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841. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

842. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Key Trends and Key Numbers

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems, but today I'm going to focus as much on f act s and numbers as possible. I'm only going to select only a portion of the key trends and numbers involved in my oral remarks , but I will leave the conference with a much longer paper that lists a fuller range of such data. This paper that will also be on the CSIS web site, along with a series of very detailed papers on the military balance in the Gulf. If you want to provide me with your card, I'll also make sure the papers involved are sent to your directly.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar

843. Assessing a Deal or Non-deal with Iran: The Critical Issue of Iran's Progress in Weapons Research, Development, and Production Capability.

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It now seems unlikely that the P5+1 countries of the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany can reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran by the end of November. A final agreement remains a possibility, but it seems far more likely that if an agreement is not reached, the negotiations will be extended rather than abandoned all together. The question then arises as to how to judge the outcome of this set of negotiations, be it an actual agreement, an extension, or the collapse of the negotiations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, France, and Germany

844. US and Russia Can End Use of Weapons-Usable Uranium for Medical Uses

Author:
Miles A. Pomper
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
A new report co-authored by CNS Senior Research Associate Miles Pomper recommends steps for the United States and Russia to cooperate in ending Russian use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in medical isotope production, an important step in keeping this nuclear weapons material from terrorists. Great progress has been achieved in recent years in minimizing civilian use of HEU as part of the international efforts to reduce the nuclear terrorism threat. In particular, the leading global suppliers of the molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) isotope, which is widely used in medical diagnostics, are taking steps to reduce and, in the medium time frame, completely eliminate the use of HEU in the production of medical isotopes. Major new steps towards phasing out HEU use in medical isotopes production could be announced at the Nuclear Security Summit that will take place in The Hague on March 24-25, 2014. The Russian nuclear industry has set for itself an ambitious goal of becoming one of the three top global suppliers of Mo-99, used in 80 per cent of the medical procedures involving isotopes particularly as a diagnostic tool. Growing Russian production could help stabilize the global Mo-99 market, which faced severe shortages on several occasions in 2005-2013. According to some estimates, in 2010 during a six month period medical facilities around the world were unable to perform diagnostic procedures for several million people due to the shortage of Mo-99; the shortfall was estimated at 7 million doses. However, until recently, Russia had been bucking global trends by planning to use HEU fuels and targets rather than safer low enriched uranium (LEU) for much of this production. The ‘Ending HEU Use in Medical Isotope Production: Options for Russian-US Cooperation’ report co-authored by the Moscow-based Center for Energy for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) analyses what can be done by Moscow and Washington to harmonize the Russian producers’ plans to win a share of the global market, while at the same time facilitating the Russian nuclear industry’s transition to new market requirements for producing Mo-99 without HEU.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

845. Iran and the BRICS: The Energy Factor

Author:
Akbar Valizadeh and Seyyed Mohammad Houshialsadat
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The global economy is undergoing a paradigm shift, from a Western-dominated economic model to one that is more complex and multi-polar. The centres of consumption, production, and innovation are no longer concentrated solely in the Western economies, but are shifting to new emergence economies in different continents, specifically China, Russia, Brazil, and India, as well as South Africa, named BRICS. One of the central issues for the future of this new coalition is energy security. This concept is a top priority of policymakers not only in the West hemisphere, but also in countries of the economically emerging world in current and also coming decades. Worldwide demand for primary energy will increase in next years either and based on international forecasts, hydrocarbon will still be the dominant source of energy. Consequently, widespread energy relationships with other oil and gas-rich countries outside BRICS like OPEC, in general, and Iran, in particular, seems much more significant. The latter, as the second country throughout the world in terms of combined fossil reserves, benefits an outstanding geo-economic position. Obviously, Iran would be able to play a prominent role in this respect. So, this question could be raised that what are the main challenges, as well as opportunities for Iran and BRICS in any actual and potential interactions in energy field?
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, India, South Africa, and Brazil

846. Great Game, Local Rules and the New Great Power Context in Central Asia By Alexander Cooley

Author:
John Herbst
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
In Great Game, Local Rules the New Great Power Contest in Central Asia, Alexander Cooley develops an excellent analytical framework for looking at the activities of China, Russia and the United States in Central Asia. Cooley offers three broad arguments. First, he observes that the three big powers have pursued different goals in Central Asia, which has meant that their interests do not necessarily conflict. China's main objective has been to stabilize Xinjiang by ensuring cooperative relationships on Xinjiang's border. This prompted beijing to resolve border disputes with kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and kazakhstan on favorable terms for its Central Asian neighbors. The U.S. has sought to stabilize Afghanistan by establishing supply and base arrangements in Central Asia. Despite the ups and downs with Tashkent which led to the closing of the U.S. base at karshi khanabad in 2005, washington has largely achieved its objectives in the region. Russia has sought to remain the major power or hegemon in the region. Despite this ambitious goal, Moscow has been willing to accept efforts by the U.S. to establish bases in Central Asia because it also is interested in containing, if not defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, and Kazakhstan

847. CYPRUS, A RUSSIAN FOOTHOLD IN THE CHANGING EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

Author:
Igor Delanoe
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
Russian interests in the Eastern Mediterranean have been highlighted both by the country's diplomatic and naval activity related to the Syrian crisis as well as by its stance on economic and energy issues in Cyprus. During the 2000s, Moscow's influence on the island has steadily increased, making Cyprus a new Russian foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. While Moscow's ties with Nicosia have served Russia's Mediterranean energy interests, they have also revived tensions with Turkey. In the context of the ongoing Syrian crisis, the Kremlin's growing involvement in Cyprus sheds new light on the Russia-Cyprus partnership.
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Moscow, and Syria

848. RUSSO-TURKISH DIVERGENCE (PART II): THE ENERGY DIMENSION

Author:
Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
Energy issues figure prominently in the Russo-Turkish relationship. Their impact is not nearly as clear-cut as are the Iranian and Syrian issues. Turkey and Russia have a complex, evolving relationship characterized by mutual dependencies in the oil and gas spheres. As Richard Weitz stated, “Energy relations between Russia and Turkey have long been characterized by overt friendship and subtle competition.”
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, and Syria

849. RUSSO-TURKISH DIVERGENCE (PART I): THE SECURITY DIMENSION

Author:
Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
Since the early 1990s, Turkey and Russia's strategic outlooks have gradually been converging. The two countries have incrementally shed their mutual apprehensions and started a comprehensive and multifaceted cooperation. Turkish–Russian interaction in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Mediterranean reveals that there might be limits to the future expansion of their partnership.
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, and Middle East

850. BETWEEN TURKEY, RUSSIA, AND PERSIA: PERCEPTIONS OF NATIONAL IDENTITY IN AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA AT THE TURN OF THE NINETEENTH AND TWENTIETH CENTURIES

Author:
Emil Souleimanov
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Middle East Review of International Affairs
Institution:
Global Research in International Affairs Center, Interdisciplinary Center
Abstract:
This article traces the emergence of the modern national identities of Azerbaijanis and Armenians back to the last quarter of the nineteenth century. In doing so, it emphasizes the ways national identities were shaped by Azerbaijani and Armenian intellectual elites, reflecting their historical heritage of being parts of Turkish, Persian, and Russian empires. Accordingly, the evolution of mutual perceptions of Azerbaijanis and Armenians vis-à-vis their imperial neighbors–and vice versa–is highlighted. The article focuses on the period of the second half of the nineteenth century until 1920/1921, when following a two-year intermezzo of independent states in the South Caucasus, both Armenia and Azerbaijan were effectively incorporated into the emerging Soviet Union.
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Persia