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21. Promoting diaspora investment in fragile settings: The case of Somalia

Author:
Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief analyses the extent to which diaspora investment can support economic development and livelihoods, with a particular focus on fragile settings. Using the case study of Somalia, the brief explores some of the main advantages and risks associated with this tool. On the one hand, diaspora investment can channel finance into productive activities in the diaspora’s country of origin, supporting the creation of revenue streams, while also generating returns for diaspora investors. On the other hand, particularly in fragile settings, these investments can also undermine social cohesion and even increase the likelihood of violent conflict, especially if they are channelled along identity lines. On the basis of this analysis, the brief offers the following recommendations to donor governments interested in promoting diaspora investment in Somalia and beyond: (i) to ensure effectiveness, donors should gather comprehensive, in-depth data on the needs and preferences of both potential investors in the diaspora and investees in the country of origin; (ii) to avoid exacerbating tensions and conflict, donors should be as inclusive and transparent as possible in their engagement with stakeholders, most notably in the selection of beneficiaries; (iii) any efforts to promote diaspora investment in fragile settings should be grounded in a thorough understanding of the specific context in which they are implemented, in order to understand both the economic and political implications of such investment.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Diaspora, Investment, and Fragility
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

22. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

23. The Challenges of Climate Financing in Conflict Contexts

Author:
Sagal Abshir
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:
The “Challenges of climate finance in conflict contexts” is a paper by Sagal Abshir, senior advisor to the Environmental Peacemaking Project in Somalia, supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Amidst a general global underfunding of climate action, fragile and conflict-affected states struggle to secure climate financing. This is the case even for countries where climate change exacerbates the impact of chronic war and poverty. Although the funding gap is known, climate finance flows are scarce and scattered to fragile and conflict-affected to adapt and mitigate lag behind what has been promised and what is needed. In the cases of Somalia and Yemen, which are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, it averaged only USD 2 per capita. More generally, the total annual global flows of climate-related finance averaged a little over USD 600B in 2019-2020 – only a third of the IPCC’s estimate of funding required to reach our climate targets – from which only 10 per cent is directed to climate adaptation. The challenges in preparing communities and governments in fragile and conflict-affected states for climate impacts call for a new imagination, new mechanisms, and mobilizing political commitment to ensure climate financing flows help people in these countries respond to climate risks. Other solutions are on the horizon: well-designed climate action can serve as an opportunity to consolidate peace. Lessons learned from pilot climate responses in war-torn countries demonstrated that climate adaptation could contribute to conflict prevention and resolution efforts, such as in the case of Sudan and Nepal. In this paper, Sagal Abshir explores the status of climate finance for the extremely fragile and climate-vulnerable countries of Somalia and Yemen. The author reviews the global climate financing landscape and some challenges of deploying climate financing resources in these contexts. Using Somalia and Yemen as case studies, the paper will take a closer look at how these two countries have fared; and conclude with some reflections and recommendations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Climate Finance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

24. Faltering Lion: Analyzing Progress and Setbacks in Somalia’s War against al-Shabaab

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Analysts have long understood the war against al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s East African affiliate, as “unwinnable” and “[with] no end in sight.” Most have considered the group one of the largest and most sophisticated jihadist insurgencies on the planet while viewing Somalia, the state in which it was born and primarily operates, as a quintessential “failed state.” Yet in mid-2022, many analysts began to change their tune. Al-Shabaab began to suffer its most significant setbacks in a decade at the hands of a clan uprising in Somalia’s central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The uprising quickly received military support from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), and some United States officials believe it constitutes Somalia’s Anbar Awakening. Meanwhile, Somali officials speak of this offensive, which they’ve now dubbed Operation Black Lion, as the long-awaited death blow against the group. Unfortunately, the pendulum started to swing back after al-Shabaab began regrouping and counterattacking in early 2023. As of September 2023, the Somali government is struggling to complete the offensive that began last year in central Somalia. All the while, the government promises to achieve ever more ambitious goals for defeating the group in its southern Somalian strongholds by the end of 2024. The question, then, is whether Somalia is really turning a page in the war against al-Shabaab, with the group’s defeat or meaningful degradation in sight for the first time in years, or if the FGS’s battlefield progress in 2022 was merely a short-lived setback for the terrorist group. In this report, I argue that the ongoing, if faltering, offensive against al-Shabaab reveals the dilemma of counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa: On the one hand, al-Shabaab is not invincible, and the group’s center of gravity—its ability to gain a modicum of acceptance or legitimacy from vulnerable Somali communities—has been exposed as fragile. On the other hand, Somalia’s perennial and myriad political disputes, as well as other issues like a lack of state capacity and rampant corruption, are preventing its federal and state governments from capitalizing on the opportunities available to them. Instead, Mogadishu, aware of its limited military capacity, is looking to the militaries of neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia to bear the brunt of its anticipated offensive into southern Somalia, even though these countries’ controversial interventions in Somalia over the years have catalyzed al-Shabaab’s formation and expansion. In any case, there appears to be little appetite from either country to engage in another offensive. Al-Shabaab, for its part, is counterattacking against government forces in central Somalia and looking to expand its operations in neighboring countries—in part to hinder those regional militaries’ potential participation in any forthcoming offensive. Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity. I have drawn this report from insights I gained during a four-week trip to Kenya and Somalia in June 2023. Within Somalia, I traveled around the federal capital, Mogadishu, as well as the capitals of the states of Jubbaland, Galmudug, and Puntland, in the south, center, and north of the country respectively. I also traveled to the frontline town of Bar Sanguuni, near al-Shabaab–controlled territory in Jubbaland, and separately to Las Anod, a disputed city that both Somaliland and local clans have claimed and that is at the heart of a new regional conflict. Given the sensitivity of discussing security matters in Somalia, I have anonymized the details of interview subjects in almost all references.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Alliance, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

25. CTC Sentinel: April 2023 Issue

Author:
Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, Marcel Plichta, Paul Cruickshank, and Lucas Webber
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The late General Wayne A. Downing, a former distinguished chair of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, used to tell his colleagues at the Center, “Who thinks wins.” In this month’s feature article, Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta argue that smarter counterterrorism in the Sahel, and across sub-Saharan Africa, can pay big dividends for the United States on the field of great power competition. They write that “the United States is at a critical juncture as it looks to adapt its counterterrorism mission. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Sahel region of Africa, where for the past decade, the United States has relied on France to serve as the counterterrorism lead. Those days are over, at least for now, and the United States is left attempting to balance its counterterrorism efforts in the frame of great power competition. However, too often these two strategic objectives are cast as zero-sum. In reality, U.S. counterterrorism in the Sahel, if appropriately reassessed, designed, and implemented, can generate real wins for the United States as it seeks to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Additionally, and most importantly, it can improve the prospects for stability and security for African states in desperate need of both.” Our interview is with two counterterrorism officials at the Catalan Police – Mossos d’Esquadra: Inspector Lluis Paradell Fernandez, head of the Central Analysis Unit, Intelligence and Counterterrorism Service, and Deputy Inspector Xavier Cortés Camacho, head of the Counterterrorism Central Area. They discuss lessons learned as a result of the 2017 Islamic State-inspired attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, the evolving threats Catalonia faces, and the importance of “a joined-up effort in working to prevent violent extremism.” Lucas Webber and Daniele Garofalo write that “the Islamic State’s leadership and central propaganda apparatus have been pushing to boost the Somalia branch’s profile, while pro-Islamic State-Somalia groups have been producing media content to help the movement’s message reach Somali, Amharic, Oromo, and Swahili speakers to boost fundraising, recruitment, and violent incitement efforts as well as to grow grassroot support in regions populated by these ethnolinguistic communities.” They argue that “these developments could have regional security implications if the Islamic State is able to strengthen the Somalia branch using these means. Bolstered transnational connections could enable violent incitement and attacks directed into neighboring countries.” Nodirbek Soliev examines digital terror financing by central Asian jihadis. He writes that “their online financing efforts tend to involve three stages. The first is the dissemination of fundraising propaganda and contacting prospective donors via online public accounts. The second is communication via encrypted messaging apps to identify a suitable mode of transaction and to provide security protocols. The third is the transaction itself. Understanding these mechanisms can help enhance relevant countries’ response strategies against terrorism financing risks.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Spain, North America, Somalia, Sahel, and United States of America

26. CTC Sentinel: January 2023 Issue

Author:
Heni Nsaibia, Caleb Weiss, Brian Dodwell, and Stig Jarle Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This issue focuses on Africa, the current epicenter of global jihadi terror. On January 18, 2023, the military junta in Burkina Faso demanded that France withdraw its troops from the country within a month, raising concerns the regime in Ouagadougou may be set to follow Mali in hiring the Wagner Group to help contain the worsening jihadi threat to their country. In the feature article, Héni Nsaibia and Caleb Weiss write that “there seems to be a very significant probability that the military government in Burkina Faso will indeed hire Wagner in the near future.” They assess that a future potential Wagner deployment to Burkina Faso would entrench Russian influence in the region, complicate Western policy in West Africa, and “likely result in a further upsurge in jihadi violence in Burkina Faso given the fact that jihadi attacks, perpetrated by both JNIM and the Islamic State, have increased dramatically across Mali since Wagner’s deployment there just over a year ago.” In our interview, Brigadier General Rose Keravuori, the Deputy Director of Intelligence at the United States Africa Command, observes that “for al-Qa`ida and ISIS, the most operationally active and financially lucrative affiliates are on the African continent.” She warns that Islamic State groups are looking to grow in southern and central Africa and that in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, the al-Qa`ida affiliate JNIM “has grown exponentially, so much so that the littoral countries of Ghana, Togo, and Benin view it as an existential threat.” Stig Jarle Hansen writes that “there are reasons to be optimistic that the current Somali offensive against al-Shabaab could enduringly weaken the group. The operations have gained momentum and demonstrated that the Somali army has made large improvements over the last decade. The use of local clan militias as well as U.S. and Turkish drone support have acted as force multipliers, and the Somali government is finally making a concerted effort to go after al-Shabaab’s income generation.” He argues that “what will be key is to erode al-Shabaab’s ability to infiltrate government-controlled areas and to govern, tax, and implement ‘justice’ in these areas. In the past, this has been crucial to al-Shabaab resilience and income. Accordingly, there needs to be more focus on a ‘clear and hold’ strategy rather than just ‘search and destroy.’”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Jihad, Al Shabaab, and Wagner Group
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Burkina Faso

27. Exiting Somalia's Political Impasse

Author:
Hilal Khashan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This paper argues that Somalia's Weberian state apparatus and legal-rational bureaucratic model need revision. Given the country's clan -based societal organization and dominant agrarian and pastoral economy, an alternative form of government that includes clan leaders, businesspeople, and urban-based nongovernmental organizations works best for Somalia. In such a system, the central government is a moderator articulating and aggregating diverse demands instead of power monopolizing. The success of the Islamic Courts and alShabaab Movement in working with the local population in their areas of control suggests that an informal form of government is more suitable for Somalia's traditional society than a formal system based on the concept of anonymous citizenship that is alien to the local value system. The unpropitious legacy of colonialism, and the failure of its democracy during the 1960s, leading to civil strife, wars, foreign intervention, and state failure that continue to grip Somalia validate the paper's research approach.
Topic:
Fragile/Failed State, Piracy, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

28. Ending the use of child soldiers

Author:
Alistair Taylor, Mick Mulroy, and Eric Oehlerich
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Mick Mulroy and Eric Oehlerich, Senior Fellows with MEI’s Defense & Security Program and the Co-founders of the Lobo Institute and End Child Soldiering, to discuss efforts to stop the recruitment and use of children in combat and rehabilitate former child soldiers. The use of child soliders is a widespread global problem that has a disproportionate impact on the broader Middle East, especially in Yemen, Syria, Sudan, and Somalia.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Rehabilitation, and Child Soldiers
Political Geography:
Sudan, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, and Somalia

29. Preventing jihadist expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Dino Krause
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
During the first half of 2023, levels of jihadist violence increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Burkina Faso and Somalia, while remaining particularly high in eastern Congo (DRC), Mali, and Nigeria, which are only some of the most heavily affected countries across the continent. Jihadist groups also continue to seek access to new areas. Particularly concerning is the growing evidence of jihadist expansion from Burkina Faso into some of the Gulf of Guinea states, especially Benin and Togo. Although sub-Saharan Africa comprises a diverse set of countries and regions, some overall trends emerge. Two crucial factors that enable jihadist groups to gain a foothold, across various country-specific contexts, are poor local governance and governments’ human rights violations against civilians. Statistical evidence shows that jihadist groups are significantly more likely to expand to countries where these conditions are given. At the same time, once they have managed to establish themselves in a new context, there is often a circular dynamic: Jihadist presence tends to undermine the ability of governments to provide effective governance, and governments also tend to violate human rights in their attempts to quell jihadist violence. When engaging with local governments in sub-Saharan Africa, the EU and its Member States should therefore place particular emphasis on measures that address these dynamics.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Terrorism, European Union, and History
Political Geography:
Nigeria, Somalia, Mali, Burkina Faso, Congo, and Sub-Saharan Africa

30. Out of the Box: How to Rebalance U.S. Somalia Policy

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
U.S. President Joe Biden promised to end the “forever wars” launched after the 9/11 attacks. In Somalia, however, his administration has reinvigorated a flawed military-first approach to battling Islamist militants. Washington should complement those efforts with others aimed at stabilisation and political reconciliation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, Islamism, Reconciliation, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, Somalia, and United States of America