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161. The threat of growing extremism in Punjab

Author:
David Hansen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
During the last few years Punjab has experienced a deep social crisis in which Islamist organisations have been able to challenge the Pakistani authorities' power – as certain Islamist organisations, including extremist ones, increasingly are filling the role of welfare providers to the people. Punjab is experiencing a shift from the traditional Barelvi (Sufi) Islam towards more orthodox interpretations of the faith – often in quite radical variants. Some of the most important extremist Islamist organisations instrumental in this reorientation have become involved in criminal activity and in settling scores between competing bodies at the local level. Local judiciary, police and politicians often function as enablers for the extremists. This is not only troublesome for Pakistan: rising radical Islamist tendencies can be witnessed in Norway among certain Norwegian-Pakistanis. This policy brief describes some initial findings regarding the potential consequences of Punjab's social crisis, its patterns of extremism and the reorientation of religion in the province. It argues that in addition to being problematic for Pakistan, this development may have an adverse effect on diaspora communities living in the West.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

162. Security Sector Governance in Pakistan: Progress, But Many Challenges Persist

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The utility of the Pakistani army's domination over nearly all aspects of the state in Pakistan was brought into question following the US Navy SEAL raid on Osama bin Ladens hideout on May 2, 2011. Pakistanis wondered how these events could have occurred right under the military's nose. This issue paper examines the prospects for security sector governance in Pakistan and identifies the reforms that are necessary for Pakistan's government to make meaningful strides in this area. It begins by explaining the hegemonic role of the armed forces in the history of the state of Pakistan and the unique challenges of its contemporary security terrain before surveying security sector governance in several key areas: the security of Pakistan's growing nuclear arsenal; the all powerful intelligence agencies; disaster management; law enforcement; the criminal justice system and support to jihadist groups. While the report elucidates persistent shortcomings of security governance in all areas, it also highlights key areas of recent improvement, including disaster management and control of nuclear arms.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

163. Challenges for Independent News Media in Pakistan

Author:
Sherry Ricchiardi
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
For two years running, Pakistan has been ranked by international media monitors as the most dangerous place on earth for journalists. Media workers have been kidnapped, tortured, and beaten to death for delving into the nation's potent military apparatus and spy agencies. Bodies have been found with throats slit and flesh punctured with electric drills by Islamic militants, political extremists, and gangsters who take umbrage at what they write.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Torture, Mass Media, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

164. Bridging the Gap? The New Philanthropy in India

Author:
Karl F. Inderfurth and Persis Khambatta
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Standard Poor's recently cut its outlook on India's investment rating from stable to negative. The decision was met with shock from India's Ministry of Finance, but it echoed a sentiment currently running through policy discussions about India—that investors and policymakers in and outside of India are looking at the central government with disbelief and disappointment over the stalling of further economic reforms.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Food
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

165. Renewable Resource Shocks and Conflict in India's Maoist Belt

Author:
Devesh Kapur, Kishore Gawande, and Shanker Satyanath
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Is there a causal relationship between shocks to renewable natural resources, such as agricultural and forest lands, and the intensity of conflict? In this paper, we conduct a rigorous econometric analysis of a civil conflict that the Indian Prime Minister has called the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by his country, the so-called Maoist conflict. We focus on over-time within-district variation in the intensity of conflict in the states where this conflict is primarily located. Using a novel data set of killings, we find that adverse renewable resource shocks have a robust, significant association with the intensity of conflict. A one standard deviation decrease in our measure of renewable resources increases killings by 12.5 percent contemporaneously, 9.7 percent after a year, and 42.2 percent after two years. Our instrumental variables strategy allows us to interpret these findings in a causal manner.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economics, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

166. Understanding the Arms "Race" in South Asia

Author:
Toby Dalton and Jaclyn Tandler
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The apparently rapid pace of nuclear developments in India and Pakistan has led many analysts to warn of an impending arms race between the two countries. India and Pakistan are indeed entangled in a long-standing security competition. However, they are not two closely matched opponents engaged in a competitive tit-for-tat cycle of nuclear weapons development in which one state makes advancements to its nuclear capability and the other reacts in kind.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

167. Water Insecurity: A Threat for Pakistan and India

Author:
Shahid Ahmad
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For over thirty years (1960-90), the Indus Water Treaty has proved to be an outstanding example of conflict resolution between India and Pakistan. Due to the increase in water stress in the basin states since the early 90s, the Treaty has come under strain. It may find it difficult to survive into the next decade, even though there is no exit clause in the Treaty. Rising Pakistani demand and the continued building of hydro-power and other dams by India on the western rivers may further threaten the Treaty. What is the reality behind the emerging debates between the two basin states on water access and usage?
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, and Water
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Europe, South Asia, India, and Southeast Asia

168. La relation Pakistan – Etats-Unis : un patron et son client au bord de la rupture ? (The Pakistan-US relations : A relationship on the brink ?)

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
During the Cold War the US-Pakistan relationship was one in which the US considered Pakistan as a necessary part of its effort to contain communism in Asia while Pakistan considered its relationship with the US as strengthening its position vis a vis India. The high point in this relationship was during the Soviet-Afghan war. The US tried to renew this relationship after 9/11, although when Obama replaced GW Bush he stated his intention to move US-Pakistani relations off the security agenda which the Pentagone and the Pakistani army considered a priority. However, Obama rain into resistance from the Pakistani army and from the national security establishment in Washington- as can be seen from the security-oriented distribution of US aid. But not even in the area of security have the two nations been able truly to collaborate. To begin with, the strengthening of US-India relations angered Pakistan. Then Islamabad protected the Taliban in its fight with NATO. Finally, Obama violated Pakistani sovereignty (the Drone strikes in the tribal belt and the Ben Laden raid). These conflicting interest, however, do not necessary means the end of the relationship.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Peacekeeping, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

169. Voice and Vision: What the Women Say

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
In September 2012 the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN) convened the first regional “What the Women Say” MENA/South Asia Forum on Rights, Peace and Security with nearly 50 women representing 12 countries in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia region, with international partners. This group of peace and women’s rights experts, practitioners, activists and scholars met over a four-day period to draw on the framework provided by UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security to compare and contrast the fast-paced changes in the region. Their discussions included country situations analyses with attention to the gender dimensions of root causes and evolving political, economic, security, religious and socio-cultural trends; the threats and opportunities facing women’s movements; and the gendered dimensions of key transitional issues notably, legal and constitutional processes, transitional justice, security sector and economic reform.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Reform, Women, Economy, Peace, Case Study, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, and North Africa

170. A Worst Case Scenario? Assessing the Impact of a Complete ISAF Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan

Author:
Alec Worsnop
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
As the U.S. begins implementing an expected 2014 drawdown in Afghanistan, speculation abounds about what Afghanistan will look like if left in the hands of its national security forces (ANSF). Many analysts have argued that the Taliban will easily take control of their Pashtun homeland in southern Afghanistan. This result is attributed to the Taliban’s provision of shadow governance, its support from Pakistan, its relative success versus ISAF forces in the south, and the general weakness of the Afghan government, both politically and militarily. Though this result may not be so straightforward, there is a significant question of what a conflict would look like following such an outcome. In short, would the Taliban be able to take the rest of the country, or would the ANSF be able to hold off an advance?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Taliban, and Military
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia