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1. Brexit and the Union

Author:
Mary C. Murphy, Michael Keating, David Bell, Nicola McEwen, Michael Kenny, Jac Larner, Dan Wincott, and Kirsty Hughes
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
What challenges does leaving the European Union pose for the Unions of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? On 3 February the Centre on Constitutional Change launched their latest report, Brexit and the Union where their fellows discuss some of the issues Brexit presents for the UK’s territorial and constitutional future. This report looks at: Brexit and Ireland/Northern Ireland’s Constitutional Future The Internal Market Post-Brexit Regional Funds and Fisheries Arrangements Brexit: Exposing the Limits of Devolved Authority England’s Territorial Politics After Brexit Wales: Where Next? Brexit, Scotland and Europe
Topic:
Markets, European Union, Brexit, and Fishing
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

2. Great Britain and the European Union Beyond Brexit

Author:
Ana Muhar Blanquart
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Brexit is a term coined of the words “British exit”, referring to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. First used in 2012 by the founder of the British Influence think-tank Peter Wilding, it became the most frequently used political term in 2016, the year when the British electorate chose to leave the European Union and thus change the political landscape of the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

3. Britain's Uncertain Brexit March

Author:
Marko Attila Hoare
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The popular vote of the UK on 23 June 2016 to leave the EU has been politically an earthquake for the first and a shock to the second. Retrospectively, the outcome was likely, given the structural factors both within Britain and between Britain and the EU. Yet these same factors have obstructed a clear British post- referendum strategy for secession: Britain Britain’s relationship to Europe is traditionally ambiguous. Britain’s identity - of a Protestant island-state formed in 1707 from the Anglo- Scottish union - was cemented during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in wars against the Catholic powers of continental Europe. It was successively reinforced by Napoleon’s anti-British Continental System; does not know what kind of Brexit it wants, or whether it wants one at all. This briefing will examine the causes of the Brexit revolution and the reasons for its uncertain execution, before considering the likely outcome.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Europe Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales

4. Countdown for Brexit: What to Expect for UK, EU and Turkey?

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and Secession
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, and European Union

5. The EU should prepare for all UK post-election scenarios

Author:
Larissa Brunner
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
With the UK elections imminent, Larissa Brunner lays out three different scenarios depending on the outcome. None offer any reason for the EU to be optimistic. If the Conservatives win, the Withdrawal Agreement will probably be passed, providing short-term predictability and certainty. But any long-term deal will probably be much worse than the status quo. A Labour victory would mean the opposite: further short-term uncertainty until the new government has renegotiated another Brexit deal and held a second referendum, but a possible closer relationship in the long run (assuming the Leave vote is confirmed). A hung Parliament would combine the worst of both worlds. And then there’s the Scottish question. Regardless of whether the new government needs SNP support or not, the political pressure on London to endorse a second independence vote is likely to increase. The EU should, therefore, not take its eye off the ball and use the current respite in the Brexit process to prepare itself for all of the possible post-election scenarios.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

6. Brexit and Renewables in Scotland

Author:
Nicola McEwen, Aileen McHarg, Fiona Munro, Paul Cairney, Karen Turner, and Antonios Katris
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This briefing paper considers the extent to which renewables in Scotland are shaped by the policy responsibilities and decisions of multiple governments: the Scottish government, the UK government and the EU. The paper explores the significance of EU membership in shaping Scottish renewables and considers the likely effects of the UK’s exit from the EU. Despite limited constitutional power, promoting renewables has been a key priority for successive Scottish governments, central to both its environmental and economic policies. While the main policy drivers rest with the UK government, stakeholders in Scotland place importance on the EU regulatory framework, EU funding and finance, multinational cooperation and long-term strategic thinking in supporting the development of renewables in Scotland. The briefing identifies varying levels of concern among key stakeholders with regard to the impact that Brexit may have on renewables in Scotland. Many expect policy continuity, irrespective of the UK-EU relationship. Others are fearful of the uncertainty surrounding access to the EU internal market, access to project funding, access to labour and expertise, and added costs and delays in supply chains in an industry heavily reliant on kit from the EU. The biggest impact of Brexit to date has been the dominance of the issue on the political agenda, leaving little space for policy development in other areas, including energy. In addition to the regulatory, financial and trade challenges it may generate, Brexit has also reignited the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future, creating further uncertainties for the future of renewables.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Constitution, Brexit, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

7. UK-born children of EU nationals in the UK: historical, national and local perspectives

Author:
Nando Sigona
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This research shows that the share of births to at least one EU parent has been increasing since the mid-2000s. In 2016 it was 12% of all births in England and Wales, 13% in Northern Ireland, and 10% in Scotland. The study also shows a change in the main countries of birth of EU parents, where the share of births to mothers and fathers from 2004 accession countries has increased.
Topic:
Children, European Union, Citizenship, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales

8. Brexit and its discontents

Author:
Janko Bekić
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
In the weeks following June 23rd, the day of the historic Brexit vote, it seemed as if the United Kingdom was on the brink of dissolution. Exasperated by the prospect of Scotland being dragged out of the European Union against the clearly expressed will of its population (62 percent voted “remain”), Scottish First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon announced the preparation of a second independence referendum, which – if successful – would sever Scotland’s ties with the UK, and keep it in the EU. Emboldened by SNP’s move, Sinn Fein’s deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland Martin McGuinness called for a border poll on the uni�ication of Ireland. His line of reasoning was the same as Sturgeon’s: the majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted “remain” (56 percent) and would not be forced out of the EU by English and Welsh “leave” voters. Less than two years after the original Scottish independence referendum Downing Street was faced with a new wave of secessionism and separatism. It was generally accepted that the surprising result of the plebiscite on UK’s EU membership might persuade a portion of the “no” voters from the September 2014 Scottish independence referendum to change their minds and tip the scales in favour of secession. Namely, a considerable number of Scottish “no” voters in 2014 opted for the continuation of the union with England precisely out of fear that an independent Scotland would have to exit the EU and renegotiate its admission into the club. SNP’s rationale after June 23rd was that these people would now naturally join the pro-independence camp and help it pass the 50 percent hurdle. However, polling conducted by YouGov during the summer showed that 50 percent of Scots opposed a new referendum on independence, while only 37 percent supported it. If a new referendum was to be held nevertheless, 54 percent would vote against independence and 46 percent in favour – a shift of only one percent point compared to the original referendum which ended with the result 55 percent to 45 percent.
Topic:
Europe Union, Brexit, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Scotland, and Wales