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1. Is Somalia about to replicate the Afghanistan scenario post-withdrawal of the "ATMIS” forces?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On February 10, 2024, the Gordon military base in Mogadishu was subjected to a terrorist attack by the jihadist Al-Shabab group. The attack resulted in the deaths of several officers performing training tasks for Somali forces, indicating a recent increase in the intensity of Al-Shabab's terrorist activity. This coincides with the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) announcement that it declared the completion of the second phase of withdrawal of its forces from Mogadishu in early February. The remaining stages, which are expected to be implemented by the end of this year, have been raising concerns about the possibility of a new Afghanistan scenario in the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

2. Environmental Peacemaking in Somalia: Integrated Climate and Conflict Analysis of the Newly Liberated Areas of Hirshabelle and Galmudug

Author:
Arthur Brochen, Mohamud Mohamed Khadar, Abdirashid Artan, Delphine Virnot, and Albert Martinez
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
This analysis assesses both the short and long-term impacts of environment- and climate-related security risks in the Newly Liberated Areas (NLA) of Somalia in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The analysis had the objectives of (1) understanding the pathways in which environmental and climate risks can affect conflict better and (2) developing actionable recommendations for environmental peacemaking and peacebuilding in these states of Somalia. This integrated climate and conflict analysis employed a methodology based on the conflict analysis guidance from the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the climate security guidance developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

3. Faltering Lion: Analyzing Progress and Setbacks in Somalia’s War against al-Shabaab

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Analysts have long understood the war against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate, as “unwinnable” and “[with] no end in sight.” Most have considered the group one of the largest and most sophisticated jihadist insurgencies on the planet while viewing Somalia, the state in which it was born and primarily operates, as a quintessential “failed state.” Yet in mid-2022, many analysts began to change their tune. Al-Shabaab began to suffer its most significant setbacks in a decade at the hands of a clan uprising in Somalia’s central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The uprising quickly received military support from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and some United States officials believe it constitutes Somalia’s Anbar Awakening. Meanwhile, Somali officials speak of this offensive, which they’ve now dubbed Operation Black Lion, as the long-awaited death blow against the group. Unfortunately, the pendulum started to swing back after al-Shabaab began regrouping and counterattacking in early 2023. As of September 2023, the Somali government is struggling to complete the offensive that began last year in central Somalia. All the while, the government promises to achieve ever more ambitious goals for defeating the group in its southern Somalian strongholds by the end of 2024. The question, then, is whether Somalia is really turning a page in the war against al-Shabaab, with the group’s defeat or meaningful degradation in sight for the first time in years, or if the FGS’s battlefield progress in 2022 was merely a short-lived setback for the terrorist group. In this report, I argue that the ongoing, if faltering, offensive against al-Shabaab reveals the dilemma of counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa: On the one hand, al-Shabaab is not invincible, and the group’s center of gravity—its ability to gain a modicum of acceptance or legitimacy from vulnerable Somali communities—has been exposed as fragile. On the other hand, Somalia’s perennial and myriad political disputes, as well as other issues like a lack of state capacity and rampant corruption, are preventing its federal and state governments from capitalizing on the opportunities available to them. Instead, Mogadishu, aware of its limited military capacity, is looking to the militaries of neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia to bear the brunt of its anticipated offensive into southern Somalia, even though these countries’ controversial interventions in Somalia over the years have catalyzed al-Shabaab’s formation and expansion. In any case, there appears to be little appetite from either country to engage in another offensive. Al-Shabaab, for its part, is counterattacking against government forces in central Somalia and looking to expand its operations in neighboring countries—in part to hinder those regional militaries’ potential participation in any forthcoming offensive. Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. I have drawn this report from insights I gained during a four-week trip to Kenya and Somalia in June 2023. Within Somalia, I traveled around the federal capital, Mogadishu, as well as the capitals of the states of Jubbaland, Galmudug, and Puntland, in the south, center, and north of the country respectively. I also traveled to the frontline town of Bar Sanguuni, near al-Shabaab–controlled territory in Jubbaland, and separately to Las Anod, a disputed city that both Somaliland and local clans have claimed and that is at the heart of a new regional conflict. Given the sensitivity of discussing security matters in Somalia, I have anonymized the details of interview subjects in almost all references.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Alliance, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

4. Ending the use of child soldiers

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, and Eric Oehlerich
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Mick Mulroy and Eric Oehlerich, Senior Fellows with MEI’s Defense & Security Program and the Co-founders of the Lobo Institute and End Child Soldiering, to discuss efforts to stop the recruitment and use of children in combat and rehabilitate former child soldiers. The use of child soliders is a widespread global problem that has a disproportionate impact on the broader Middle East, especially in Yemen, Syria, Sudan, and Somalia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Rehabilitation, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Sudan, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia

5. Preventing jihadist expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Dino Krause
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
During the first half of 2023, levels of jihadist violence increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Burkina Faso and Somalia, while remaining particularly high in eastern Congo (DRC), Mali, and Nigeria, which are only some of the most heavily affected countries across the continent. Jihadist groups also continue to seek access to new areas. Particularly concerning is the growing evidence of jihadist expansion from Burkina Faso into some of the Gulf of Guinea states, especially Benin and Togo. Although sub-Saharan Africa comprises a diverse set of countries and regions, some overall trends emerge. Two crucial factors that enable jihadist groups to gain a foothold, across various country-specific contexts, are poor local governance and governments’ human rights violations against civilians. Statistical evidence shows that jihadist groups are significantly more likely to expand to countries where these conditions are given. At the same time, once they have managed to establish themselves in a new context, there is often a circular dynamic: Jihadist presence tends to undermine the ability of governments to provide effective governance, and governments also tend to violate human rights in their attempts to quell jihadist violence. When engaging with local governments in sub-Saharan Africa, the EU and its Member States should therefore place particular emphasis on measures that address these dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Terrorism, European Union, and History
Political Geography:
Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Sub-Saharan Africa

6. The UN Environmental and Climate Adviser in Somalia

Author:
Jenna Russo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) was among the first special political missions to receive climate-related language in its mandate, reflecting Somalia’s acute vulnerability to the impact of climate change. In 2020, UNSOM also became the first mission to have an environmental and climate adviser deployed to help implement this mandate. The adviser’s work is structured around three pillars: Mainstreaming the environment and climate throughout the mission’s mandated areas of work; Coordinating UN agencies, government actors, and NGOs working on climate across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors; and Supporting the government in developing, funding, and coordinating its climate action plans and policies. This issue brief reviews the role of the environmental and climate adviser in Somalia, including their areas of work, successes, challenges, and opportunities for replication in other mission settings. Strong buy-in from both mission leaders and national and regional counterparts has facilitated the adviser’s ability to help the mission implement its mandate relating to climate change, environmental degradation, and other ecological challenges. Furthermore, the adviser has successfully helped to coordinate climate-related work, incorporate strategic analyses into climate-related risk assessments and responses, and liaise with local actors. The adviser has also faced challenges, including the broad scope of work tasked to a single person and the unique set of skills required, as well as the political contention surrounding the concept of climate security. The brief concludes by looking ahead to the growth of environmental and climate advisers in other UN missions and the importance of understanding and addressing interlinkages among climate, peace, and security as the impacts of climate change accelerate.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Peacekeeping, and UNSOM
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

7. Dangerous Delay 2: The cost of inaction

Author:
Emily Farr, Leah Finnegan, Joanna Grace, and Mathew Truscott
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2011, Somalia experienced a devastating famine that killed over a quarter of a million people. Afterwards, leaders in the region made a commitment to end drought emergencies by 2022. The international community sought to ensure that there would be no repeat of the failures that led to famine. Next time, the world would heed the warnings and act early to avoid the crisis. But despite various warnings and alarms over the past two years, the commitment to anticipatory action has proven half-hearted. We are once again responding too late and with too little to avert the crisis. In this follow-up to their 2012 briefing A Dangerous Delay, Oxfam and Save the Children, supported by the Jameel Observatory, examine what has changed and what has not in the humanitarian system since 2011. They explain how it must evolve in order to enable and fully fund anticipatory action. With the climate crisis set to deepen, the current system must change quickly in order to meet the challenges we face in the years ahead.
Topic:
Security, Famine, Governance, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

8. Turkey's Growing Role as a Security Actor in Somalia: Dynamics and Motivations

Author:
Abdurrahim Siradag
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Somalia has a special place in the foreign policy of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has been in power since November 2002. Turkey's relations with Somalia started to develop after the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Somalia on 19 August 2011, who was the prime minister at that time, to support Somalis affected by severe drought and civil war. After 2011, Turkey launched one of the largest humanitarian aid campaigns to Somalia. Turkey has not only developed a soft power policy in Somalia but also started to implement a hard power policy. In this respect, Turkey has been training hundreds of Somali soldiers and police in both Ankara and Mogadishu since 2012. At the same time, Turkey opened its largest military base abroad in Somalia in 2017. This research explores the reasons and dynamics behind Turkey's deepening of its security policy in Somalia and sheds light on what Turkey's security policy means for Somalia. The research argues that there is a combination of factors driving Turkey's security policy towards Somalia, including socio-cultural, economic, and geopolitical. This study examines Turkey's security policy with a holistic approach, using conceptual and theoretical perspectives.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and AKP
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, and Somalia

9. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:
Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

10. Spring 2022 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN SYRIAN REFUGEES IN LEBANON: “NEW COMMUNITY” IN LEBANON’S CONFESSIONAL POLITICAL SYSTEM ............................................................... 5 GRIGOR VARDANYAN RESHUFFLINGS WITHIN SYRIAN SECURITY SYSTEM IN 2019: DETERMING POLITICAL MOTIVES AND OBJECTIVES ...............................20 VERONIKA TOROSYAN UNPACKING THE CONCEPT OF NATIONALISM WITHIN RUSSIAN EURASIANISM ...................................................................................................... 27 GOR HOVHANNISYAN TURKEY’S EXPANSION IN EASTERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF SOMALIA. ............................................................................................................. .44 WORKSHOP ARMENIA-TURKEY: LESSONS AND REALITIES………………………………………………………………………..58 CONFERENCE GULF ARAB COUNTRIES AND THE ARMENIAN COMMUNITIES: CURRENT TRENDS AND ISSUES………………………………………………………………………….…61
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Domestic Politics, Syrian War, and Armenians
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, Lebanon, Syria, Somalia, and Gulf Nations