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801. AFRICA AND THE EMERGING POWERS: THE SOUTH AND THE UNHOLY COOPERATION

Author:
Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
One of the most remarkable phenomena of Contemporary International Relations is the fact that Africa became object of a new global race, like in the end of the 19th Century. In the beginning of the 21st Century, however, the most dynamic protagonists of such movement are the emerging powers, and not the European metropolises. Such process occurs in a frame of economic and social development in Africa, besides a diplomatic protagonism, which represented an unexpected feature for many. Africa, in marks of globalization and the end of the Cold War, experienced a second "lost decade", with bloody internationalized civil wars, epidemics (HIV/AIDS, cholera and the Ebola virus, among others) and economic marginalization.
Topic:
International Relations and Cold War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, Canada, and India

802. Vladimir Putin's long—and very dangerous—game

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin is exploiting the Ukrainian revolution-specifically, by manufacturing "crises" in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and nationalist euphoria and anti-Western paranoia at home-to fashion a more repressive and increasingly unpredictable Russian dictatorship for life. With the Russian economy heading for recession, the Putin regime's popularity largely depends on Russia's foreign policy successes, which Putin hopes to achieve by humiliating, destabilizing, and eventually derailing Ukraine; by cajoling the West into rejecting sanctions against Russia; and by fueling Russian patriotism. The West should, in an effort spearheaded by the United States, aim its sanctions at increasing the costs of the regime's malignant transformation rather than simply attempting to dissuade Moscow from further action in eastern Ukraine.
Topic:
International Law, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Ukraine

803. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe - that led to war and not yet to peace

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine , the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues . The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiation s currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

804. Geneva Action Plan: Its Nature and Implications

Author:
Nasser Saghafi-Ameri and Pirooz Izadi
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The adoption of the Geneva Accord between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China plus Germany) to resolve issues related to Iran's nuclear program on November 24, 2013, brought about a series of debates in political circles. In many ways, it could be considered a historic event with international and regional implications and also ushered in a new chapter in Iran-U.S. relations. At the international level, it could have a great impact on the ways in which world affairs are managed. In fact, it was a victory for diplomacy, multilateralism and a thrust towards a multi-polar international system after more than a decade of unilateralism and military interventionist policies with all its catastrophic consequences. At the regional level, by fostering new alignments, it may have a positive impact on current problems; be it elimination of weapons of mass destruction or countering terrorism and extremism that is now expanding beyond the region. The Accord in Geneva also fosters hope for solid and productive relations between Iran and the U.S. after more than three decades of estrangement. Considering that a new geostrategic situation is unfolding in the region, this article tries to answer the questions related to its international and regional implications, as well as its impact on the very delicate issue of Iran-U.S. relations. At the end, some of the major challenges that lay ahead in the implementation of the Accord are examined.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Geneva, Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, East Asia, France, and Germany

805. Iran and Kazakhstan Relations: A Geopolitical Analysis

Author:
Elaleh Kooalee, Amir Ebrahimi, and Simin Shirazi Mougouee
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Kazakhstan needs the short transit route leading to open waters to supply its demands and export oil and gas to international markets. Iran's territorial status in the heart of Eurasia, has offered new capabilities for commerce, industry, and development to this country. But some factors such as the geopolitics of the region, having the second largest resources of energy in the world, and willingness to allow the presence of trans-regional powers with the aim to reduce dependence on Russia and attract foreign investment, has resulted in the presence of these powers in this country and has created serious obstacles for Iran's more effective participation. The main question of this paper is how has Iran benefited from the opportunity to develop relations with Kazakhstan? The authors analyze the most important factors regarding Iran's geopolitical position and status with regards to the development of its relations with Kazakhstan.
Topic:
Development and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Caspian Sea

806. Iran and the P5+1: Getting to "Yes"

Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
That nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, U.S. and Germany) were extended beyond the 20 July 2014 deadline was neither unexpected nor unwelcome. The parties ha d made enough headway to justify the extension, which was envisioned in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) that was signed in November 2013 and came into force in January, but given the political and technical complexity, they remain far apart on fundamental issues. Unless they learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran's enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial- scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, and France

807. Debt Sanctions Can Help Ukraine and Fill a Gap in the International Financial System

Author:
Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The escalating crisis in Ukraine has prompted the United States and Europe to impose the toughest economic sanctions against Russia since the end of the Cold War. Continued instability and military conflict in eastern Ukraine are straining Ukrainian finances. Despite a generous international support package, the government faces shrinking revenues, rising costs, and a spike in foreign debt payments over the next two years.
Topic:
Cold War, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Asia

808. Divided Stands the Visegrad? The V4 have been united towards the Ukraine crisis but remain split concerning Russia

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The destabilization of Ukraine and the possible escalation of the crisis have presented a direct security risk to the Visegrad countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - particularly concerning military security, the potential interruption of energy transit, and the possible influx of refugees. These factors have forced the Visegrad states to show unprecedented unity and activism in addressing the crisis. However, regarding the possibility of sanctioning Russia, the Visegrad Group is unable to take a joint position. The main reason for this is that Russia does not pose a direct military threat to the region. Consequently the individual policies of the Visegrad countries towards Russia are defined by a constellation of geopolitical concerns, normative motivations, business interests and domestic political ambitions, which are decidedly different in all four cases. Domestic political motivations, such as the will to increase domestic legitimacy, and concerns over the economic effects of sanctions, obviously influence the foreign policy actions of the Visegrad governments. However, Viktor Orbán of Hungary was the only one to break the Visegrad solidarity on Ukraine with his domestically-motivated remarks in May 2014 and demanding autonomy for Hungarians living in the Trans-Carpathian region. As most normative, business and domestic political motivations are of a lasting strategic nature, it is highly likely that the general incoherence of the Visegrad region regarding Russia will prevail.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Poland

809. Table of Contents

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:
Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:
Sovereignty at sea: the law and politics of saving lives in mare liberum Tanja E Aalberts and Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen When 'blurring' becomes the norm and secession is justified as the exception: revisiting EU and Russian discourses in the common neighbourhood Eiki Berg and Martin Mölder Foreign policy analysis, globalisation and non-state actors: state-centric after all? Rainer Baumann and Frank A Stengel Regional integration and the challenge of overlapping memberships on trade Mwita Chacha Practicality by judgement: transnational interpreters of local ownership in the Polish-Ukrainian border reform encounter Xymena Kurowska.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

810. When 'blurring' becomes the norm and secession is justified as the exception: revisiting EU and Russian discourses in the common neighbourhood

Author:
Eiki Berg and Martin Mölder
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Relations and Development
Institution:
Central and East European International Studies Association
Abstract:
This paper takes a closer look at the discourses of the EU and Russia in relation to the ground-breaking events in Kosovo (1999/2008) and the South Caucasus (2008) while digging deep into the discursive practices and contextual aspects of these conflicts. We will argue that, on a more abstract level, the EU and Russia were applying the same logic of discourse - either professing humanitarian concerns, including 'responsibility to protect', or emphasising 'obligation to refrain' - across these similar instances of intervention and secession declared to be exceptions by both. Across these cases, both actors were not only blurring the common understanding of these terms and the rules of their application in practice, but also advancing implicitly such blurring as, in fact, a norm. However, when the principles in relation to secession are blurred, it is easy to follow the examples of both Russia as well as the EU, depicting specific instances of secession selectively as exceptions and legitimating one's essentially arbitrary behaviour vis-à-vis the professed international norms.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Russia