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2. Between violence, geopolitical competition, and the quest for social justice: Chad’s road to elections
- Author:
- Valerio Colosio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following three years of transitional government since President Idriss Déby’s assassination, Chad will hold presidential elections on 6 May amid tight political controls by the incumbent leader. In this guest contribution, Dr. Valerio Colosio examines political violence in Chad through two generations of Déby rule and whether the election will confirm the status quo or trigger some deeper transformations, in a moment of big geopolitical changes in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- Elections, Geopolitics, Social Justice, Violence, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Chad, and Sahel
3. Europe's role in the Sahel
- Author:
- Christine Nissen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sahel
4. Stabilisation and the Central Sahel
- Author:
- Ekaterina Golovko and Kars de Bruijne
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’. First, that ‘stabilisation responses’ are built on the wrong assumption “to bring back the state” and “expand state presence”, without serious work on how to reform the state that had to be brought back. Second, that external actors – and in particular Western governments – consistently overestimated their ability to influence and effect real change in the region and have to become more modest in their objectives. Third, that there is an urgent need to apply these lessons to the new area of policy attention: coastal countries of West Africa and the fight against violent extremism. This policy brief calls for a stronger reflection on what decades of largely failing Sahelian policy can tell us about how to engage with Coastal West Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Countering Violent Extremism, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
5. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups
- Author:
- Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America
6. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali
- Author:
- Holger Anders
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—investigates the arms, ammunition, explosives, and other materiel used in extremist attacks in Mali from 2015 to 2022, and the sources and pathways through which they were obtained.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, and Sahel
7. Global Terrorism Index 2024
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Peace, Organized Crime, Countering Violent Extremism, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Sahel and Global Focus
8. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa
9. Procurement by Proxy: How Sahelian Juntas Acquire Equipment from Ousted Security Partners
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- During the past two years military juntas in Mali and Niger have ousted three multilateral security missions in addition to French, and more recently American, forces deployed to fight jihadists in the two countries. Although being preceded by deteriorating relations, the decisions to kick out the international partners have been announced abruptly and the departures have been rushed as juntas have increased pressure for the missions to leave. After making the decision to oust the missions, the juntas have also mounted new obstacles for the missions and their departures, either taking, or forcing the missions to leave a large amount of equipment and material behind. This article argues that this is a deliberate strategy by the military juntas in Mali and Niger to acquire new equipment and material for their security forces, in some cases to be used with new security partners, such as Russia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Mali, Sahel, and Niger
10. Aligned in the sand: How Europeans can help stabilise the Sahel
- Author:
- Will Brown
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- A decade of military, humanitarian, and developmental European interventions in the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have failed comprehensively. Coups have swept the region. Burkina Faso is close to complete collapse. Europe thus faces three openly antagonistic military juntas on its southern flank, which are cutting deals with rival outside powers like Russia. The combination of past failure, disinformation campaigns, and the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have scattered European states’ approaches in all directions. Some have walked away from the Sahel completely. Others have stayed but resisted cooperation with the Sahelian juntas. A few have sought to remain engaged. European governments should stay involved in the Sahel wherever possible. The region is part of Europe’s neighbourhood; rival outside powers have no qualms about mass human-rights abuses; and further disengagement will only open up new inroads for malign actors. For European governments, this means frankly acknowledging past failures in the Sahel, gathering behind a new strategy for engagement, and supporting Gulf of Guinea states. A particular focus should be funding anti-disinformation policies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Military Intervention, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Sahel