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12. From Conflict to Collaboration: Co-funding Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia
- Author:
- Kheira Tarif
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. Its climate-related vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the enduring effects of more than three decades of violent conflict and fragmented governance. As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, their interaction with social, economic and political realities threatens to create challenges that are complex and difficult to address. There is a need for policies and programmes that tackle climate change and conflict in tandem, but gaps persist in knowledge and evidence to inform actions under such policies and programmes. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia uses a co-funding mechanism for facilitating collaboration between groups in conflict on addressing shared local priorities. In south-central Somalia, IOM has applied the co-funding mechanism to projects that aim to address local climate-related vulnerabilities, build relationships between communities in conflict and strengthen the role of district councils. This policy brief finds that elements of this approach to project design can support environmental peacebuilding in contexts exposed to climate change and affected by conflict and offers recommendations for organizations and other donors with relevant mandates.
- Topic:
- Environment, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
13. Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Few countries are more exposed to the ill effects of climate change than Somalia. Insecurity compounds the problem, with the Al-Shabaab insurgency exploiting drought conditions as a means of social control. Mogadishu needs help in dealing with the nexus of armed conflict and weather shocks.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Insurgency, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
14. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America
15. April 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Michael Knights, Sean Morrow, Asher Spain, Kevin Jackson, and Paul D. Williams
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights provides a highly detailed assessment of the six-month Houthi war effort that has seen the Tehran-backed group launch missiles at Israel and attack shipping off the coasts of Yemen. He assesses that: “The Houthis have used the Gaza crisis to vault into the front ranks of the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance,’ arguably as the only axis partner to truly globalize the conflict through their anti-shipping attacks on the approaches to the Suez Canal. The movement has demonstrated boldness—as the first axis member to fire ballistic missiles at Israel—and resilience in the face of U.S.-U.K. airstrikes. The Houthis are likely to emerge from the war as a more confident, ambitious, and aggressive terrorist army, with a taste for provocative and eye-catching acts of defiance against Israel and the United States.” Our interview is with Colonel (Ret.) Miri Eisin, the director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University who previously served in a variety of senior intelligence roles in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). She stresses the need to learn lessons from the intelligence failures that preceded the Hamas-led October 7 attack so that Israel is not surprised again, for example with regard to the kind of threat Hezbollah could pose in the coming months. “All of us made wrong assumptions, and the combination of all of them brought about a colossal failure,” she says. “We collectively were wrong about the capability. We were wrong about the intentions. We were wrong about the ferocity.” Kévin Jackson assesses the current state of al-Qa`ida Central. He writes that “while the challenges facing the group are real, it should not be written off, as it has proved time and again more resilient than expected.” He adds that “in the wake of the Gaza war, al-Qa`ida likely feels emboldened by what it perceives as a uniquely auspicious geopolitical context to further its global ambitions.” The African Union is set to withdraw the remainder of its forces from Somalia by December 31, 2024. Paul Williams evaluates whether the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab would be stronger militarily if this happens. He writes that “the SNA would retain an advantage in terms of size, material resources, and external support but performs poorly on non-material dimensions and would remain dependent upon external finance and security assistance. Overall, however, al-Shabaab would be slightly militarily stronger because of its significant advantages across the non-material dimensions related to force employment, cohesion, and psychological operations, as well as the sustainability of its forces.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Houthis, African Union, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Somalia
16. Unheard Water Stories from Asia, Africa and MENA: Elevating local voices for water security in a climate insecure world
- Author:
- Nuzhat Nueary
- Publication Date:
- 11-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This paper shares stories from six countries—Bangladesh, Nepal, Kenya, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq—highlighting the challenges communities face in accessing water. It seeks to bring forward the unique perspectives of communities from diverse backgrounds, each experiencing water crises in distinct ways. While climate change intensifies their crises, many communities also face marginalization due to exclusionary water governance. The impacts are further compounded by factors such as gender, poverty, ethnicity, and race. However, the voices and perspectives of these communities are often overlooked in global climate discussions.The paper aims to highlight these diverse community experiences and advocate for the inclusion of local voices and leadership in climate actions and interventions to ensure fairer access to water. As global climate events like COP-29 unfold, it calls on governments to create inclusive climate policies, integrate water issues into loss and damage discussions, actively involve women and local voices, and urge rich, polluting nations to compensate those most affected by historic and ongoing carbon emissions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Water, Governance, Climate Finance, Land Rights, Drought, Loss and Damage (L&D), Gender Equality, Water Insecurity, and Salinity
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Nepal, Syria, and Somalia
17. The United Nations Support Office Model: Lessons from Somalia
- Author:
- Paul D. Williams
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- The UN support office model, developed over the past fifteen years in Somalia, has been a vital tool in enabling African Union (AU) missions to operate effectively. The UN support office in Somalia has performed essential functions, including logistical support, casualty evacuation, airlift, and long-distance resupply for AU forces. It is now being examined with increased interest to determine whether a similar support package might be deployed in other theaters. This report considers the conditions under which such a UN support package might be usefully deployed to assist non–UN-led peace operations and host state security forces in other contexts. First, it provides an overview and analysis of the two UN support offices in Somalia and their main activities. Second, it identifies the major lessons from the Somali case, focusing on the importance of integrated decision making, the scope and scale of the support package, accountability and compliance issues, personnel systems, and the need to prepare for the mission’s transition and eventual exit. Finally, it reflects on how a UN support package might be designed and deployed in other theaters beyond Somalia. The report concludes that the UN support office model is now a viable part of the UN’s conflict management toolbox for supporting non-UN peace operations. However, the overriding lesson from the Somali case is that this model can only work effectively if the principal partners accept shared responsibilities and shared accountabilities. If the principal partners cannot or will not deliver on their shared responsibilities and accountabilities, the support office model will break down. To avoid such a breakdown, the partners must develop a workable process for making collaborative and genuinely joint decisions. Another key issue to address in deploying this model elsewhere will be determining the UN’s role in building national security forces as part of its exit strategy.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Regional Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia