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482. Trade Liberalization and Spatial Inequality: A Methodological Innovation in Vietnamese Perspective
- Author:
- Henning Tarp Jensen and Finn Tarp
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In this paper we calibrate two static computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with respectively 16 and 5,999 representative households. Aggregated and disaggregated household categories are consistently embedded in a 2000 social accounting matrix for Vietnam, mapping on a one-to-one basis to each other. Distinct differences in poverty assessments emerge when the impact of trade liberalization is analyzed in the two models. This highlights the importance of modeling micro household behavior and related income and expenditure distributions endogenously within a static CGE model framework. Our simulations indicate that poverty will rise following a revenue-neutral lowering of trade taxes. This is interpreted as a worst case scenario, which suggests that government should be proactive in combining trade liberalization measures with a propoor fiscal response to avoid increasing poverty in the short to medium term.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia
483. Changes in Spatial Income Inequality in the Philippines: An Exploratory Analysis
- Author:
- Arsenio M. Balisacan and Nobuhiko Fuwa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to establish some basic facts about income inequality in the Philippines, with a special focus on the importance of spatial income inequality. Despite major fluctuations in macroeconomic performances, income inequality remained relatively stable during the years 1985-2000. Spatial inequality accounts for a sizable but not overwhelming portion of the national-level income inequality, and the relative importance of spatial inequality was declining over time. We also find that mean income levels across provinces were converging at a much faster rate than those observed in currently developed countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Southeast Asia
484. China and Southeast Asia: The Difference of a Decade
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino and Juo-yu Lin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Over a span of several years, China's relations with the nations of Southeast Asia have shifted in quiet increments. The accumulated effect, however, has been profound. A concerted diplomatic effort to woo countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which now includes all countries in the region excepting East Timor, has reaped multiple benefits for Beijing. It is beginning to alter the political balance in the region as alignments with extra-regional powers are shifting, however subtly. In some aspects, the change is more dramatic. Economic relations have expanded rapidly; for example, trade between China and Southeast Asia is seventeen times larger today than it was twenty-five years ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Beijing, Asia, and Southeast Asia
485. Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002-03
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino and Richard Bush
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This is the third edition of the Northeast Asian Survey, sponsored by the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies of the Brookings Institution. Following this review of developments in the region during 2002, the bulk of the volume is composed of essays that provide mid-term perspectives on internal dynamics in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, on the crisis on the Korean peninsula, and on relations between China and Taiwan and on China and Southeast Asia. All the authors have been affiliated with the Brookings Institution during the 2002-03 year. Most were CNAPS Visiting Fellows or Brookings Federal Executive Fellows.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, and Northeast Asia
486. All the Players at the Table: A Multilateral Solution to the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
- Author:
- Doug Bandow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- There is no easy answer to the prospect of a nuclear Democratic People's Republic of Korea. A preemptive war against Pyongyang, even if the strikes were initially directed only at the North's nuclear facilities, would create an unacceptable risk of full-scale war on the peninsula. Sanctions would create their own set of risks. Current punitive economic measures have increased the suffering of millions of North Koreans but have not succeeded in altering President Kim Jong-il's behavior. Further sanctions would certainly not work without the support of the surrounding countries.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Korea, and Southeast Asia
487. Burma: A Time for Change
- Author:
- Mathea Falco
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On May 30, 2003, the Burmese military regime orchestrated violent attacks by pro-government militia on Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and her supporters as they traveled outside Mandalay. At least four of her bodyguards were killed as well as a significant number of others. She has been held in custody since then. Following the attacks, the regime arrested more than 100 democracy activists, imprisoned at least a dozen, shut down NLD offices across the country, and closed schools and universities. This is the bloodiest confrontation between Burma's military rulers and democracy supporters since 1988, when the government suppressed a popular uprising against the regime and thousands were killed.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Burma and Southeast Asia
488. Final Evaluation: The OTI Program In East Timor
- Author:
- Jeffrey Clark, Lia Juliani, and Ann von Briesen Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Agency for International Development
- Abstract:
- The report which follows constitutes the final evaluation of the three year Office of Transition Initiatives operation in East Timor. It stems from an independent examination and analysis of OTI's program in that country, as it emerged from the violence of September 1999 and faced the multiple challenges inherent in constructing a new government and in defining a new nation. The evaluation, conducted in October and November of 2002, was undertaken through a big picture approach meant to capture the entirety of OTI's experience in East Timor. The evaluators concentrated on two fundamental questions: Is there evidence that OTI's interventions had impact? Did the interventions deliver on the stated objectives?
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
489. Examining the Role of Foreign Assistance in Security Sector Reforms: The Indonesian Case
- Author:
- Eduardo Lachica
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Indonesia and the donor community are agreed that security sector reforms are needed to restore investor confidence and sustain the pace of economic recovery. However, donor-assisted programmes have had only a limited success so far and the army's post-Suharto reforms appeared to have ground to a halt. This paper offers some suggestions on how to restore the momentum for reform in the light of donor limitations, the military's historical circumstances and the current mood of intense nationalism. Donors should initiate a quiet Track II (non-official) dialogue with the military, the police, the civilian authorities and civil society to scope out a doable programme of cooperation. The issue of civilian supremacy should be dealt with pragmatically, allowing for a process of negotiation to find an effective working relationship between civilian and military authorities. The dialogue should frame the reform process as a burden for the entire society, reminding civilian leaders that they too have a responsibility to improve their performance and demonstrate their ability to oversee military affairs capably and fairly. Since U.S. assistance to the Indonesian military is likely to remain constrained, the paper proposes a "military donors club" that can expand the donor base and work informally with the World Bank-led Consultative Group on Indonesia. The dialogue should deal creatively and patiently with two of the most vexing issues relating to the army — restructuring its network of territorial commands and phasing out its controversial tradition of self-financing. This could be a difficult learning process for both sides of the civilian-military divide that could last a decade or more.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia
490. Political Parties and Political Engineering in the Asia Pacific Region
- Author:
- Benjamin Reilly
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Democracies need both strength and flexibility—enough structure to transform a kaleidoscope of public opinion into coherent debate and effective policy, but enough openness to protect individual rights. Finding this balance is a particular challenge in ethnically diverse emerging democracies. Political parties usually serve a country best when they are limited in number, strong, and broad-based. Their evolution was once left mainly to chance; today, governments often seek to influence the process. Among those attempting reforms are Paupa New Guinea, home to hundreds of languages; Indonesia, with its separatist movements; the Philippines, experimenting with ways to balance party interests with other social concerns; and Thailand, whose once fragmented political scene seems headed toward domination by one party. Their strategies for encouraging stable party systems range from minimum-vote thresholds to efforts to stiffen internal party discipline. Much can be learned from these Asia Pacific efforts at political engineering—including the need for a cautious approach that minimizes unforeseen consequences and costs.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia