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51. Indian Elections 2004: An Early Preview

Author:
Pramit Mitra and Navin Vij
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
With five states scheduled to go to polls this fall, political activity is moving into high gear in India. The state elections will provide a good barometer of popular sentiment toward the government and are being treated as a 'test run' for the national elections due in 2004. The state elections will largely determine how the major contenders deal with the volatile issue of Hindu nationalism. How relations with Pakistan figure in the election depends largely on the outcome of current India-Pakistan peace efforts. But the key issue to watch is the ability of the current ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress party, its principal opponent, to hold together a coalition. This will not only be central to their electoral strategies, it will also determine the next government's freedom of action in making national policy.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

52. Can India and Pakistan Seize the Moment?

Author:
Teresita Schaffer and Paul A. Longo
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Two months after Indian prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's offer to extend “the hand of friendship” to neighboring Pakistan, the two countries are exchanging ambassadors and have begun restoring transport links, but discussions on their underlying dispute have yet to take shape. The next few months provide a crucial opportunity to begin a serious peace effort. Should this window of time pass by without progress, however, internal politics in both countries may rule out another try for a year or two.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Middle East

53. The Changing Face of Russia-South Asia Relations

Author:
Kavita Sangani and Teresita C. Schaffer
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Russia is broadening its relations with South Asia, as illustrated in the recent visits by Pakistan's President Musharraf to Russia and Russia's President Putin to India. Russia's long-standing ties with India are still driven by important defense links and shared hopes to create a multipolar world. Both countries are trying to breathe new life into their much-diminished economic relationship. Russia's new interest in Pakistan is driven largely by concerns about Islamic extremism and Central Asia. At a time when Russia's priorities are to a large extent internal, South Asia is a relatively accessible area for engaging in global geopolitics, but Russia is unlikely to become a major player in India- Pakistan diplomacy in the next few years.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and Asia

54. The HIV/AIDS Crisis in India

Author:
Mandavi Mehta
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India is poised on the verge of a sharp escalation of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with profound consequences for the state's society, economy and polity. This crisis will not affect India alone. In an increasingly interconnected world, the effects of such an epidemic will be globally felt, both directly in terms of the spread of infection, and indirectly in terms of the overall security and economic and political health of the region.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and South Asia

55. Opportunity Lost? Indian Budget 2003–2004

Author:
Amir Ahmad and Teresita C. Schaffer
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India's budget for fiscal year 2003–2004 will make some contribution to short-term growth but continues the piecemeal approach to economic policy apparent in the last two budgets. With four key state elections during the first half of 2003 and national elections due in 2004, we can expect India's economic policy to muddle through rather than taking bold initiatives. India's growth, under these circumstances, will depend largely on the weather and on a few major investment decisions, and it is not likely to surge ahead in the immediate future.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia

56. India-Pakistan Trade: Creating Constituencies for Peace

Author:
Kavita Sangani
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan is extraordinarily low—less than 1 percent of their global trade. Their volatile political relationship has overwhelmed attempts to encourage trade between the two countries, and has also impacted economic integration in the South Asian region as a whole. There are both political and economic obstacles to expanding trade between the two countries. Greater economic co-operation could, however, provide mutual economic benefits, such as lower prices for consumers, much-needed revenue for the governments, and cost-effective gas import to India via Pakistan. Perhaps most importantly, it could generate new linkages between the two business communities, thereby nurturing constituencies for peace in the region.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, and India

57. The Role of Hindutva in Indian Politics

Author:
Mandavi Mehta
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) incumbent Narendra Modi in the Gujarat state elections of 2002 has left the BJP riding a new high, while the Congress Party struggles to define itself in opposition. With upcoming assembly elections in eight of India's states, this year could be a defining one for both parties, as well as for the country. The larger question underlying the analysis of electoral politics is the future of Hindutva - a fundamentalist socio-political ideology that asserts a unifying Hindu culture for all Indians - and its implications for India's multi-religious population.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Gujarat

58. Dividing Papua: How Now To Do It

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A presidential instruction (Inpres) issued in January 2003 to divide Papua, Indonesia's easternmost province, into three parts has done more to create tension and turmoil there than any government action in years. The instruction undercuts a special autonomy law passed by the parliament in November 2001 that assumed the province to be a single territorial unit, and it has thrown Papua's administrative status into legal limbo. It undermines moderate intellectuals who saw special autonomy as a way of strengthening Papuan institutions and encouraging independence supporters to work within the Indonesian state. It has infuriated many Papuans, pro-independence and pro-autonomy alike, who have a deep attachment to Papua as a single political unit with a distinct history and who see the decree as a divide-and-rule tactic by Jakarta. All major religious leaders in the province have come out against it.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

59. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

60. Sri Lanka: Continuing Negotiations by Other Means

Author:
Bidisha Biswas
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) pulled out of peace negotiations with the Sri Lankan government last March, putting even more stress on an already fragile peace process. Negotiations have continued, however, with a new effort to define an interim governing arrangement for the largely Tamil north and east of the country. Both sides are scrambling to show that the process can make a difference in the daily lives of residents and that they are committed to success. Nevertheless, one should not expect a speedy or smooth resolution of the conflict.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia