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1. From Rebel Governance to Institutionalization? Prospects for the Taliban and Afghanistan

Author:
Vito Morisco
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Intra-Taliban fragmentation, based on tribal, factional, ideological and structural fault lines, represents a major challenge to the transition from a polycentric and anti-centralist structure to a unified movement; the fragile balance between the political center in Kabul and the powerbrokers in the periphery, namely Kandahar, represents a key challenge. Women’s rights and girls’ education remain sensitive topics for the Taliban to the extent that the more pragmatic figures push for lifting the ban, the less Hibatullah will grant concessions in order to assert his authority vis-à-vis his critics. Taliban’s ban on secondary education for girls is unique in the world, thus clearly implying internal power dynamics rather than religious motivations. An intellectual struggle over the IEA’s constitutional design has started among main factional groups and Chief Justice Haqim Haqqani’s book “The Islamic Emirate and Its System” (2022) constitutes the first political manifesto about what an Islamic Emirate is and how to run one. The movement has adopted a pragmatic attitude towards the outside world based on the principles of neutrality, non-interference, sovereignty and respect for the international order, but factionalism might cause an inconsistent foreign policy. In the short-term, brutal counterterrorism measures might prove effective in decapitating Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)’s leadership but, in the long term, indiscriminate violence could alienate Salafi communities and the young urban generation on university campuses. The Taliban and al-Qaeda (AQ) are bound by bay’ah (religious oath of loyalty) but tensions and mistrust have emerged since the Doha Agreement.
Topic:
Governance, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

2. Global threat landscape 2022

Author:
Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Three trends will characterise the evolving global terror threat landscape in 2022. First, the cascading implications of the return of the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance to Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Second, the diffusion of the Islamic State threat from the Levant, notably from Iraqi-Syrian theatre. Third, the online surge of extremist and violent content especially of Islamist and Far Right entities on servers in North America and Europe mobilising and radicalizing especially youth. With lockdowns, partial lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, the challenges facing government security forces - military, law enforcement and intelligence surged and both in resource allocation for training and mobility for operations hampered their performance and efficacy. The focus on humanitarian challenges by governments during the pandemic was ably exploited by threat groups to expand their support bases or capture territory. On the other hand, a range of ideological and material threats manifested in 2021. Some will institutionalise both in the physical and digital spaces in 2022. With radicalisation and reciprocal radicalisation of Islamists and Far Right threat groups, their networks, cells and personalities will stage attacks.
Topic:
Taliban, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Islamism, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Syria

3. August 2022 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Madeline Field, Andrew Watkins, Don Rassler, and Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
One year ago, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, raising concerns that they would again provide al-Qa`ida with a safe haven. Soberingly, in the months before his death in a U.S. airstrike at the end of July, al-Qa`ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was releasing videos encouraging global terror, while living in a salubrious neighborhood of Kabul under the apparent protection of the Haqqani Taliban. This special issue of CTC Sentinel focuses on evolving dynamics relevant to the terrorism threat landscape one year into Taliban rule. In the feature article, Andrew Watkins takes a deep look at the Taliban’s first year in power. He writes: “Until the subtle, almost imperceptible attempts to nudge the needle on controversial issues within the movement gain more momentum, the Taliban’s emphasis on policing public life—and most critically, keeping women out of it—is likely to continue. And given this dynamic, al-Zawahiri’s killing under sanctuary in Kabul may confront the Taliban with a greater obligation to shore up their legitimacy among jihadi circles than to fall in line with international expectations on counterterrorism.” Our interview is with Edmund Fitton-Brown, the outgoing coordinator of the ISIL/Al-Qaida/Taliban Monitoring Team at the United Nations, who argues that a key determinant of the future international terror threat will be the degree to which the Taliban inhibit al-Qa`ida from launching attacks with fingerprints that lead directly back to Afghanistan. Don Rassler and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi evaluate who may be next in line to lead al-Qa`ida. They write: “The decision that al-Qa`ida makes could end up strengthening the group and al-Qa`ida’s status as a global brand. It could also, like someone pulling a loose thread, facilitate a greater unraveling of al-Qa`ida and its network of formally aligned regional affiliate partners.” Tore Hamming and Abdul Sayed assess the evolving threat posed by al-Qa`ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), writing, “it appears that with Taliban-run Afghanistan offering it a platform for regional expansion, AQIS is pivoting its focus to other parts of the South Asia region. Having set its eyes particularly on India and the contested Kashmir region, AQIS is currently pushing out targeted propaganda to recruit new operatives and to instigate new insurgencies in the region.” Nishank Motwani looks at the lessons learned for countering violent extremism in Afghanistan based on a survey of how former governing elites saw the violent extremism problem set in Afghanistan before the Taliban takeover.
Topic:
Taliban, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, India, and United States of America

4. FIVE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE ASSASSINATION OF AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI

Author:
Rebecca Best, Debra Leiter, and Simanti Lahiri
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
Last weekend, a US drone dropped two Hellfire missiles, killing Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on his balcony in the heart of Kabul. It was the first targeted killing of an Al Qaeda leader since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Here, contributors Rebecca Best, Debra Leiter, and Simanti Lahiri answer questions about what the strike might mean for Al Qaeda, US-Afghanistan relations, and more.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Drones, Assassination, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

5. Pakistan-US Engagement in War on Terror and Its Implications for Pakistan's Sovereignty: An Appraisal of Indian Ocean Geo-Politics during 2001-2020

Author:
Muhammad Iqbal Roy, Abdul Rehman, and Abu Bakar
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
On September 11, 2001, the World Trade Center collapsed and the Pentagon was attacked, triggering a sustained anti-terrorism campaign around the world. A number of cases have been reported where the war on terror has adversely affected the sovereignty of the state. The war on terror has been particularly devastating to Pakistan, one of the frontline states in this conflict. This war has compromised Pakistan's sovereignty a number of times. Specifically, this paper focuses on drone strikes by US forces in Pakistan's tribal areas, including attacks on Salallah checkpoints and the killing of Osama in Abbottabad without obtaining permission or sharing information from Pakistan. There is still a lack of trust between the United States and Pakistan, so it was the Pakistani government's responsibility to protect its regional interests before entering this war and deciding the scope of Allied Forces authority. The paper concludes that the US-led forces have undermined Pakistan's sovereignty. The document notes that intelligence cooperation, allies' trust, and the respect for national sovereignty of states are very important factors for the advancement of the antiterrorism effort.
Topic:
NATO, Sovereignty, Al Qaeda, Geopolitics, War on Terror, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, United States of America, and Indian Ocean

6. The Killing of Al-Zawahiri and the Future of Al-Qaeda

Author:
Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the afternoon of 1 August, Joe Biden gave a speech from the White House confirming the killing of Al-Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in Afghanistan. According to senior sources from the administration, Zawahiri was killed by “a precise tailored airstrike” conducted at around 06:30 am local time in the Sherpur neighbourhood of Kabul.[1] The strike was carried out via two Hellfire missiles (allegedly, two R9X missiles) fired from a drone.[2] The area in which the attack was carried out is particularly significant: the Sherpur neighbourhood is located in a deeply protected area of the capital, in which many Taliban leaders now live. Al-Zawahiri was reportedly killed in the house owned by a top aide to senior Taliban leader, Sirajuddin Haqqani.[3]
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Al Qaeda, and Ayman al-Zawahiri
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

7. Campaigning For Aafia: From ‘Twitter Storms” to Terrorism

Author:
Ariel Koch
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive, Ariel Koch analyzes the Salafi discourse behind the campaigns for the release of Aafia Siddiqui, the Pakistani-American prisoner who became a sort of jihadist icon, and at the center of the Texas synagogue hostage crisis in January 2022.
Topic:
Terrorism, Al Qaeda, Social Media, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and United States of America

8. War on Terrorism and its Impacts on Pakistan's Security

Author:
Huma Bilal, Azkaa Khan, and Mian Muhammad Azhar
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This article moves around the security of Pakistan and examined the incident of 9/11 and counter-terrorism strategies of civil-military during the war on terror. This study tells us that big attacks increase terrorism. After 9/11 some countries actively supported America in the war against terrorism and faced its negative consequences. Terrorism is a serious issue in the world. Many countries have taken serious actions against this evil. Pakistan faces many security challenges in the war against terrorism. This article is based on qualitative research techniques and secondary data. The massive lesson here is that the decision-making process should not be one-sided otherwise it leads to serious consequences. Pakistan experienced the worst issues in the portfolio of security. This requires a serious action plan on border security. Establish the writ of the state and secure the people from all internal and external threats. Resolve the conflicts between hostile factors peacefully without compromising on rule of law.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

9. Reflections of the Rohingya in the Online Jihadi Propaganda

Author:
Ariel Koch
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of BeeHive, Ariel Koch analyzes the Jihadist propaganda directed to the Muslim population of Myanmar, including the social media discourse. One of the less familiar arenas of jihad is Myanmar (formerly Burma), a country known for the ongoing conflict between the government-backed Buddhist majority and the Rohingya Muslim minority in the Rahkine state (formerly known as Arakan). This ethno-religious conflict has gained worldwide attention following massacres and forced deportations led by Myanmar’s army against the Rohingya. Recently, the army overthrew the elected government, raising concern about the Rohingya’s fate. This conflict has also been reflected in the discourse of various Islamist and Salafi-Jihadist organizations, which try to radicalize Myanmar’s Muslims, or encourage Muslims to defend their coreligionists.Al-Qaeda was the first to address the situation.
Topic:
Al Qaeda, Social Media, Islamism, Jihad, and Rohingya
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

10. Taking al Qaeda Seriously in Afghanistan: Policy Options for the United States

Author:
Hannan Hussain
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite limited numerical strength, al Qaeda exercises sufficient leverage over contending Taliban factions and continues to cultivate an enduring interest in attacking U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan. To break the al Qaeda-Taliban nexus, Washington must upgrade its verification metrics, and initiate COVID-19 recovery assistance that limits al Qaeda’s influence-building in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, South Asia, North America, and United States of America