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51. Jokowi’s second term: economic challenges and outlook

Author:
Siwage Dharma Negara
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Abstract:
After winning the 2019 election, President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s has a great opportunity to bring the Indonesian economy into a stronger footing. Jokowi’s economic policies achieved mixed outcomes in his first term (2014–2019). He hasn’t delivered a promised 7% economic growth, but steady 5% growth is perceived as a commendable achievement, given slowing global growth, rising uncertainties, and low commodity prices. Macroeconomic stability has been well maintained, and Indonesia’s creditworthiness has improved during this first term.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Economic growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

52. Global Jihad in South East Asia: Examining the expansion of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda

Author:
Mona Kanwal Sheikh
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In recent decades, news media all over the world have increasingly covered the issue of human trafficking. Human trafficking is a notoriously complex subject involving migration, border politics, gender, consent, agency and morality. Yet, simplistic ideas and framings of human trafficking often end up shaping broader understandings of human trafficking in policy and the public sphere. This report is written by DIIS Senior Researcher Sine Plambech and journalist Maria Brus Pedersen. The aim is not only to provide insights into the framing of human trafficking in the Danish media, but furthermore to serve as a learning tool for journalists covering human trafficking. An analysis of this type has not been undertaken in Denmark before and thus provides the reader with new insights into the evolution of how the Danish media framed human trafficking from 2010 to 2019. The report has three main findings: First, the framing of human trafficking in the Danish media has changed significantly over the past decade, from mainly covering human trafficking solely as a matter of prostitution and a human rights issue for women in 2010 to becoming an issue of migration with security and legal implications in 2019. As such there has been a development away from a focus on women’s ‘bodies’ to a focus on ‘borders’ and migration politics. Secondly, in comparison to 2010, today the media more commonly describe the trafficking of men to forced labor and human trafficking generally to other sectors than prostitution. Yet, the framing continues to be significantly gendered. Though identified victims of trafficking in Denmark are most usually migrants, the men are framed primarily as migrant workers in exploitative situations, whereas the women are described as victims of trafficking. This gendered framing derives primarily from the perspective that prostitution is victimizing by default and is not seen as a kind of work. Thirdly, despite the more nuanced framing, a simplistic sensationalist language still risks dehumanizing and overshadowing the complexity of human trafficking. In particular, this is because it is the media, rather than those who have been identified as victims of trafficking, who use these terms to describe their situation, as some of the journalists also confirmed. The report has a number of suggestions for journalists covering issues of human trafficking, some of them being; Be cautious with language. There is often a difference between the language used by politicians and NGOs and the language used by migrant workers to describe their situations. Sensationalist language like ‘prostitutes’, ‘sex slaves’ and ‘meat markets’ are loaded terms that contribute to marginalization and stigmatization. Migrant workers are not only victims of trafficking, they have agency in respect of their own migration trajectories: the one does not exclude the other. Human trafficking can be used as a yardstick for many different political agendas: consider which agendas you might be contributing to. Consider using counter narratives, activist reporting and investigative journalism as these approaches contribute to expanding our understanding of human trafficking. This report is published by DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies with funding from the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), in partnership with the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

53. Disinformation Goes South: Political technologies threaten developing countries

Author:
Adam Moe Fejerskov and Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Political technologies executed from within the digital domain are increasingly deployed in the Global South. Here, social media monopolies and an upsurge in the number of new digital media users allow information operations to reach millions and affect important political developments. The consequences can be fatal, as seen in Myanmar. Recommendations Be prepared for a rapid transfer of the political technology of contemporary information operations to political actors in the Global South ■ Anticipate information operations, including the use of disinformation, that exploit the combination of social media monopolies and an upsurge in the number of new digital media users ■ Invest in digital media literacy and social media accountability mechanisms in states that have recently been affected by media disruption
Topic:
Security, Development, Science and Technology, and Fragile States
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

54. The concept of hedging and its application to Southeast Asia: a critique and a proposal for a modified conceptual and methodological framework

Author:
Jürgen Haacke
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
In the context of the complex unipolar post-Cold War period that has witnessed China’s reemergence as an economic and military power, small and middle powers are increasingly considered to be hedging. This analysis is especially prevalent in relation to Southeast Asian countries, many of which face security challenges posed by China. However, as the literature on hedging has expanded, the concept’s analytical value is no longer obvious. Different understandings of hedging compete within the literature, and there are many criteria by which hedging is empirically ascertained, leading to confusion even over the basic question of which countries are hedging. In response, this article presents a modified conceptual and methodological framework that clearly delineates hedging from other security strategies and identifies key criteria to evaluate whether smaller powers are hedging when confronting a serious security challenge by one of the major powers. This framework is then applied to Malaysia and Singapore.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, Asia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

55. A Sustainable Policy for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bangladesh is hosting nearly a million Rohingya refugees who have little hope of going home any time soon. The government should move to improve camp living conditions, in particular by lifting the education ban and fighting crime. Donors should support such steps. What’s new? Two years after atrocities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State drove a wave of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh, prospects for repatriation remain dim. Frustrated Bangladeshi authorities refuse to plan for the long term, have introduced stringent security measures at refugee camps, and may move some refugees to a remote island, Bhasan Char. Why did it happen? The Bangladeshi government is struggling with growing security challenges near the refugee camps and domestic political pressure to resolve the crisis. It is also irritated by the lack of progress in repatriating any of the estimated one million Rohingya refugees on its soil. Why does it matter? Dhaka’s restrictions on aid activities prohibit its partners from building safe housing in the Rohingya camps or developing programs that cultivate refugee self-reliance. Combined with heavy-handed security measures, this approach risks alienating refugees and setting the stage for greater insecurity and conflict in southern Bangladesh. What should be done? While pressing for eventual repatriation, Bangladesh and external partners should move past short-term planning and work together to build safe housing, improve refugees’ educational and livelihood opportunities, and support refugee-hosting communities. Dhaka should also roll back its counterproductive security measures and plans for relocations to Bhasan Char.
Topic:
Security, Minorities, Refugees, Ethnic Cleansing, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Asia, and Southeast Asia

56. Peace and Electoral Democracy in Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar’s 2020 polls are a chance to consolidate electoral democracy in the country. Yet many ethnic minorities doubt that voting gives them a real say. To preempt possible violence, the government and outside partners should work to enhance the ballot’s inclusiveness and transparency. What’s new? Myanmar will go to the polls in late 2020. Political positioning has begun in earnest, affecting important governmental decision-making. In ethnic-minority areas, particularly Rakhine State, there is growing disillusionment with electoral democracy that could fuel escalating violence. Why does it matter? The pre-election period of political contestation will likely exacerbate ethnic tensions and conflict risks, particularly in the country’s periphery. At the same time, balloting will be a crucial opportunity to consolidate gains in electoral democracy – an important if insufficient step toward long-term peace and stability in Myanmar. What should be done?  To bolster ethnic minorities’ faith in elections, the government should signal its intention to appoint state chief ministers from the winning party in each state, rather than imposing National League for Democracy-led governments everywhere. More transparent decision-making about the likely cancellation of voting in conflict-affected areas would also help.
Topic:
Minorities, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

57. China’s Future Naval Base in Cambodia and the Implications for India

Author:
John Foulkes and Howard Wang
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Recent media reports have indicated that Cambodia signed a “secret agreement” giving the PRC use of Ream, where it may station military servicemen and warships, for 30 years (WSJ, July 22). Although Cambodian and Chinese officials vehemently deny the existence of this agreement, gaining access to Ream is broadly consistent with Chinese foreign policy. The PRC appears to be employing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding to further strategic cooperation with Cambodia through the construction of potential dual-use infrastructure. Ream naval base is the latest in a network of regional security projects—including Cambodia’s Dara Sakor investment zone and Thailand’s Kra Canal—which, taken together, significantly improve Chinese power projection into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). News of the Ream agreement raises the specter of increasing Chinese maritime militarization at a time of intense unease in Southeast Asia. Conspicuously silent in this latest controversy is India, which has significant economic and military interests in Southeast Asia. This article will discuss the security infrastructure China is building in Cambodia and its implications for Indian interests in the region.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Navy
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, India, Asia, Cambodia, and Southeast Asia

58. Good Governance of the Security Sector in Southeast Asia: What Role for Parliament?

Author:
Mario Joyo Aguja, Hans Born, Pou Sothirak, Paul Chambers, Iis Gindarsah, Rastam Mohd Isa, Nurul Izzati Kamrulbahri, Mohd Syahir Naufal Mahmud Fauzi, Yin Myo Thu, and Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The publication "€Good Governance of the Security Sector in Southeast Asia: What Role for Parliament?" is a compilation of contributions submitted at the 10th Anniversary Workshop of the Inter-Parliamentary Forum on Security Sector Governance in Southeast Asia (IPF-SSG) in Siem Reap on 15-16 September 2016. The publication consists of country case studies of Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Geneva, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

59. The Challenges of Universal Health Insurance in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Large-scale Randomized Experiment in Indonesia

Author:
Abhijit Banerjee, Amy Finkelstein, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, Arianna Ornaghi, and Sudarno Sumarto
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
To assess ways to achieve widespread health insurance coverage with financial solvency in developing countries, we designed a randomized experiment involving almost 6,000 households in Indonesia who are subject to a nationally mandated government health insurance program. We assessed several interventions that simple theory and prior evidence suggest could increase coverage and reduce adverse selection: substantial temporary price subsidies (which had to be activated within a limited time window and lasted for only a year), assisted registration, and information. Both temporary subsidies and assisted registration increased initial enrollment. Temporary subsidies attracted lower-cost enrollees, in part by eliminating the practice observed in the no subsidy group of strategically timing coverage for a few months during health emergencies. As a result, while subsidies were in effect, they increased coverage more than eightfold, at no higher unit cost; even after the subsidies ended, coverage remained twice as high, again at no higher unit cost. However, the most intensive (and effective) intervention – assisted registration and a full one-year subsidy – resulted in only a 30 percent initial enrollment rate, underscoring the challenges to achieving widespread coverage.
Topic:
Government, Health, Health Care Policy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

60. Tax Administration vs. Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia

Author:
M. Chatib Basri, Mayara Felix, Rema Hanna, and Benjamin A. Olken
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Developing countries collect a far lower share of GDP in taxes than richer countries. This paper asks whether changes in tax administration and tax rates can nevertheless raise substantial additional revenue – and if so, which approach is most effective. We study corporate taxation in Indonesia, where the government implemented two reforms that differentially affected firms. First, we show that increasing tax administration intensity by moving the top firms in each region into “Medium-Sized Taxpayer Offices,” with much higher staff-to-taxpayer ratios, more than doubled tax revenue from affected firms over six years, with increasing impacts over time. Second, using non-linear changes to the corporate income tax schedule, we estimate an elasticity of taxable income of 0.59, which implies that the revenue-maximizing rate is almost double the current rate. The increased revenue from improvements in tax administration is equivalent to raising the marginal corporate tax rate on affected firms by about 23 percentage points. We suggest one reason improved tax administration was so effective was that it flattened the relationship between firm size and enforcement, removing the additional “enforcement tax” on large firms. On net, our results suggest that improving tax administration can have significant returns for developing country governments.
Topic:
Governance, Developing World, Reform, Business, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia