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231. Stirring up the South China Sea (II): Regional Responses

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The South China Sea dispute between China and some of its South East Asian neighbours – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei – has reached an impasse. Increasingly assertive positions among claimants have pushed regional tensions to new heights. Driven by potential hydrocarbon reserves and declining fish stocks, Vietnam and the Philippines in particular are taking a more confrontational posture with China. All claimants are expanding their military and law enforcement capabilities, while growing nationalism at home is empowering hardliners pushing for a tougher stance on territorial claims. In addition, claimants are pursuing divergent resolution mechanisms; Beijing insists on resolving the disputes bilaterally, while Vietnam and the Philippines are actively engaging the U.S. and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To counter diminishing prospects of resolution of the conflicts, the countries should strengthen efforts to promote joint development of hydrocarbon and fish resources and adopt a binding code of conduct for all parties to the dispute.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Maritime Commerce, Natural Resources, and Food
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, Israel, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, and Brunei

232. Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar has embarked on an ambitious program of sweeping reforms to end its isolation and integrate its economy with the global system. Closely entwined with its dramatic political transition, the end of longstanding Western sanctions is supporting this reconfiguration. If the reforms are done well, many across the country stand to benefit, but those who profited most from the old regime's restrictions and privileges will lose access to windfall profits and guaranteed monopolies. The crony businessmen, military and party elite will still do well but will need to play by new rules, meet domestic and foreign competition and even pay taxes. Perhaps recognising the opportunities a more vibrant economy in a fast-growing region will bring for all, there is no major pushback to these changes, rather attempts to adapt to the new economy. The challenges and risks are numerous for a government with little experience juggling the many changes required, but it cannot resist the pent-up political pressure for change it has already unleashed.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

233. The Transformation of Southeast Asian Terrorism

Author:
Hamoon Khelghat-Doost and Govindran Jegatesen
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
PENANG—One of the major repercussions following the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington was new interest in certain regions that were previously regarded as of relatively low importance with regard to terrorism hotspots. Southeast Asia is one such example. The extremely diverse ethnic, religious, cultural and linguistic texture of Southeast Asia—coupled with an alarming number of legislative deficiencies—provides a safe haven for many different varieties of extremism. The prevalence of groups such as Abu Sayyaf (the Philippines) and Al-Ma'unah (Malaysia), as well as events such as the 2002 Bali bombing, clearly demonstrate the attractiveness of Southeast Asia as a terrorism hub—and the potential for terrorist activity there. The reasons are obvious. Southeast Asia is home to more than 20 percent of the world's Muslims, making Islamic radicalism a core security challenge for countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Indeed, after knowledge of al-Qaeda's extensive global terrorist network was made public, several extremist groups in Southeast Asia were identified as Al-Qaeda regional partners and terrorist cells. These include Jemmaah Islamiah (JI), Abu Sayyaf, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Islamist separatists of Patani and Laskar Jihad (LJ).
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
New York, Washington, Malaysia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

234. Indonesia: Dynamics of Violence in Papua

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A spate of violence in Papua in May and June 2012 exposed the lack of a coherent government strategy to address this multidimensional conflict. Shootings of non-Papuans in the provincial capital Jayapura in June, likely involving pro-independence militants, were followed by the death of one of those militants at police hands, highlighting the political dimension of the problem. In Wamena, a rampage by soldiers after the death of a comrade shows the depth of distrust between local communities and the army, and the absence of mechanisms to deal with crises. The shooting of five Papuans by newly arrived members of a paramilitary police unit (Brigade Mobile, Brimob) in a remote gold-mining area of Paniai highlights the violence linked to Papua's vast resource wealth and rent-seeking by the security apparatus with little oversight from Jakarta. While these events are still under investigation, they signal that unless the Yudhoyono government can address these very different aspects of the conflict, things may get worse. An overhaul of security policy would help.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

235. "Small Is Beautiful": Lessons from Laos for the Study of Chinese Overseas

Author:
Danielle Tan
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
During the colonial period, Laos welcomed the smallest overseas Chinese communities in Southeast Asia, communities that almost disappeared after the communist forces seized power in Laos in 1975. Yet, this landlocked country shares a long history with China and even experienced a Golden Age thanks to the thriving caravan trade between Yunnan and mainland Southeast Asia. The Greater Mekong Subregion initiative, a development programme launched by the Asian Development Bank, has revitalized these historical trade routes, causing thousands of Chinese migrants to pour onto the new roads of Laos, channelled through the North–South Economic Corridor linking Kunming to Bangkok. Depicted as “an army of ants” that plunders the natural resources of this poor country, these Chinese migrants are also the main drivers of development. The paper seeks to examine the specificity of China's engagement in Laos. I suggest that this small and forgotten country can provide insightful lessons to better understand the current changes taking place in Chinese migration worldwide.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Laos

236. Indonesia: Defying the State

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Local institutions in Indonesia, empowered by decentralisation, are defying the country's highest courts with impunity, undermining judicial authority and allowing local conflicts to fester. District councils, mayors and regional election commissions have learned that there is little cost to ignoring court rulings on electoral or religious disputes, pandering instead to local constituencies and pressure groups. Decisive leadership from the president could make a difference; instead, slow and ineffective responses from Jakarta brew more insubordination. If the regions become overconfident in their new powers and the central state continues to respond weakly, this lack of commitment to rule of law could encourage more conflict as the national political temperature rises ahead of the 2014 presidential election.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

237. US-Russian Partnership for Advancing a Nuclear Security Agenda

Author:
Anton Khlopkov
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States and the Russian Federation have engaged in bilateral and multilateral nuclear security efforts to secure nuclear materials and facilities in the region. This cooperation contributed to nuclear security globally and developed various tools, mechanisms, and approaches that need to be fully utilized by the international community. As new nuclear security challenges emerge, the implementation of sustainable nuclear security measures is constrained by limited expertise and resources, particularly in some key regions. For this reason, the application of US-Russian expertise and experience in cooperative threat reduction is essential to successful implementation of the global nuclear security agenda. Researchers investigate nuclear security challenges in other countries and regions—specifically in Southeast Asia and the former Soviet states of Central Asia—and examine possible ways by which the lessons learned from US-Russian nuclear security cooperation over the past two decades can be a
Topic:
Security, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Safety
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Post-Soviet Europe

238. Executive Accountability in Southeast Asia: The Role of Legislatures in New Democracies and Under Electoral Authoritarianism

Author:
William Case
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In an influential study, Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig argue that “overarching institutional designs” (i.e., presidential, parliamentary, and dual systems) tell us less about the prospects of a new democracy than does the particular strength of the legislature. Specifically, executive abuses are best checked where legislatures are powerful, generating horizontal accountability. Indeed, Fish and Kroenig suggest that with judiciaries and watchdog agencies weak in most new democracies, the legislature is the only institution by which accountability can be imposed. What is more, ordinary citizens are better informed by the robust party systems that strong legislatures support, fostering vertical accountability. In comparing Freedom House scores with their Parliamentary Powers Index (PPI), Fish and Kroenig show clear correlations, leading them to conclude that democracies are made strong by legislatures that are empowered.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

239. Cambodia's Bumpy Development Road: Implications for US Interests

Author:
Donald Jameson
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Cambodia in late 2010, she told senior Cambodian government officials "this does not look like the country I have been reading about in the press." Most first-time visitors to Phnom Penh would likely react similarly. The city hosts a vibrant society, with traffic-clogged streets, a proliferation of stylish restaurants and boutiques, and buildings under construction everywhere, many of them high-rise apartments and office blocks. If the visitor were to venture outside the capital, large-scale investment in infrastructure, especially roads and bridges, with construction underway on additional projects are what greet the eye. In addition, there are extensive land clearing projects underway for new plantations to grow rubber, palm oil, cashews and other tropical products, as well as new industrial sites springing up along main transportation arteries. In short, Cambodia is clearly a country on the move economically.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

240. Pigs, People and a Pandemic: Communicating Risk in a City-state

Author:
K. U. Menon
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
Abstract:
The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, also known as the swine flu pandemic, was a test of risk communications methodology and processes. Governments were called upon to make tough decisions in the absence of substantive epidemiological data and baffling case fatality rates (CFRs). While New York adopted mitigation measures, Hong Kong and Singapore followed aggressive containment protocols. Recent studies however suggest that the benefits of such measures – achieved at great cost and allocation of resources – are minimal. This review looks primarily at the experience of a small city-state, Singapore, and compares it with two other equally densely populated cities – New York and Hong Kong – and how all three confronted the challenge and the lessons to be drawn from their experience in risk communications. Communicating risk required deft handling by political leaders and officials to persuade people to adopt strict measures. In the wake of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic, there were high expectations in Hong Kong and Singapore for visible containment measures to continue in the event of future pandemics even when benefits were known to be minimal. Cultural differences may explain the receptivity of the populace in these countries to the stiff measures put in place to contain the disease. However, this requires further study.
Topic:
Health
Political Geography:
Israel, Asia, and Southeast Asia