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811. American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
July 4th, 1999 was probably the most unusual July 4th in American diplomatic history, certainly among the most eventful. President Clinton engaged in one of the most sensitive diplomatic high wire acts of any administration, successfully persuading Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to pull back Pakistani backed fighters from a confrontation with India that could threaten to escalate into a nuclear war between the world's two newest nuclear powers. The events of that 4th accelerated the road to a fundamental reconciliation between the world's two largest democracies, India and the United States, but also set the scene for another in the series of military coups that have marred Pakistani democracy. As the President's Special Assistant for Near Eastern and South Asia Affairs at the National Security Council I had the honor of a unique seat at the table and the privilege of being a key adviser for the day's events.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, India, and Asia

812. Privatization: From Policy Formulation to Implementation: The View from the Inside

Author:
Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
It is both a privilege and a pleasure for me to deliver this year's Annual Fellows Lecture at the Center for Advanced Study of India. For many years in India, I used to receive an annual update on the activities of the Center when Dr. Francine Frankel visited Delhi and it is therefore particularly pleasant to visit the Center in person.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and New Delhi

813. The Shape of Postwar South Asia

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The low priority that the United States placed on South Asia, led to the creation of a Taliban ruled terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. To prevent such disasters in the future, the US must end its neglect, play an active role in the region, and commit sufficient energy and resources. The US must devise and implement an effective, well-funded, long-term strategy aimed at encouraging cooperation and regional integration. The strategy should stress clearly enunciated issues. These include: nonproliferation, demilitarization, regionally oriented economic development, poverty reduction, preservation of the environment, settling the Kashmir dispute, ending communal politics, and vitalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Kashmir

814. One Third of the World's Growth and Inequality

Author:
Danny Quah
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper studies growth and inequality in China and India—two economies that account for a third of the world's population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the paper calibrates the impact each has on different welfare indicators and on the personal income distribution across the joint population of the two countries. For personal income inequalities in a China-India universe, the forces assuming first-order importance are macroeconomic: Growing average incomes dominate all else. The relation between aggregate economic growth and within-country in- equality is insignificant for inequality dynamics.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

815. Welfare Implications of Fiscal Reform: The Case of Food Subsidies in India

Author:
Sonia Bhalotra
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of a food subsidy programme in India on child malnutrition by addressing the following linked questions using household survey data that includes information on usage of the public distribution system. First, does the food subsidy induce higher expenditures on food? Second, are there gender inequalities in the distribution of food within the household, and in the gains from the food subsidy? Third, does food spending impact on child health? Is this effect similar for boys and girls and in the short and the medium term? These questions are of interest with respect to the unusually high incidence of malnutrition in India, and they are topical in the context of current and controversial reform of the public distribution system through which the food subsidy operates.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

816. Impact of Globalization and Liberalization on Growth, Employment and Poverty: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:
Tilat Anwar
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While globalization is viewed as a key to future economic development, it is also argued that it increases poverty, threatens employment and living standards of the poor. Like many other developing countries, Pakistan also attempted to integrate its economy in the global economy through liberalizing its investment and trade regime within the framework of the IMF and the World Bank. A review of literature indicates that although a number of cross-country studies have shown a positive association between trade openness and economic growth, the recent work suggests that openness has no robust link with long-term growth. Thus, positive effects of liberalization on growth remain controversial. Evidence shows that despite numerous highly attractive incentives offered to foreign investors, Pakistan's performance in attracting the foreign investment has been poor. Similarly, despite the intensive trade liberalization, the trade performance has been dismal. The stabilization initially achieved proved to be short-lived due to the slippages in reform process occurred in the form of spread of tax exemption and concession leading to implementation of further stabilization measures. The repeated attempts to stabilize the economy together with liberalization and persistent devaluation of domestic currency pushed the economy in a vicious circle. The lowering of tariff rates led to a considerable loss of revenue and resulted in stagnant tax GDP ratio, resulting in reductio development expenditure to reduce the budget deficit. The government sought to restrain aggregate demand not only by granting wage increases below the inflation rate but also by freezing employment in the public sector. These developments together with liberalization led to lower GDP growth, increased indebtedness, higher unemployment and thus higher poverty incidence during the period of liberalization. This adverse outcome is reflection of the fact that the country was asked by the IMF to cut its tariff rates swiftly before adopting to a new system of domestic taxation. The structural adjustment programmes designed by the IMF/World Bank take the poverty as a residual issue. Hence, earlier anti-poverty programmes in Pakistan reached a small fraction of the poor, partly because their total size was limited and partly because of poor targeting. Hostility of globalization process suggests a broader approach and allocation of more funds for poverty reduction. For future growth and poverty reduction strategies, the issue of achieving higher growth must be combined with overall pattern of social progress and distribution.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

817. Poverty in India: Misspecified Policies and Estimates

Author:
M.H. Suryanarayana
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Specification counts in the formulation of any economic problem, estimation of its magnitude and its assessment. This is particularly so for problems in the context of economic development. Solutions for poverty alleviation in developing countries like India are often formulated under misspecified premises. This results in wrong choice and design of strategies and policies. Faulty evaluation due to specification errors in estimates of poverty only compounds the error. This paper discusses such an in issue in the context of strategies for and estimates of poverty reduction in the developing countries. The results are general. They are illustrated with reference to India.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

818. The Case for U.S. Leadership in Rebuilding Afghanistan

Author:
Wali M. Osman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To further its strategic interests and national security, the United States has intervened in Afghanistan twice in less than two decades, first in the fight against the Soviets and then the Taliban. Now, as Afghans attempt to rebuild, American interests are at stake again. Before the Soviet takeover, Afghanistan had been moving slowly toward modernity, its development impeded by ethnic and tribal divisions kept in check by the monarchy's patronage system. Today, the country needs not only a new physical infrastructure but also institutions that will enable it to function as a modern economy, while politically accommodating its diverse and divided population. Democratization and economic development offer the best hope for stability, and specific steps can be taken to achieve these outcomes, but the country cannot move forward without increased security. Warlords contest the authority of the transitional government, which is itself critically divided. Beyond the issue of security, there is the urgent need for a more active commitment of U.S. resources and influence to the political and economic aspects of the reconstruction effort.
Topic:
International Cooperation and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

819. Pakistan: Madrasas, Extremism And The Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In its new role as key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, Pakistan's military government has toned down many policies that previously fostered militancy and religious extremism within the country and internationally. Action against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and home-grown sectarian terrorists are examples. But the military's confrontation with its former religious allies is likely, at best, a short-term response compelled by circumstances and foreign pressure.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

820. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir