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51. Peace in Venezuela: Is There Life after the Barbados Talks?

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The standoff between Venezuela’s government and opposition has reached a worrying juncture, with negotiations falling apart, side deals emerging and regional states rolling out new sanctions on Caracas. Resuming the talks is the safest path to an exit from the country’s ever deepening crisis. What’s new? At least for now, Norwegian-facilitated negotiations to end Venezuela’s presidential showdown have collapsed. Meanwhile, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has forged an agreement with minority opposition parties. Together with regional powers’ decision to define Venezuela as a threat to hemispheric security, these developments could complicate a resolution of the crisis. Why does it matter? Failure to restore political stability and socio-economic well-being in Venezuela fuels South America’s worst-ever refugee crisis, risks a low-intensity internal conflict, propagates tensions across the region and threatens to trigger military clashes with neighbouring Colombia. What should be done? Allies of the two sides should press them to overcome their reluctance and return to the negotiating table, possibly under a new format, where they should show the necessary flexibility to reach a workable agreement.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

52. Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes. What’s new? Former commanders of the demobilised Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced the creation of a new dissident faction from a location seemingly close to the Colombia-Venezuela border, triggering accusations from Bogotá that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government is sheltering and supporting the group. Why does it matter? Already at loggerheads over Maduro’s legitimacy, the Colombian and Venezuelan governments could stumble into conflict along a 2,200km border crossed daily by thousands of migrants and exploited by non-state armed and criminal groups. A major Venezuelan troop deployment and Colombia’s invocation of a mutual defence pact have heightened the risk. What should be done? The emergence of the new FARC dissident faction underscores that the Colombian government should redouble efforts to reintegrate former fighters into civilian life. Colombia and Venezuela should work to repair their diplomatic rupture and, in the meantime, establish communication channels to mitigate the risk of misunderstandings over border violence.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Non State Actors, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela

53. Construction of an Extended Environmental and Economic Social Accounting Matrix from a Practitioner’s Perspective

Author:
Onil Banerjee, Martin Cicowiez, Renato Vargas, and Mark Horridge
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
In 2014, the United Nations published the first International Standard for environmental economic statistics, known as the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA).. As more countries adopt and implement the SEEA, the availability of consistent environmental and economic information increases the need for analytical tools that can use this data to respond to policy relevant questions. In this paper, we present a workflow to develop an environmentally extended social accounting matrix, which can serve as the basic database for the development of environmentally-extended computable general equilibrium models. To illustrate, and given its comprehensive implementation of the SEEA, we apply this workflow to the Guatemalan case and the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform.
Topic:
Economics, United Nations, Basic Data, Accountability, Economic Policy, and Statistics
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, Central America, Guatemala, and Global Focus

54. Humanitarian Reality in Columbia: Saving Lives and Safeguarding the Future of Peace

Author:
Francisca De Castro
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:
ince the 1960s, Colombia has been faced with a situation of armed violence that has plunged the country in insecurity and crisis. Groups of farmers had created self-defense militias, which later turned into guerrilla groups, over agrarian disputes with the government. The violence turned into a conflict between state forces, paramilitary groups, and guerrilla groups such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), amongst others. In 2016, the Colombian government and the FARC signed a peace agreement which put an end to more than 60 years of civil war. However, three years later, the humanitarian reality in Colombia is still far from resolved. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that the humanitarian situation in Colombia had in fact decayed in 2018. According to the ICRC, this was a consequence of the five remaining armed conflicts with other groups that were running in parallel, and the ineffective state response to these conflicts in certain rural communities, such asthe Catatumbo and the Cauca regions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Violence, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

55. Stormclouds and Solutions: Anticipating and Preparing for Climate Change and Security Risks in the Caribbean

Author:
Shiloh Fetzek and Oliver Leighton-Barrett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
A region long-tested by both extreme weather events and illicit economic activity, the Caribbean has developed abundant expertise in climate science and disaster resilience. It also has many underlying governance and security challenges which may amplify each other as climate impacts intensify. In this policy brief authors Shiloh Fetzek and Lt. Commander US Navy (ret.) Oliver Leighton-Barrett identify the key regional security risks exacerbated by climate change, which include: 1. economic contraction, violence and criminal activity; 2. disaster impacts and political repercussions; 3. food and water insecurity, damage to livelihoods and social unrest; and 4. Central and South American security deterioration impacting on the Caribbean. Anticipating and addressing these challenges by integrating security cooperation and climate resilience initiatives could support existing risk management structures and advance long-term economic and socio-political stability in the Caribbean.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Caribbean

56. Terrorism in the Political Landscape of Post-peace Accord in Colombia / El terrorismo en el escenario del post-acuerdo en Colombia

Author:
Olmer Muñoz Sánchez, Julie Pontvianne, and Sebastián Álvarez Posada
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In Colombia, terrorism is not a new threat to national security. Terrorism historically has been closely linked to the existence of an internal armed conflict and to the evolution of the “method of action” (método de acción) carried out by its main and secondary actors (guerrilla fighters, drug traffickers, militiamen). This article aims to analyze the different types of terrorism that have existed in Colombia as well as the way they have affected security and, finally, present its evolution in the national political context, from the signing of the most recent peace accord to the present.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

57. Forced to Leave: Determinants of Slow-Onset Displacement in Colombia

Author:
Helen Deacon and Maximilian Gorgens
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In Colombia, the ongoing armed conflict has had severe effects on internal migration and displacement. While occasions of mass displacement usually attract significant attention, little is known about why forced displacement in Colombia primarily occurs gradually over time and in smaller groups. To address the apparent research gap, this paper analyses the consequences and mechanisms of forced slow-onset displacement and focuses on the interactions between "violence," "food security," and "climate change" as its determinants.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

58. The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence of Educational Persistence and the "Great Gatsby Curve" in Brazil

Author:
Tharcisio Leone
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the variation in intergenerational educational mobility across the Brazilian states based on Markov transition matrixes and univariate econometric techniques. The analysis of the national household survey (PNAD-2014) confirms a strong variation in mobility among the 27 federative units in Brazil and demonstrates a significant correlation between mobility and income inequality. In this sense, this work presents empirical evidence for the existence of the "Great Gatsby curve" within a single country: states with greater income disparities present higher levels of persistence in educational levels across generations. Finally, I investigate one specific mechanism behind this correlation – namely, whether higher income inequality might lead to a lower investment in human capital among children from socially vulnerable households. The paper delivers robust and compelling results showing that children born into families where the parents have not completed primary education have a statistically significant reduction in their chance of completing the educational system if they live in states with a higher level of income inequality.
Topic:
Education, Children, Inequality, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

59. The Amazon Wildfires and Environmental Conservation: What Can the EU do?

Author:
Helder Hermani
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Helder Hermani published a EU Monitor in which he focuses on the ways EU can contribute to the conservation of Amazon rainforests. He provides analysis and proposes 5 specific steps. The European Union is arguably the global power most devoted to the environmental conservation and combating climate change. However, isolated actions tend to prove ineffective in achieving these objectives. "The neoliberal policy oriented to private investments, coupled with the bulky military composition at the highest level of officials, has driven Brazil to pursue two goals in regards to international bodies: a permanent seat in the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the status of major non-NATO ally.“ "The EU [...] must make it easier for suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, consumers and public authorities to identify products from deforestation-free supply chains.
Topic:
Environment, Neoliberalism, Investment, Conservation, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe, South America, and Amazon Basin

60. Negotiating Venezuela’s future: First agreement, then elections

Author:
Mikael Wigell and Mikko Pyhala
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Venezuela needs a transition government with both pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro forces. Its function would be to renew the electoral institutions and negotiate a power-sharing agreement in order to lower the power stakes by protecting political minorities. Only then can presidential elections be held.
Topic:
Governance, Minorities, Elections, State Building, and Transition
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela