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91. Venezuela’s Tinfoil “Revolution”

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
After forty years of politics as usual, Venezuela has suddenly become an object of curiosity to the world’s press. The reason is President Hugo Chávez, a forty-six-year-old former lieutenant colonel who first came to the attention of Venezuelans in 1992 when he and a group of other junior officers attempted to overthrow the government of President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Amnestied by Pérez’s successor, Chávez began a political career of his own, and in 1998, running as the candidate of the so-called Fifth Republic Revolutionary Movement (MVR), he was elected by a decisive majority. Two and a half years later, he is still an enigma—to Venezuelans, to the United States, and to everyone else. Given the centrality of his country to the oil producers’ cartel and, even more, given the current dependence of the United States on Venezuelan oil, he merits a closer look.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Natural Resources, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

92. Latin Democracy and Its (Increasing) Discontents

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Though summer is still with us in the northern hemisphere, Latin America languishes deep in the winter of its discontent. Ten years after the international scene was transformed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war, many Latin Americans have become disillusioned with their role in the new world order. The principal problem is that in spite of vigorous, in some cases drastic, market reforms, most of the region’s economies are in the doldrums. More to the point, in spite of a significant return of foreign investment to the area in the early 1990s, the number of Latin Americans living in poverty has increased. Public services have deteriorated or in some cases even disappeared. And crime is rampant everywhere, even in cities such as Buenos Aires, where until ten years ago inhabitants boasted-with reason-that their streets were safer at 3 a.m. than those of New York or Los Angeles in daytime.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democracy, and Investment
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

93. Argentina Votes–but for What?

Author:
Mark Falcoff
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
On Sunday, October 14, Argentines went to the polls to culminate what must surely have been the most ideological, hard-fought, and potentially decisive legislative election in their country’s history. At stake were all seventy-two seats in Argentina’s senate (chosen for the first time by popular vote[1]) and half of those in the Chamber of Deputies. What made the exercise particularly fraught with political significance was the fact that—coming as it did in the third year of a deep recession—the outcome was bound to be unfavorable to President Fernando de la Rúa, now midway through his four-year term. Given the parlous economic indicators—a near record 16 percent unemployment, laggard or negative economic growth for many months, drastic cuts in social spending with apparently more to come—the fact that the opposition Peronist Party won control of the senate and a plurality in the lower house can hardly be considered a surprise. But more serious still was the fact that, with few exceptions, candidates from the president’s own Radical Civic Union (and its coalition partner) ran against him with equal, if not greater, zeal. To the extent that the election was a plebiscite on de la Rúa’s stewardship, the vast majority voted “no.” What it voted for, however, is far from clear.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

94. In Focus: Bolivia: Eradicating Democracy

Author:
George Ann Potter and Linda Farthing
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
In September 2000, Bolivia, South America's poorest country, was rocked by a series of civilian protests, including roadblocks throughout the country. Unionists, teachers, peasant coca farmers, and others have demanded that the Bolivian and U.S. governments stop trying to completely eradicate coca growing and cease construction of three new military bases in the Chapare region. Among the other demands, protesters also want the government to improve alternative development programs in the coca growing region. In mid-October, the two sides reached a 19-point “truce”, but protesters vowed to reinstate the roadblocks in 30 days if the government did not adhere to the the agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and Bolivia

95. In Focus: Peru: Democracy

Author:
Coletta A. Youngers
Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Since taking office in 1990, President Fujimori has concentrated power in his own hands, greatly strengthened the role of the armed forces and SIN, and thwarted political opposition through bribery and intimidation. The recent Peruvian elections failed to meet even the most minimal international standards for a free and fair process, and Fujimori embarked upon an unconstitutional third term, which left the country deeply polarized. Fujimori's decision to call for new elections and dismantle SIN is an important step toward putting Peru back on the path to democratization; however, the situation remains very tense and the position of the military and intelligence services uncertain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, South America, Latin America, and Peru

96. Foreign Policy In Focus: Colombia in Crisis

Author:
Carlos Salinas
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Violence and warfare in Colombia are often blamed on the drug trade, but the roots run much deeper. The overwhelming majority of victims are noncombatant civilians. Since 1987, more than 35,000 noncombatant civilians have been murdered or have “disappeared.” Despite rich natural resources, Colombia's wealth is unevenly distributed, with some sectors of the population in deep misery.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

97. Colombia at the Crossroads

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the spring session of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of strategic surprise in Colombia. After a presentation on four potential scenarios that may face Colombia (see next page), Schlesinger Working Group core members and Colombia specialists examined the key factors driving events in this conflict-scarred country, as well as possible outcomes for current political initiatives. Among other issues, the participants touched on the range and dynamics of the present conflict, its effects on Colombian institutions, the country's neighbors, as well as on the role of powerful outside players, primarily the United States. Upon defining these key factors, participants identified a broad outline for future policy towards Colombia, which would safeguard key U.S. interests, defined as an end to the conflict, political and economic stability in the region, and the suppression of the drug trade. The following report is based on the informal and general findings of the group and is therefore not a consensus document.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

98. Colombia Alert: U.S. Counternarcotics Policy Toward Colombia

Author:
Myles Frechette
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
More than 80 percent of the cocaine in the United States comes from Colombia. Substantial amounts of the heroin seized in the United States are also from Colombia. For the United States the impact of illegal drugs is devastating, not only in terms of human misery and lives lost, but also the billions it costs to combat this illegal trade; house the prison population of drug offenders; to provide health care to drug users; and sustain the loss of productivity in the economy. One estimate puts the dollar cost at $100 billion a year. This is a staggering amount, even in an $8 trillion economy. The cost to Colombia, however, is disproportionately higher. Consider the corruption and economic distortion $5 billion of illicit profits causes in Colombia, whose GDP is about $90 billion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Colombia, South America, and Latin America

99. First Steps Toward a Constructive U.S. Policy in Colombia

Author:
Bob Graham and Brent Scowcroft
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In November 1999, the Council on Foreign Relations and Inter-American Dialogue established an independent task force to review and offer recommendations on U.S. policy toward Colombia. The co-chairs of the task force have decided to issue this interim report to make an impact on deliberations in Congress, as well as respond to an immediate opportunity to shape the current debate about U.S. policy. We plan to publish a final report in June 2000 that will provide a more comprehensive and systematic examination of U.S. policy toward Colombia. That report will, for example, discuss the wider challenge of addressing a serious drug problem in which many countries—the United States includedare involved, and which calls for shared responsibility and joint action. On January 11, the Clinton administration put forward a bill that seeks an "emergency supplemental appropriation" to provide some $950 million in assistance to Colombia this fiscal year, and a total of $1.6 billion through fiscal year 2001. The administration's bill was formulated in the context of Plan Colombia, a mutually agreed framework between the Colombian and U.S. governments. The plan identifies the country's critical needs and makes clear that the Andean nation's interrelated problems—powerful insurgent and paramilitary forces, massive narcotrafficking, widespread human rights abuses, and deep economic recession—have reached crisis levels. It further indicates that the Colombian government is prepared to tackle these problems, and is committed to addressing all of them together. While the Colombian government is prepared to contribute $4 billion of the $7.5 billion the plan will cost, Colombia has also asked for immediate help from the international community. In response, the Clinton administration has put together a two-year aid package that emphasizes equipment and training for the military and police to carry out counter-narcotics operations. Other elements of Plan Colombia are supported to a much lesser degree. In focusing the aid package in this way, the administration recognizes the close linkages that have developed between Colombia's illegal narcotics industry and the country's insurgent and paramilitary forces. As such, it deals with key concerns for both the United States and Colombia. Security assistance aimed at reducing drug production and trafficking is but a piece of a broader effort that seeks to extend legitimate authority in the country. For this reason—coupled with the fact that such support would signal strong US commitment to help a troubled country at a critical moment—we urge Congress to move quickly and approve the administration's aid package. We also suggest that Congress make two adjustments in the proposed package: strengthen a regional approach to the drug problem, and improve Colombia's economic situation by enhancing its trade benefits. Although it will make a contribution, the administration's aid proposal responds only partially to the formidable policy challenge posed by Colombia. An effective package must get beyond the current emphasis on fighting drugs. The main emphasis should, rather, be on helping the Colombian government strengthen its capacity to protect its citizens and effectively exercise control and authority over its territory. But a lack of consensus within the U.S. government has made it difficult to focus on that overall objective in U.S. policy toward Colombia. As currently formulated, the bill is an essential first step, but more is required, both from Washington and Bogotá. With its proposal, the administration has affirmed that the stakes for the United States are high. We agree. We therefore urge the White House to develop an integrated, long-term plan that has a broader focus than merely the drug problem. The administration and Congress must recognize that a serious policy response to the challenges posed by Colombia implies a U.S. commitment to the country beyond the two-year period of the proposed bill. A successful approach will require high-level, sustained engagement, supported by a bipartisan majority in Congress, during at least a half dozen years. As part of a longer-term policy, the main focus in the security area should be on reforming Colombia's armed forces and making them more professional, thereby establishing the conditions under which the United States could provide effective military assistance. Training is particularly crucial to upgrade the military capability of the armed forces and improve their human rights performance. Professionalization would also enhance the Colombian government's moves toward a political solution to the conflict, and reinforce efforts to deal more successfully with both insurgent and paramilitary forces. Under no circumstances should U.S. combat troops be deployed in Colombia for military intervention. Levels of support above those reflected in the current bill should be considered for other critical areas in addition to security. Extension of current preferential trade arrangements for Colombia should benefit its economy. Special efforts are needed to improve the country's judicial system and help Colombia strengthen its ability to undertake alternative development strategies. The United States should encourage a multilateral approach, working in concert with Colombia's hemispheric partners, European friends, and relevant multilateral institutions. A more balanced U.S. policy (that is, one less narrowly focused on drugs) would make other governments and institutions more inclined to join in a common effort. Finally, Colombia's problems demand strong, focused leadership from Bogotá that reflects a Colombian commitment and national consensus behind a set of realistic policies. The United States can and should respond to Colombian initiatives in accordance with its own national interests. It cannot, however, solve Colombia's problems.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, Colombia, South America, Latin America, and North America

100. Social Funds in Stabilization and Adjustment Programmes

Author:
Giovanni Cornia
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Well before the introduction of adjustment-related Social Funds (SFs), many developing countries had developed a variety of safety nets comprising food subsidies, nutrition interventions, employment-based schemes and targeted transfers. Middle-income and a few low-income countries had also achieved extensive coverage in the field of social insurance. In countries committed to fighting poverty, these programmes absorbed considerable resources (2-5 per cent of GDP, excluding social insurance) and had a large impact on job creation, income support and nutrition: for instance, in 1983, Chile's public works programme absorbed 13 per cent of the labour force. Their ability to expand quickly depended on a permanent structure of experienced staff, good portfolios of projects, clear management rules, adequate allocation of domestic resources, supply-driven execution and, with the exception of food subsidies, fairly good targeting.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and Chile