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151. Trends in Militancy across South Asia

Author:
Thomas M. Sanderson, Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Zachary I. Fellman, and Rob Wise
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The bulk of international counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and related efforts over the last decade have focused on targeting a select few extremist organizations such as al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Yet looming security transitions, international fiscal strictures, demographic trends, religious and ethnic tensions, popular dissatisfaction, and weak governance are likely having significant and worrying effects on a wide array of militant actors around the world. A narrow focus on those groups perceived to be the most immediate threats has, at times, come at the cost of a broader understanding of militancy and how it may manifest in a given region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Taliban

152. Iran, Afghanistan, and South Asia: Resolving Regional Sources of Instability

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Fatemah Aman
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
When compared to its often rocky relations with Arab countries to the west, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to retain largely cordial ties with its neighbors to the east. Historic linguistic, religious, and cultural connections have helped Iran keep its influence in South Asia and become a key trading partner despite US-led sanctions. Because of its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, Iran provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not require transit through Pakistan. However, Iran and its neighbors, including Pakistan, face acute challenges such as scarce and poorly managed water resources, ethnic insurgencies, energy imbalances, and drug trafficking that require regional solutions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North America, and Persia

153. The India-Australia security engagement: Opportunities and challenges

Author:
David Brewster
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
India wants to take a leading strategic role throughout the Indian Ocean region and expand its strategic reach further into the Pacific. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has commented, India now sees itself as a “net security provider” to the region. But what will this mean in terms of India’s regional relationships? Over the last decade or more, India has spent a lot of money on modernising its defence forces. This includes buying aircraft carriers, submarines, and aircraft that will give India the ability to project power at longer distances. But India has given relatively less attention to developing closer security partnerships in the region, particularly with the middle states of the Indian Ocean. In many ways, the recognition of India as a regional leader will depend on the quality of these relationships. One of these relationships – between India and Australia – will become increasingly important to both countries. Indeed, there is an opportunity for them to develop a strategic partnership that effectively spans the Indo-Pacific. The two countries are the leading maritime powers among Indian Ocean states, they share many values and traditions, and their strategic interests are becoming increasingly aligned. Although the two countries have for long operated in largely separate strategic spheres, these are now converging. India has strategic interests throughout the Indo-Pacific and Australia is taking a much greater interest in the Indian Ocean region and in India, in particular. The shared strategic concerns include maritime security, the stability of the region, and the role of China. But while there are many opportunities to develop a close strategic partnership, there will also be challenges for both sides.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Engagement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Australia, and Indo-Pacific

154. What the Women Say: Elusive Peace, Pervasive Violence: Sri Lankan Women’s Struggle for Security and Justice

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
Four years ago in May 2009, the Sri Lankan military routed the Liberation Tamil Tigers of Eelam (LTTE), destroyed its leadership and secured control of Tamil dominated areas in the country’s north. Sri Lanka is lauded as the first country to eradicate terrorism on its own soil, but the 2009 victory came at significant human cost. An estimated 300,000 people were displaced. According to the U.N., some 40,000 civilians were killed in the first five months of 2009. This brief focuses on women in Sri Lanka’s northern provinces in the aftermath of war. Drawing on a survey conducted in ten war-torn districts and discussions with over 450 women, it reflects on women’s legal gains and their activism for peace and human rights while also highlighting the critical security, economic and social risks that many women face.4 The recommendations we offer to the Sri Lankan government and the international community reflect the survey findings and priorities outlined in the 2012 Sri Lankan Women’s Agenda on Peace, Security and Development.
Topic:
Security, Women, Violence, Peace, and Justice
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

155. Homegrown Jihadists and the Evolution of al-Qaeda

Author:
Barry Cooper
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Accurate assessments of the threat posed by al-Qaeda to Western interests and government have been hampered by imprecise language and an absence of historical memory. Arguably the organization is over thirty years old. Unquestionably the franchises and self-described affiliates of al-Qaeda bear little resemblance to the elite terrorist organization that attacked the United States on 11 September, 2001. This paper describes the evolution of al-Qaeda from being a source of assistance to mujahedeen fighting the Red Army in Afghanistan to the armed insurgents operating today in Africa and the Greater Middle East, on the one hand, and the homegrown, often self-recruited and largely incompetent “jihadists” who are more a nuisance to western police forces than they are a serious military threat. This change in the effectiveness and operational capability of al-Qaeda does not mean that it will disappear, not least of all because the members of that organization think of themselves as fighting an endless war. It does mean that we ought to have a realistic understanding of the reduced nature of the threat that al-Qaeda can make to our interests.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Eurasia

156. Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation in Northeast Afghanistan: Approaches and Methods

Author:
Jan Koehler, Christoph Zürcher, and Jan Böhnke
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
This report is a documentation of the methodological approach for an impact assessment of development intervention in conflict zones. We designed this approach for one specific region, Northeast Afghanistan, but we believe that it can easily be adapted to other regions and other contexts. This report is one result of an eight-year cooperative research project conducted by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), evaluation division, and Freie Universität Berlin’s Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700. The overall objectives of this project are, first, to develop a method for assessing the impact of development cooperation in conflict zones, and second, to apply this method in Northeast Afghanistan. The experiences from the first round of the emerging longitudinal impact assessment were taken into consideration in the present report. The basic question that we seek to address is whether development cooperation positively affects the stabilization of a conflict zone through a positive impact on general attitudes toward foreign intervention, on the legitimacy of the Afghan state, and on perceived security threats.
Topic:
Security, Development, International Cooperation, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

157. Climate Change and its Impact on the Political Dynamics of Pakistan

Author:
Zafar Imran
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The assessment report of the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council on Climate and Social Stress and the Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security both refer to a possible link between climate change and social instability in countries around the world. They argue that climatic variations in combination with preexisting social and political problems may contribute to social disruptions that could result in political instability, state failure, and sub-national violence, and thereby pose threats to international security. Although there is a growing consensus about climate change’s ability to disrupt societies, and ultimately threaten global security, little is understood about what these climate-induced social and political stresses will look like and how they may interact with each other, as well as with other factors endogenous to a society, to destabilize countries and regions. Most of the literature on the subject points to a mono-causal link between climate change and resource scarcity (predominantly food and water), and explains how food and water insecurity may stoke socio-political stresses. Although, this “neo-Malthusian” theory has improved our understanding about the dangers that climate change poses to international security, it is far from being complete and is over simplistic. Using Pakistan as a case study, this paper argues that the link between climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict is not as straightforward as many studies suggest it to be. Piecing together publicly available data about Pakistan, this paper suggest two points: First, climatic changes disturb the social and political equilibrium of a society by either creating new fault lines in the social, political, or ethnic landscape of that society, or by exacerbating existing ones. Disequilibrium brought about by climatic variability creates new winners and losers, and manifests itself in the form of social and political unrest by heightening tensions among them. Conflict may come later and will be difficult to reverse, as it will occur not only due to resource scarcity but also because of political grievances and tensions in a highly fragmented society. Second, the preexisting social and political configuration of a society will determine how that society responds to climate change disturbing this equilibrium. For example, a reduction in water availability may not always translate into a lower agricultural yield. This dynamic is likely to depend on the influence agriculturists have over the distribution of water resources and related policy tools. The nature and level of stresses will differ from society to society and will depend on how new winners and losers adjust as climatic changes alter the availability of resources.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Politics, Society, and Instability
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

158. Building a Biometric National ID: Lessons for Developing Countries from India's Universal ID Program

Author:
Alan Gelb and Julia Clark
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
India's Universal ID program seeks to provide a unique identity to all 1.2 billion residents. With the challenge of covering a very large population, India is is a unique testing ground for biometric identification technology. Its successes and potential failures will have far-reaching implications for other developing countries looking to create national identity systems. Already, the Indian case offers some important lessons: Using multiple biometrics helps maximize accuracy, inclusion, and security Supporting public-and private-sector applications creates incentives for use Competitive, standards-based procurement lowers costs Cardless design increases security and cuts costs but can be problematic if mobile networks are incomplete Establishing clear jurisdiction is essential Open technology is good, but proprietary systems and foreign providers may still be necessary.
Topic:
Security, Development, Emerging Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

159. Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil leaders or otherwise address legitimate Tamil and Muslim grievances is increasing ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for lasting peace. The administration, led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of Mahinda Rajapaksa, has refused to honour agreements with the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), broke n promises to world leaders and not implemented constitutional provisions for minimal devolution of power to Tamil-speaking areas of the north and east. Militarisation and discriminatory economic development in Tamil and Muslim areas are breeding anger and increasing pressure on moderate Tamil leaders. Tamil political parties need to remain patient and keep to their moderate course, while reaching out more directly to Muslims, Upcountry Tamils and Sinhalese. International actors should press the government more effectively for speedy establishment of an elected provincial council and full restoration of civilian government in the north, while insisting that it commence serious negotiations with elected Tamil representatives from the north and east.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

160. Stabilizing Pakistan through Police Reform

Author:
Hassan Abbas
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
This report seeks to provide a much-needed framework for police and law enforcement reform in Pakistan in the hope that the country's policy makers and political actors will incorporate police reform into the national agenda. It is encouraging to note that some political parties in Pakistan are now emphasizing the need for police reform in their political manifest.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Counterinsurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia