Within one year, military junta has killed almost 1,500, detained almost 12,000, and has displaced millions of civilians. Despite the risks, civilians continue to resist the new order through various everyday and creative forms of movement. This event, marking the anniversary of the coup, will recognize Myanmar’s democratic movement, remember fallen heroes, and reflect on the origins and ongoing movements of interreligious and interethnic resistance to the coup. Three panelists, including a person who co-led the first largest anti-coup protest movement on the frontline, will share their expertise on the origins, stories, strategies, and challenges of resistance to the coup. They will also suggest ways that the international community can support Myanmar’s ongoing democratic movement. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the New York Southeast Asia Network (NYSEAN).
Topic:
Democracy, Protests, Coup, Resistance, and Military
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

6. Chinese Mining Companies and Local Mobilization in Myanmar

Author:
Xue Gong
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the 2010s, China has invested enormous amounts of capital in major infrastructure construction projects in developing countries around the world, including in Southeast Asia. Many argue that China aims to export its development model to the world, but Chinese actors have also at times sought to address project concerns at least to some degree. The question is this: how are Chinese business actors adapting to the local contexts, legal and regulatory requirements, technical standards, and community norms in the places where they operate? To answer that question, it is important to focus on the interactive dynamics between Chinese players and local civic actors (such as local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), faith-based organizations, community groups, government-owned NGOs, activists, associations, and other networks in exile) in Myanmar that can collectively be termed local societal actors. By tracing Chinese local engagement activities involving a major Chinese-backed resource-extraction project, the Letpadaung copper mine, this paper argues that the past few decades of China’s deep embeddedness and interests in Myanmar’s political economy forced Chinese businesses to adapt to Myanmarese societal demands, by way of a local community-based approach. Beijing knows that projects supported by Myanmar’s government today might not have the same traction tomorrow. Therefore, when pressure has built, Chinese actors have paid greater heed to demands from local residents in projects’ host countries, even at times integrating these demands to adjust existing Chinese strategies, choices, and behaviors. That said, these concessions have not caused these disputes to entirely disappear, and the staying power of these Chinese adaptations is open to question, particularly amid the political upheaval Myanmar has weathered since the 2021 coup. A key variable in these changes is the power of the local societal actors: when they are strong and supported by local institutions, Chinese business actors often are more adaptive to local demands and take greater steps, including with local partners, to win support from local societal actors. Because the interactions between local institutions and local societal actors vary by place and time, Chinese responses to local actors and practices also do vary in different periods. In sum, it is clear that Chinese actors are making progress at the local level by showing their adaptability not just in terms of the Letpadaung copper mine case but also on other shared development projects in Myanmar. Nonetheless, Chinese actors’ approach to local community engagement is subject to the local context and specifically to what extent local institutions have the capacity and will to support local societal demands.
Topic:
Civil Society, Infrastructure, Institutions, Coup, and Mining
Political Geography:
China, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

7. Risk of Mass Atrocities against the Rohingya Post-coup

Author:
Kyra Fox
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Rohingya—who experienced genocide prior to Burma’s 2021 military coup—are now at heightened risk of genocide and mass atrocities by the Burmese military, known as the Tatmadaw, and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization in Rakhine State. Other vulnerable groups include the broader Muslim community and ethnic and religious minorities in areas where ethnic armed organizations and/or People’s Defense Forces are fighting the Tatmadaw. To prevent mass atrocities, the Tatmadaw should cease attacks on civilians and cede power so Burma can move toward a more diverse, representative, and credible democracy. The US and other governments should conduct a full mass atrocity risk assessment, provide rapid and flexible funding to civil society organizations responding to the crisis, and constrain and condemn the Tatmadaw.
Topic:
Genocide, Coup, Atrocities, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

8. Myanmar’s Spring Revolution

Author:
Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The Myanmar military’s decision to seize power on 1 February 2021 triggered a wave of resistance across the country. By the end of June, over 4,700 anti-coup demonstration events were reported in Myanmar.1 The military has responded with a campaign of violence and mass arrests. Despite the crackdown, anti-coup activists have continued to demonstrate, and some have armed themselves in self-defense. The military coup has also re-ignited conflicts in areas of the borderlands that had until recently been on the wane. As calls for international action increase, diaspora communities have organized and joined demonstrations across the globe in solidarity with those inside the country. This report examines the political disorder in Myanmar brought about by the military junta and analyzes the resistance — both armed and unarmed — to the coup.
Topic:
Protests, Violence, Coup, and Repression
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

9. Myanmar Crisis Needs Concerted Democracy Support from Asian Middle Powers

Author:
Hun Joon Kim
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s fight for democracy endures amid violent crackdowns inflicted by the military government. While the number of fatalities and casualties, especially those among the youth and children participating in the nationwide civil disobedience movement (CDM) continues to increase, democracies in the region have become increasingly alert towards the situation in Myanmar. Hun Joon Kim, professor at Korea University, and Sook Jong Lee, professor at Sungkyunkwan University and senior fellow at the East Asia Institute, state that while middle power democracies of India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea have made significant moves against the military coup in support of Myanmar’s path towards democracy, they should coordinate among themselves to pursue more substantial ways of engagement. Civil societies of Asian middle power democracies have shown moral and financial support to the CDM in Myanmar and have manifested unusually high levels of empathy and support for the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. To sustain such support and facilitate change towards democratic transition remains a challenge – one that requires unequivocal support from Asian middle power democracies.
Topic:
Democracy, Protests, Crisis Management, and Coup
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

10. Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s crisis: And the implications for Australia

Author:
Huong Le Thu, David Engel, and Hillary Mansour
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
The rapidly unfolding Myanmar crisis is presenting Southeast Asia with one of its most severe security and stability threats in the past three decades. While the region is certainly familiar with military coups and violent changes of government, the ongoing crisis in Myanmar carries risks far more acute than previous coups d’etat in the region. One of them is the risk to the sustained modus operandi of the region’s key institution—the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The outcome of ASEAN’s involvement in the Myanmar crisis is consequential not only for the Myanmar people, but also for the association’s ability to credibly lead efforts to preserve peace and security in the region into the future. In this report, we assess the security situation in Myanmar, ASEAN’s collective response and the individual roles of key ASEAN member states in the mediating process. We focus on the effect that the Myanmar crisis has on the overall ASEAN political and security situation, and highlight Indonesia’s leadership, and limitations, in the process. We also detail the legal instruments and responsibility of ASEAN—in the form of the ASEAN Charter—to uphold the rule of law. The report concludes with some policy implications for the wider region, particularly Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, National Security, Coup, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Australia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar