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21. India: Meeting Energy Needs for Development While Addressing Climate Change

Author:
Radhika Khosla
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India is undergoing structural urban and economic transitions and has set ambitious policy targets to meet its rising energy needs for development. Expanding coal and renewables are two important pillars of this undertaking and, since 2008, climate protection is of increasing concern. India’s international engagements reflect these motivations of both energy security and climate change, where India is increasingly engaging in transfer of clean and efficient energy technologies to developing countries like itself.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Economic growth, and Urban
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

22. The Blind Men and the Elephant: Making Sense of China's One Belt One Road Initiative

Author:
Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
China’s One Belt One Road Initiative has virtually been a lightning rod for divisive debate and a polarised narrative since it was announced in 2013. For India, it has been the proverbial elephant in the room, as it awkwardly swings between willful pretence and wishful erasure. The policy brief looks at the clues this initiative could offer on the likely drivers of China’s economic diplomacy in the region. There could be three signals for India to watch out for. A clear pointer is the growing role of domestic determinants in setting the direction and pace of China’s regional economic engagement. Another pointer could be China’s role in shaping and defining Asia’s new institutional financial architecture. Lastly, the initiative could be a signal of how China is likely to engage with the larger questions of benefit sharing, trade-offs and the allocation of risks and burdens in subregional Asia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economic growth, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

23. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Road to Development and its Challenges

Author:
Mubeen Adnan and Bushra Fatima
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
On the world map, Pakistan and China being the neighboring states are inclined to develop and strengthen their relations with each other. These two states can be called as the good neighbors who can assist each other during the time of crisis. Both countries have had always a welcoming attitude towards each other in different situations due to which right from their independence till today in the 21st century, they are cooperative, supportive, encouraging, and friendly states among the other states of the world. This article is based on the fact that apart from the diplomatic, cultural relations, Pakistan and China are making great attempts and efforts for building viable economic relations with each other. It is also to see that how much these two would be beneficial in their economic interests by making the Gawadar project in their journey of making progress in economic capabilities. What challenges are being faced by these states in terms of the economic corridor. It is assumed that However, through this macro-level economic project both Pakistan and China would lead up to reach their destinations along with the attainment of their national interests.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

24. The Curious Case of GDP Growth

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), the custodian of Indian statistics, has faced a lot of questioning after the release of the new GDP series with 2011-12 as base. The RBI, Ministry of Finance, IMF, several credit rating agencies have all questioned the validity of the revisions. Some analysts like Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley have gone as far as to assert that these revisions if not corrected will make Indian statics as suspect as Chinese GDP data in the past. This will be a real pity. The extent of the revisions is shown in Table 1 below. With the new base year of 2012-13, GDP growth in FY 14 (2013-14) has been revised upwards to 6.6% at factor cost and a whopping 6.9% at market prices. This represents about 2% increase in GDP growth over the earlier estimate of 5%. Surely, such a large scale revision will or should significantly affect the understanding of the underlying economic phenomenon and lead to a marked policy shift. Contrary to what Surjit S Bhalla (SSB) would have us believe, not even the government is taking the revised estimates seriously enough as reflected in a lack of any change in policy direction.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Economy, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

25. Macroeconomic Update: Early Signs of Rise in Investment

Author:
Geetima Das Krishna and Rajiv Kumar
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Economic recovery remains fragile on the back of a weak consumption demand. Sustained high growth will be achieved only with an upturn in the investment cycle. The government seems to have understood the importance of pump-priming the capex cycle directly through higher public capital expenditure and front loading the expenditure. While private investment remains muted due to stressed corporate balance sheets, weak external and domestic demand prospects and commercial banks’ cautious approach to expanding credit, there are some early signs that the private investment cycle is likely to turn around in the next six to nine months.
Topic:
Government, Economic growth, Banks, Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

26. Macroeconomic Update: Indian Exports: Loss of Global Competitiveness

Author:
Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India’s exports have declined for six consecutive monthssince December 2014 with an average decline of 13.85% yoy. The decline was broad-based. Even exports of Manufactured goods trended lower during this time and failed to compensate for the fall in nominal value of commodity exports, which declined due to a huge erosion of global commodity and oil prices. India’s exports seem to have become more reliant on global commodity prices in recent years. In line with global crude oil prices, India’s monthly petroleum exports that peaked in July’14 at $7 billion shrunk to mere $2.4 billion in May 2015, declining at an average of 52% since the start of the year. Iron ore exports having peaked at $509.5 million in December 2011 moved from $129.5 million in April 2014 to $10 million in May 2015. It is instructive to take a longer term perspective of export performance (Please see Chart I below). Average export growth hasremained almoststagnantsince January 2012 after a sharp bounce back from the collapse in the first and second quarters of 2009, induced by the global financial crisis. Export growth since October 2011 (50 months) is much lower than the robust 20% average clocked during the seven year period of April 2002- March 2009. (marginally lower than the 23% rate of growth assumed for the five year period of 2015-16 to 2020-21 in the Foreign Trade Policy announced in early 2015).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economic growth, Commodities, Exports, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Markets