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61. Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Post-War Situation in the South Caucasus Region” is dedicated to the possible cooperation opportunities in the aftermath of latest 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020 with focus on different views from various experts driven from different countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, European Union, Geopolitics, Conflict, Peace, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

62. Pax Caucasia: Prospects of Peace and Cooperation in South Caucasus

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Pax Caucasia: Prospects of Peace and Cooperation in South Caucasus” is dedicated to the possible cooperation opportunities in the aftermath of latest 44-days war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020 with focus on different views from various countries. The CSP’s new issue includes 5 articles, 2 commentaries and 1 book review. In the framework of post-war cooperation situation, the CSP’s current authors analysed the economic difficulties of Armenia, Azerbaijan’s enhancing role in the region and existing geopolitical confrontations, performance of peacekeeping activities, as well as economic cooperation opportunities emerged in the post-war period.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, War, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, United States of America, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Guam

63. Not A Top European Priority: Can the EU Engage Geopolitically in the South Caucasus?

Author:
Amanda Paul
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The European Union has been active in the South Caucasus since Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia regained independence in 1991. While the EU has established itself as an important partner for all three states over the past three decades, the South Caucasus is certainly not a top foreign policy priority for Brussels. Despite hopes that EU policies could act as transformative tools to help strengthen stability, security, and democracy as well as bring about a more cohesive and resilient region, the results have been rather patchy from the EU’s perspective. Likewise, expectations that the EU would develop a more geostrategic and security orientated policy in order to balance Russia have been dashed.
Topic:
European Union and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and South Caucasus

64. The Karabakh Peace Process: Rebuilding Trust for International Engagement

Author:
Dennis Sammut
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The engagement of the international community in dealing with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been somewhat erratic and the efforts to broker a peace deal largely unsuccessful. Short outbursts of violence now regularly alternate with even shorter moments of optimism when peace appears within reach. Since the ceasefire agreement of 1994, geopolitical considerations have contributed to the reinforcement of deeply entrenched local animosities, fears, and distrusts, all of which have reduced the ability of the international community to act as an honest broker. A conflict that many believed could have been defused and resolved 30 years ago now appears intractable and unsolvable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, International Community, and Peace
Political Geography:
South Caucasus and Nagorno-Karabakh

65. A Most Significant Geopolitical Development: Strategic Benefits and Strategic Focus

Author:
Metthew Bryza
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The November 10th, 2020, trilateral agreement signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Russian President Vladimir Putin could become the most significant geopolitical development in the South Caucasus since the collapse of the Soviet Union—perhaps even more than the establishment of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil and Baku-TbilisiErzurum natural gas pipelines. But it is not yet clear that key actors in the Transatlantic community appreciate this opportunity, especially Washington and Paris, who along with Moscow, comprise the Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, the supposedly impartial mediating body of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The trilateral agreement defines a peace settlement in line with the framework unofficially agreed by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan over a decade ago, and thus stands a good chance to hold. The so-called “Basic Principles” or “Madrid Principles” were originally tabled by the American Russian, and French Co-chairs of the Minsk Group in November 2007 at a meeting of OSCE foreign ministers in Madrid.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and OSCE
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, Asia, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

66. While You Were Sleeping: Winds of Change in the South Caucasus

Author:
Alper Coşkun
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The flaring up of active combat in the Southern Caucasus in late September 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia initially seemed to catch many by surprise. An immediate upside of this turn of events was seen in the rekindled interest it generated in the three decade-old conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, which was often misleadingly labeled as being “frozen.” It also acted as a crude reminder of the need for consistency in advocating respect for a rulesbased international order.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

67. The End of the Second Karabakh War: Has a Lasting Peace Come to the South Caucasus?

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
In a year in which the whole world seemed to have frozen its conflicts, uniting its efforts to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, a war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions in Azerbaijan. This was a full-scale armed conflict involving two nations in the South Caucasus, but unlike the first Karabakh war that lasted for more than six years, this war lasted only six weeks. Mainly due to modern warfare and deployment of new sophisticated technology, namely unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by Azerbaijan, a long war of attrition was avoided. Thus, the second war caused a significantly lower destruction of properties and cultural sites in this region of rich history on the crossroads between Asia and Europe, the Caspian and the Black Sea. The short duration of this war also insured that no big players neighboring Armenia and Azerbaijan get directly involved on either of the two warring sides, which could have had incomprehensible consequences for the international community. This is because the countries neighboring the conflict area are substantively different comparatively to what they were in the first half of the nineties when the first Karabakh war took place. Firstly, to the north, Russia was then a country facing disintegration and social implosion, with its military in disarray, unable to quell a rebellion in its small republic of Chechnya in the North Caucasus. Today, Russia is the second military force in the world, spreading its political and military clout far beyond its borders. Secondly, to the west, Turkey has become a major political power in the region, assertive and ambitious, the size of its military is second only to that of the US in NATO. Thirdly, to the south, Iran which was by late eighties a country weary of conflicts after a long war with Iraq, is today a regional power wielding it leverage in most of the Middle East. Considering this, the second war in Karabakh had a potential of erupting to a wider regional conflict, and considering the players involved, even into a global conflict. However, while Europe was introducing a second wave of lockdowns in order to grind to a halt the coronavirus, and while the US was embroiled in the presidential election campaign, shattered by an unprecedented economic slump and civil unrest, the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted without much attention of the international community. When the conflict finally started to gain the interest of the world, it rapidly ended, leaving the international community once again perplexed. Has the ceasefire agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan on November 9 brought a lasting peace to the South Caucasus, or is the truce just temporary, freezing the conflict for yet another round of hostilities?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Caucasus

68. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 1, 29.06.2020 – 26.07.2020

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Asia, and South Caucasus

69. 2021 State Budget of Azerbaijan: Independent View

Author:
Narmina Gasimova
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Restoring its territorial integrity, the Republic of Azerbaijan has entered a new era. The state authorities have to carry out restructure and infrastructure building tasks in the liberated territories to provide energy, utilities, transport infrastructure, and create conditions for life and business of citizens returning to their native lands. Therefore, one of the main features of the state budget for 2021 is the creation of financial security to implement the aforementioned honorable and responsible tasks. Along with their implementation, the budget for 2021 envisages the creation of financial guarantees for further improvement of the people's welfare, sustainable economic development, and implementation of state programs.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Budget, Economy, Transportation, and Utilities
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan and South Caucasus

70. China’s Activities in the South Caucasus: Issue 2, 27.07.2020 – 23.08.2020

Author:
Medea Ivaniadze
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The digest covers China’s political, diplomatic, economic and other activities in the South Caucasus region and relations between China and the South Caucasus countries. It relies on a wide variety of sources, including the Chinese media. It is worth noting that the Chinese media is controlled by the Communist Party of China (according to the World Press Freedom Index China is nearly at the bottom of the list and ranks 177th out of 180 countries)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Eurasia, Caucasus, Georgia, and South Caucasus