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42. Prospects for Saudi Arabia-Israel Normalization
- Author:
- Alistair Taylor, Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Y. Saab
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- On this week's episode, MEI's Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
43. Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Game: The Palestinian Cause and Regional Leadership
- Author:
- Giulia Daga and Luigi Simonelli
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In the hours following Hamas’s violent attack on Israel of 7 October, the Saudi authorities called for “an immediate de-escalation”, while noting that they had previously warned against the outcomes of “the continued occupation and depriving Palestinians of their legitimate rights and the repeated systematic provocations against their sanctities”.[1] In a more recent declaration, the Saudi Foreign Minister has reiterated the country’s “categorical rejection of calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza, and its condemnation of the continued targeting of defenceless civilians there”.[2] Reportedly, the heavy retaliation measures adopted by Israel, whose bombing campaign against Gaza has been one of the most intense of this century,[3] also including the apparent use of white phosphorus,[4] resulted in the halt of the normalisation process between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which should have followed suit on the 2020 Abraham Accords. Only a few weeks before, on 20 September, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had announced on US television that “every day, we get closer” to an agreement with Israel.[5] A few days later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reiterated the same optimism in front of the United Nations General Assembly general debate, insisting that the Palestinians should not be given “a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Regional Power, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
44. How Saudi Arabia Bent China to Its Technoscientific Ambitions
- Author:
- Mohammed Al-Sudairi, Steven Jiawei Hai, and Kameal Alahmad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Technoscientific cooperation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Arab states has blossomed in recent years.1 The phrase itself has become an official “watchword” (tifa) in the context of Sino-Arab relations, suffusing nearly every official policy paper or statement on the Arab world from Beijing, including its Arab Policy Paper (2016), the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum Action Plan (2020), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Report on Sino-Arab Cooperation in the New Era (2022).2 Yet this newly hailed “breakthrough” (tupo) has attracted both scrutiny and concern from Western officials and academics worried about their states’ influence in the Middle East and, perhaps more pertinently, the outcome of their perceived ongoing global competition with China. The anti-Huawei campaign waged across the Gulf states by American officials during the end of Donald Trump’s presidency and the beginning of Joe Biden’s was animated by questions shaped by these anxieties: Will access to, and adoption of, Chinese technologies lead to the diffusion of new distinctively “Chinese” norms and standards (such as Chinese conceptions of cyber sovereignty) or barriers to unfettered Western market access over the long run? Will these same technologies compromise national digital ecosystems and infrastructures, thereby allowing the PRC to access sensitive information surrounding Western technologies and military deployments in the region while imposing its own distinctively Chinese vision on the region? And to what extent will these processes of technoscientific borrowing embolden authoritarianism and potentially take these states out of a Western security orbit?3 Such questions are neither new nor limited to the Middle East. The PRC’s complicated entanglements in Africa over the past few decades have produced similar-sounding concerns from the West surrounding a range of issues including Chinese “debt trap diplomacy” and resource exploitation, to which scholars such as Deborah Brautigam, Ching Kwan Lee, and Lina Benabdallah have provided nuanced counternarratives.4 Inspired by these works’ emphasis on local factors that China adapts to rather than the “Chinese ways” that Beijing and its proxies ostensibly impose, and also seeking to address some of the (primarily) Western apprehensions on Sino-Arab technoscientific cooperation, this paper focuses on a single regional actor—the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a major comprehensive strategic partner (quanmian zhanlüe huoban) of the PRC.5 The paper is anchored by the contention that technoscientific development in Saudi Arabia reflects, above all, the objectives and strategies of the Saudi state in its pursuit of technoscientific self-strengthening. In approaching this topic from a local perspective, this analysis seeks to upend conventional narratives that view these transformations mainly through the prism of China’s rise, or that of the U.S.-China rivalry. There are dreamers and planners beyond those in the Beltway and Zhongnanhai, such as those in al-Yamamah Palace, and their ambitions must be taken into account in understanding the nature, scope, intensity, velocity, and specifics of their collaborations with China. The paper is divided into three sections. The first discusses the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s approach to technoscientific development. It serves to shed light on the underlying logic guiding the kingdom’s global search for technoscientific partnerships. The second focuses on Chinese-Saudi technoscientific cooperation and localization projects, providing a general overview of the history of such cooperation followed by a discussion of some of its structural trends and impediments in terms of human resources, the circulation of capital, and the role of the state versus the private sector. The third and final section dwells on some of the key takeaways and contextualizing lessons based on the previous sections’ findings.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia
45. Türkiye in the MENA Region: A Foreign Policy Reset
- Author:
- Valeria Talbot
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Türkiye's foreign policy has been driven by efforts to reset relations with regional competitors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the redefinition of the US role in the region, Ankara’s renewed diplomatic activism has been guided by the willingness to break from regional isolation, as well as the need to relieve Türkiye’s deteriorating economy. How did Türkiye ditch its ideological approach in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings to adopt a more pragmatic stance? And how is the process of rapprochement with other key actors in the MENA region playing out – namely Gulf monarchies, Israel and Egypt?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates
46. Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship
- Author:
- Jon Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-Saudi relationship is stuck. America’s policy toward the kingdom is rooted in flawed rationales and supported by a system of lobbying and influence designed to sustain the status quo. Those policies are proving ineffective at navigating the changing landscape, both in the Middle East and globally, while reaping virtually no benefits for the United States. The longer these fruitless policies persist, the more they will harm U.S. interests. The long-standing rationales for close U.S.-Saudi relations—centered on oil, counterterrorism, and preserving regional stability—are flawed. What Washington needs from the region on those issues is quite limited and simple to achieve. Despite the high costs and dubious benefits of the current approach to Saudi Arabia, there is a growing chorus in Washington to deepen the relationship with Riyadh. New rationales for expanding the relationship include the return of great power competition to the Middle East and the expansion of the Abraham Accords, which are increasingly being linked together as the new lodestar of Middle East policy. These new rationales also do not withstand scrutiny. It is time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Saudi relationship. The United States should approach Saudi Arabia as it would any other state that does not share our interests or our values: from arm’s length.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Political stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, and United States of America
47. Misperceptions of OPEC Capability and Behavior: Unmasking OPEC Theater
- Author:
- David Kemp and Peter Van Doren
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In the view of the American public, media, and politicians, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets oil prices by adjusting the amount of crude oil its members produce. However, the geological and engineering realities of oil extraction, the inconclusive academic evidence on the relationship between OPEC production and oil prices, and the cheating on oil production quotas by OPEC members and lack of enforcement all indicate that OPEC is more a political club than an effective oil cartel. In fact, three key members—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—have oil production volatility similar to the United States over the past three decades. This implies that these three important and politically stable OPEC nations do not possess, or do not utilize, a unique short-term capability to alter their oil production to regulate oil prices. Altogether, the evidence suggests that the attention paid to OPEC is mostly about political benefits to both OPEC members and Western leaders, not an actual ability to control the oil market. The OPEC members use their oil production as an international bargaining chip and the perception of influence over the West to gain domestic legitimacy. Western leaders are happy to reciprocate by using OPEC as a scapegoat for unpleasant oil supply or demand shocks. Based on this picture of OPEC, U.S. concerns about OPEC behavior are unfounded and legislative proposals to punish OPEC are misguided.
- Topic:
- Economics, Oil, OPEC, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
48. Arabia Saudita ante una disyuntiva, ¿Occidente u Oriente?
- Author:
- Federico Franceschini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- La reciente visita en diciembre de 2022 del presidente Xi Jinping a Riad ha sido motivo de intensos y preocupados análisis por parte de politólogos y analistas, que leyeron en la bienvenida otorgada al mandatario chino la culminación del alejamiento de Arabia Saudita de su alianza con Washington. Inmediatas fueron las comparaciones con el viaje en julio del presidente norteamericano Joe Biden. Los periodistas internacionales buscaron, analizando sonrisas y formas de saludos, encontrar diferencias de trato como elemento discriminante para un eventual favoritismo de una potencia sobre la otra.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
49. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Policy under MBS: decision unit change and its impacts towards Yemen and Syria
- Author:
- María José Roa
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Contexto Internacional
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
- Abstract:
- If Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy involves the containment of Iran’s proxies, why, under King Salman, did Saudi Arabia attack the Houthis in Yemen, but give up its attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria? I argue here that both decisions reflect Mohammed bin Salman’s willingness to seek ‘heterodox’ solutions in foreign policy, a feature that guided Saudi foreign policy in the face of a changing decision-making unit in the Saudi regime. While MBS’s influence in the case of Yemen is more easily identified, in the case of Syria this is not so straightforward. The crown prince only acquired the ability to manoeuvre Saudi policy towards Syria after consolidating his power within the regime, in 2017, and, from there, he put in place measures that, in practice, facilitated a coexistence arrangement between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In both cases, the objective was to contain the perceived Iranian advances in a scenario of reduced appetite by the United States to provide security for Saudi Arabia. This conclusion is reached through the use of a Foreign Policy Analysis approach, more specifically, the analysis of the decision-making units, to broaden and deepen the observations made from a regime security perspective.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Houthis, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), and Regime Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
50. Saudi-Houthi Talks Resume - The Yemen Review, August 2023
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The strategic city of Marib saw an increase in fighting on several fronts. The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions in the area, which they attempted to seize in a massive and costly offensive two years ago. Should negotiations break down, Marib is seen as a likely area of renewed contestation due to its oil and gas resources. A new counterterrorist campaign was launched in Abyan to target Al-Qaeda forces in the governorate. Named ‘Swords of Haws’, the operation is being conducted by an array of STC and pro-government forces. The campaign reported it had succeeded in securing the Rafd and Jenin Valleys, but had faced strong resistance from Al-Qaeda forces in Mudiya district. Frontline fighting on the border of Al-Bayda and Lahj rose significantly in August, including a particularly large Houthi assault on STC positions on August 26-27 that resulted in dozens of casualties. Two Doctors Without Borders employees were kidnapped by unidentified gunmen in Marib as they traveled from Seyoun. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident. An officer investigating last month’s killing of World Food Programme Moayad Hameidi was assassinated. The officer, a member of the Taiz Political Security department, had received death threats and demanded he halt the investigation. Five UN employees were released on August 11, after being held captive by Al-Qaeda for more than 18 months. The group was reportedly released after lengthy Omani mediation and the payment of a ransom, though the UN has disputed these claims. Houthi forces continue to besiege villages of the Bani Nawf tribe in Al-Jawf following the killing of a prominent local Houthi commander. A number of tribes have responded by calling for united action, others have sided with the Houthis.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Counter-terrorism, Economy, Houthis, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia