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451. Engaging Putin's Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for the West

Author:
Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Southeast Asia

452. After London: Reassessing Africa's Role in the War on Terror

Author:
Kurt Shillinger
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Whether our current war is “on terrorism” or “against violent extremism,” it is unquestionably global. While centered in the greater Middle East, the fighting occurs from North America to Southeast Asia. One of the key theaters in this struggle is Africa—not just the Arab lands of North Africa, but much of the rest of the continent. No U.S. strategy for this war that fails to reckon with Africa's role can be truly successful. The Bush administration and its allies are coming to realize this but have yet to address the full implications of the problem.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, North America, and Southeast Asia

453. CERI: The Thaksin System: A Halt to Democratization or Democracy the Thai Way?

Author:
Nicolas Revise
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailands Prime Minister, is a man of superlatives: the billionaire telecommunications tycoon is the only elected Thai head of government to have managed to get through an entire legislative term before being triumphantly reelected to a second mandate. His party, Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais), rules with an overwhelming majority. Having rose to power in the wake of the 1997 Asian crisis and the promulgation of Thailands democratic Constitution the same year, Thaksin exemplifies the countrys recent history: he is heir to the authoritarian military regimes of the 1960-1970 and the product of a political and economic liberalization that brought businessmen transformed into professional politicians to power. But whether the Thaksin system a blend of authoritarianism and liberalism has put the brakes on twenty-five years of political democratization or if he embodies a Thai way to democracy, the Prime Minister cannot rule to please himself: he is faced with a dynamic, complex and organized civil society that has already proven in at least three different instances its striking talent for political mobilization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

454. CERI: Burma: The army closes off political options

Author:
Renaud Egreteau
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The Burmese junta that came to power in 1962, and reaffirmed its domination by a second military coup d'état in September of 1988, has steadily increased its control over the nation's institutions and over the running of the country (renamed Myanmar in 1989). In August of 2003, the decision taken by General Khin Nyunt, Prime Minister and head of military intelligence, to propose "a road map to democracy" suggested that a gradual "transition to democracy", closely supervised by the military regime, was possible. But the ousting of Khin Nuyunt in October 2004 spelled the return of the regime's hardliners and of the last of the army's nationalist chiefs, adamantly opposed to any negotiations with the democratic civilian opposition led by Aung San Suu, held under house arrest since May 2003. Thus the regime, strengthened by a favorable strategic environment, has a good chance of remaining in power by setting its own rules for "democratic" procedures, its aim being to keep the country stable rather pursuing a process of liberalization. Such a policy will inevitably be detrimental to the interests of the opposition and the ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Burma and Southeast Asia

455. Local Elections and Democracy in Indonesia: The Case of the Riau Archipelago

Author:
Nankyung Choi
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In this essay, I examine the dynamics and outcomes of Indonesia's first ever direct local executive elections in a case study of the gubernatorial election in the Riau Archipelago. Specifically, I examine the election processes, identify the major issues before, during, and after the elections, and assess voters' participation. I then examine the ways direct local executive elections have affected the dynamics of local politics in the country. Overall, this essay aims to further develop our understanding of political dynamics in the Riau Archipelago and grasp the practical significance of local political change in Indonesia more broadly.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

456. Piracy in Southeast Asia New Trends, Issues and Responses

Author:
Catherine Zara Raymond
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Piracy has plagued the region of Southeast Asia for many centuries and continues to do so to the present day. Despite increased efforts by the regional countries to reduce the problem, pirate attacks take place on an alarmingly regular basis in what are some of the world's most strategically important waterways. This paper will examine the phenomenon of piracy in Southeast Asia, in particular that which occurs in and around the waters of Indonesia and the Straits of Malacca. The trends which have emerged in recent years will be highlighted; specifically the types of attacks which take place, the different groups carrying out the attacks, the equipment they use and their targeting patterns. The study will then examine the causes of piracy, its impact and finally the responses of the region's states to the problem.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

457. Great Powers and Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies: Omni-Enmeshment, Balancing and Hierarchical Order

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region–omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Southeast Asia

458. Southeast Asian Maritime Security In The Age of Terror: Threats, Opportunity, And Charting The Course Forwards

Author:
John Bradford
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2005, Southeast Asian security cooperation is still regarded as inadequate to defend the region against maritime threats. However, structural, economic and normative factors are enabling greater cooperation in the post-9/11 “Age of Terror”. This article open with a brief outline of the history of Southeast Asian maritime security cooperation from 1990 to December 2004, and then discusses the various maritime threats faced by the region. It next described five factors that are enabling greater maritime security cooperation in the age of Terror. The potential application of those factors is assessed to anticipate the most likely forms of future regional cooperation. While cooperation will expand on many levels, the most fruitful cooperation will result from improved networks of bilateral relationships. Information in this working paper will be of interest to these seeking to understand the cooperation and security dynamics of this important and intensely maritime region. It should be of specific interest to those policymakers seeking to improve international cooperation to combat Southeast Asian transnational maritime threats such as terrorism, piracy and smuggling.</p
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

459. Maritime Terrorism In Southeast Asia: A Risk Assessment

Author:
Catherine Zara Raymond
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This article seeks to investigate the extent of the threat posed by maritime terrorism to commercial ports and shipping in Southeast Asia. It will focus in particular on the threat from the terrorist groups located in Indonesia and the Philippines and the vulnerability of vessels passing through Southeast Asia's strategic sea-lanes
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

460. The Indonesian Military As A Professional Organization : Criteria And Ramifications For Reform

Author:
John Bradford
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
As parallel and co-dependent entities, Indonesia's civil government and military (TNI) defy many of the most basic precepts of conventional civil-military relations theory. By analyzing the unique Indonesian relationship, this essay supplements conventional theory. Judging the TNI against three criteria --responsibility, expertise, and corporateness-- reveals a potent, fiercely independent institution with a powerful sense of duty. However, TNI capabilities are undermined by a lack of expertise, a factionalized corporate body, and a membership which pursues excessive self-interest. Such analysis confirms that for democracy to thrive in Indonesia the TNI must "professionalize" but those reforms must be accompanied by the strengthening of civil institutions' ability to both provide for the nation and protect the TNI's material and ideological interests.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia